Have you been keeping up with the latest COVID variants? Let's review:
- January 2023: Omicron XBB 1.5 becomes dominant.
- July: Two variants, EG.5 and FL.5.1, dubbed FLips because of their specific mutations, become prominent.
- October: HV.1, a mutation of EG.5, becomes prominent.
- Now: JN.1, nicknamed Pirola, starts to appear. It isn't prominent yet, but it's projected to become strong by the end of the year.
Put all of this together and the forecast for this winter is in the range of 1 million infections per day (green line in chart):
This is considerably milder than the Omicron surge of winter 2022, which peaked at about 5 million infections per day, but bigger than the beta and delta surges of 2020-21 and about the same size as the BA.1 surge last winter. However, the mortality rate will be much smaller since a huge share of the population is now either vaccinated or has had COVID before.
However, the mortality rate will be much smaller since a huge share of the population is now either vaccinated or has had COVID before.
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Is mortality down because the virus has mutated to be less HOST-ile? Or is it because some set of genomic factors produce an environment in which it thrives, and the folks who have that set of factors have all died off?
It could be either. Or some of both.
Ever since coronoaviruses have been associated with "the common cold" [three species] I've wondered if the Sweating Sickness was a Covid organism which only could survive itself by being easier on its hosts.
Mortality is down because, in part, the virus moved away from infecting lungs.
The other part is the widespread imprint of the virus onto immune systems, either through prior infection or by vaccination, which gives T-cells a memory of the virus.
Each variant that becomes dominant among the dozens in the wild is more transmissible than the previous dominant strain, so not less HOST-ile.
Stories about Long Covid have sort of dropped out of the headlines. Last year, it sounded like we were all doomed to a future where half the population would be reduced to living on SSDI. Has Long Covid just turned out to be, well, not so long, or did reporters just see something else shiny to write about and we've forgotten about it?
Long-COVID hasn't disappeared. Some research suggests a higher susceptibility to PASC after repeated infections, but that might be offset by the lower risk of PASC from current variants.
Don't sound the "All Clear" just yet. Over at the Daily Kos, Mark Sumner - noted an article in Lancet showing Long Covid still affecting 54% of Chinese people who got infected 3 years later. Other articles summarized in World Health Network show that COVID directly damages the immune system, leading to MORE infections of other infectious diseases. Measles and the flu also show these behaviors - weakening the victim and making them more susceptible to subsequent infection.
Here's the link to Sumner's article
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" However, the mortality rate will be much smaller since a huge share of the population is now either vaccinated or has had COVID before."
The first part isn't correct. Previous vaccinations don't give any protection, only the boosters and having had Covid do. Only 8% to 12% of Americans will get an mRNA booster shot from October 2023 through March 2024.
Previous vaccinations do give protection. The virus is imprinted onto your immune system. We don't yet know how long that imprint lasts. You will still get infected but your immune system recognizes it and prevents severe infection/death.
Boosters (and infections) create neutralizing antibodies aligned to more-recent variants, which helps protect against an infection altogether.
A lot of confusion here.
Drum: 'about the same size as the BA.1 surge last winter'. BA.1 was the previous winter -- it was the first Omicron variant.
Anandakos: 'Is mortality down because the virus has mutated to be less HOST-ile? Or is it because some set of genomic factors produce an environment in which it thrives, and the folks who have that set of factors have all died off?' Some of the first (the Omicron variants have been less virulent than Delta but they may be about as virulent as the original), little or none of the second. It's mostly acquired immunity.
Roboto: 'The first part isn't correct. Previous vaccinations don't give any protection, only the boosters and having had Covid do.' Sorry, but this correction is wrong. All of the mRNA vaccines, as well as infection with any strain of SARS-CoV-2, continue to provide substantial protection against severe disease and death.
"Sorry, but this correction is wrong. All of the mRNA vaccines, as well as infection with any strain of SARS-CoV-2, continue to provide substantial protection against severe disease and death."
I assumed most people know that the first vaccination gave extra protection (but waning) to those over 50 for four months (and almost none for healthy people under 30 according to Oxford and Johns Hopkins) and little protection after three months from taking a booster.
Which is why our second vaccination about 6 weeks after our first - it was scheduled for Mid-March 2021 when we showed up for the first vaccination. That was the first booster - building on the immunity given by the first shot before it could start to fade.
Because of our age, we got a second round 5 months later again at 8 months, and again 5 months after that.
I eventually got an asymptomatic case of COVID - likely the new one - no symptoms but showed positive on the test. Kept masked and isolated.
Got the new variant vaccine and booster in March and April this year. No adverse reaction. Also got my flu shot last year and my RSV early this year - also no adverse reactions.
All of this based on discussions with my PCP.
Also, I was well trained by my mother - public health and then Navy nurse. You better damn well we got ALL our vaccinations - and with the BIG bore old needles.
Some question as to repeatedly infections hurt the immune system so we become sicker as a whole
I do know that a Cleveland Clinic study showed in 2022 that with each mRNA shot, a person's risk of getting Covid increases with every extra shot.
You've accidentally conflated two different issues.
First, repeated infections cause T-cell exhaustion. You don't become sicker; your immune system has a harder time responding to infections from all sources.
Second, (COVID) infections cause damage to different parts of your body, by way of your immune system's response. Inflammation is the natural part of your immune system's response to infections. If it goes into overdrive and is unmitigated, inflammation causes damage locally.