My earlier post reminds me that I've uncharacteristically made a few economic predictions lately:
- 30-year fixed mortgages will break 5%.
- Home prices will stop rising and might even drop 10% by the end of the year.
- Gasoline prices will drop 40-50 cents within the next couple of weeks.
- Inflation will start to recede by late spring and will be three or four points lower by the end of the year.
Have I missed any?
Inflation receding by late spring? BOY do I hope you get that one right.
Paul Krugman agrees with that. Crude and wholesale oil prices are already dropping, the trucking shortage has eased as has the slowdown at our ports. In recent days I have noticed that the media has toned down it’s inflation obsession and is turning to fear mongering about the risk of recession. As the WaPo’s Margaret Sullivan recently wrote when so many Americans are badly misinformed about the health of our economy — polls show a large percentage think we are in a recession and that unemployment is high — the media needs to examine their role in that misperception.
Nope, that is not what polls say. You need a finger snap for this post.
I hope the last one is true. It'd be too late to help Democrats in November, but it would be pretty nice unless it comes with a recession.
Cat food inflation will continue to trail overall US inflation
And the catfood supply problem?
Abbott's secondary "inspections" of trucks in Texas is disrupting the catfood business.
Damn Biden!
Oh wow, I hope it's not also affecting dog food too? I'm a dog household.
You can check #1 off the list as of this morning…
I think gas prices and the housing market will probably cool off first -- Kevin's probably right on that. I'm not so sure about other commodities yet. We have yet to really see what the impacts of the severe Covid lockdown's in China's industrial south are going to be, and the ongoing war in Ukraine has the potential to wreak havoc with global food prices. Bad drought in the Great Plains and Mountain states is also going to put further pressure on livestock and commodity prices. "Core" inflation may ease some, but that's not what people deal with on a day-to-day basis. Food and fuel are.
Food is not just one thing, it's a dozens of individual items. Due to seasonality and various one-off factors there's always something at the grocery store which is seeing a price spike -- which people notice, while they tend not to notice lower prices. So over the years I've noticed people are always screaming about high food price inflation, because eggs or milk or beef or oranges or whatever is going up no matter what the overall trend is.
Gas is different and it's probably what most people think of first when they think of inflation.
What severe lockdowns??? There aren't any.
Bad drought????? Nope.
Don't forget the bird flu hitting flocks in the US sending egg and chicken prices up...
12 to 15 weeks from birth to egg laying maturity for most chickens
The chicken "shortage" will be short lived.
Which price goes up first? The chicken or the eggs?
A oil glut is forming. Oh, those speculators know it. The period between price crash and holding on to high prices because of money loss is lol bad is when the fart smell spreads.
Gonna be some Putin loving hedgies going under.
Well, you finally said something I could try to verify. By asking Google "is an oil glut forming?", here is what I found:
The oil market for 2022 looks a lot tighter than the producer group would have you believe. Oil glut is over-estimated.Nov 13, 2021
OPEC's Fears of an Oil Glut Are Built on Faulty Forecasts - Bloomberg
https://www.bloomberg.com › opinion › articles › opec-s-.
We'll see what happens.
Russia is pumping more oil than ever to china and the western powers are flooding the market with oil.
Nice predictions. I just wish Kevin's prediction success rate was higher.
Yep, inflation will ease now that everyone has jacked up their prices arbitrarily. In other words, there is only so much price gouging that can be done before people stop buying your product. I won't hold my breath for prices to go down. Meanwhile, wage increases have once again failed to keep up.
Incorrect.
‘Impulsive psychopaths like crypto’: research shows how ‘dark’ personality traits affect Bitcoin enthusiasm,
https://theconversation.com/impulsive-psychopaths-like-crypto-research-shows-how-dark-personality-traits-affect-bitcoin-enthusiasm-180782
Well, gasoline is down to $3.739 this afternoon, and has been dropping steadily.
That the fifth dentist who’s patients chew gum will join the other four.
"Well, gasoline is down to $3.739 this afternoon, and has been dropping steadily."
MSM: "Boring. How about headlining the increase in high-end champagne prices, and the devastating effect this has on the average American consumer? We can feature a few quotes from Nicky Minaj and Peter Thiel."
U.S. consumer confidence rose this month as Americans shrugged off concerns about rising prices and COVID’-19′s highly contagious omicron variant.
"The Conference Board, a business research group, said Wednesday that its consumer confidence index — which takes into account consumers’ assessment of current conditions and the their outlook for the future — rose to 115.8 in December, the highest reading since July. In November, it registered 111.9.
Consumers’ view of current conditions dipped slightly, but their outlook for the next six months brightened."
U.S. consumer confidence rose this month as Americans shrugged off concerns about rising prices and COVID’-19′s highly contagious omicron variant.
https://apnews.com/article/coronavirus-pandemic-business-health-prices-consumer-confidence-c57e24869d377d111a8644798df218eb
The sound you hear is a thousand editors wailing "But we did everything we could to heighten the gloom and bury any good news!"
"Have I missed any?"
Yes one - it's not an economic indicator but...............
I suspect that 'Ol Queen Liz is on her last legs. She has been ill and since Phillip died she hasn't been herself.
Harry and Megan paid her a visit on their way to the Invictus games but Queen Elizabeth herself has pulled out of a LOT of engagements lately.
The question is will Charles allow himself to be king KNOWING that he is much older than Liz was when she ascended to the throne and that his reign will be short lived? The Brits thrive on continuity.
I suspect he will decline for health reasons to allow Prince William to become King. If my succession order is wrong please let me know.
I just wish the old girl a peaceful passing. What a glorious life she has lead
I cannot imagine Charles not becoming King. The one thing he's there for?
Even if he knows he'll die the next day he'll do it and appoint his hamster regent just to watch everyone worry about it while he lays there.
"I cannot imagine Charles not becoming King. The one thing he's there for?"
As much as I admire Liz her son Charles is a weird one if you ask me. But one thing he does share with his mother is his awareness that "the monarchy" is an anachronism from a time gone by. In order to save it he may need to abdicate to William and especially Kate who could rejuvenate public opinion towards "the Royals".
I do believe that England absent a strong monarchy will pull out of the EU (and possibly NATO). Having served in WWII Elizabeth had a strong desire to maintain alliances whereas "Bore"-is has a more independent streak in him.
The Brits already pulled out of the EU (See: Brexit). Is there any sentiment there at all for leaving NATO? Especially now when the old alliance has been given a high dose stimulant shot by Putin's shenanigans-- so that even Sweden and Finland are talking about joining?
Most comments I have seen Indicate that if you remove Boris then the brits might reconsider that EU decision. I believe the Queen "tolerated" the move.
As for Nato, Borja visiting Ukraine was a hopeful sign but I get a bad feeling about England's economy which could result in decreased support for military spending (including support for NATO).
While I HOPE Kevin is correct on inflation, I suspect he is materially too optimistic. We will see....
Core inflation was flat yry