The FBI released full-year crime figures for 2023 today, and officially they say murder was down 11.6%. However, if you look at the murder rate, it's down 12.3%. The Crime Data Explorer has also gotten a makeover and now shows crime figures monthly:
(The 2021 figures are grayed out because they're unreliable.) All the numbers in the chart are from the FBI's expanded homicide data, which differs considerably from the normal homicide data. And both of them differ from the official yearly figures. wtf?
I'm confused. But I'm pretty sure the expanded data is better since the normal data shows huge spikes each December, which is certainly not correct. The expanded data shows murder spiking in July.
In any case, we can safely say that murder was down 11-12% in 2023 and has continued to drop in 2024. By the end of 2023 it was down to pre-COVID levels and is below that by now.
Overall violent crime was down 3% and property crime was down 2.4%.
Sadly, none of this will matter in the political discourse, as Republicans continue to lie about the "explosion in crime under Biden/Harris", and voters will believe them.
Years ago I graded a student essay in which he talked about the "sky-rocketing crime rate"; I had to point out to him that the crime rate had been dropping steadily for the past 30 years, which is to say since 10 years before he was born.
The thing about skyrockets: they go down too.
You’re killing me with all this data.
> groan <
So the Trump Murder wave is over?
That's not what my local news is telling me.