Commercial construction dropped in November at an annualized rate of -2.9%. This is the first time it's declined in the past year and a half—and this is despite the continuing tailwinds of the Infrastructure Act and the CHIPS Act. Perhaps the emptying of downtown office buildings is finally taking its toll?
The long and variable lags are coming due.
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I know a ton of jobs are at stake, but do we really need more new nonresidential construction when residential and infrastructure are way behind?
See: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dB67
Residential and nonresidential spending is converging and total employment in construction continues to grow.
Here's another way to look at the data: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dB6c