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Not very many people die of COVID-19 these days

Chris Hayes thinks that COVID-19 has overwhelmed us:

At the risk of being irritatingly contrarian, I've long thought this was wrong. We focus a lot on huge numbers—50 million cases! 800,00 people dead!—but the truth is that these are relatively small numbers.

The total US death rate from COVID-19 is a little over 0.2%. But that's cumulative. During the first year of the pandemic, the annualized death rate was about 0.15%. Over the next nine months, with vaccines available, the death rate declined to 0.1%. If you're under 65 it goes down further to 0.035%. That's about one in 3,000. And if you're vaccinated it goes down to nearly zero.

Here's my point: I suspect that part of the public anxiety over COVID is due to the gigantic mismatch between rhetoric and reality. We are told loudly and often about how bad the COVID pandemic is. We have mask mandates, vaccination mandates, travel restrictions, business shutdowns, deep cleanings, remote schools, and constant reminders of how many people have died. And yet, the reality today is that most of us have only the tiniest sliver of a chance of dying from COVID-19.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that the deaths of the elderly don't matter. I'm not saying that COVID-19 is no big deal. I'm not ignoring long COVID. I'm just pointing out that for the vast majority of people, the risk of dying from COVID-19 is minuscule but they're being kept in a constant state of terror regardless.

I'm not sure what to conclude from this. I'm really not. I just wanted to point it out so that other people could chew it over.

203 thoughts on “Not very many people die of COVID-19 these days

  1. kingmidget

    Because the only that matters when it comes to disease is whether you die from it? What about the long-haulers? How many thousands struggled with horrible side effects for months? What about all of the hospitalizations and corresponding costs? The issue with COVID is not just whether you live or die. There are a lot of other issues at play.

    This is probably one of the most disappointing posts I’ve ever seen from Kevin.

    1. akapneogy

      And if you go only by the number of casualties, the Vietnam war transformed the country for decades to come with many fewer casualties than this pandemic. Disappointing post indeed.

    2. Crissa

      Did you read the post?

      We can wash our hands, mask and vaccine, and... aside from not dining out, we have no reason to experience existential fear.

      The vast majority of us are safe. And so we should do pur part and be safe, not lecture people for not being terrified.

      1. DonRolph

        But it is reasonable, given the spread of this disease and the number of deaths (more than the Spanish flu and more than any other natural catastrophe in US history) to lecture people for not being safe.

      2. kingmidget

        Yes, but there are significant portions of this country that are unwilling to do those things. Australia, which started vaxxing people way later than us, has already achieved 80% vaccinated.

        I just spent five days in Florida, where almost nobody wears a mask or distances.

        I'm not sure what your point is, to be honest, because what you describe isn't happening in much of America.

        1. Atticus

          I live in Florida. You are correct. Are vaccinated people still wearing masks in other parts of the country? Some people wear them here but it's not very common. My son, who is not yet fully vaccinated, wears one to school. But since my older daughter has been fully vaccinated we don't make her wear one at school anymore.

          1. kingmidget

            I’m fully vaccinated and generally wear a mask when I’m indoors. I’m in California. And I still see most people doing so here.

            1. Mitch Guthman

              The reason why we still wear masks in California even though most of us are vaccinated is because it’s impossible to distinguish between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated with the use of a vaccine passport. As more cities require vaccine passports for indoor activities, we will be able to get rid of masks and begin returning to normal.

                1. Mitch Guthman

                  Fair enough. But a part of the reason why the mask requirement returned was the change so that vaccinated people could forgo masks. The problem was that the CDC and LA County used the honor system instead of vaccine passports and it turned out that Republicans are without honor. So the mask requirement was reimposed for everyone.

              1. Atticus

                It's a different world here in Florida. When you say things like "get back to normal", most people here would be very perplexed. Everything here has been normal for a long time.

                1. iamr4man

                  Except that the Florida covid death rate has gone up from being very close to California’s to being in the top 10 in the country.
                  My county has one of the highest vaccination rates in the country and the people here are all masked while shopping and many are masked, or have them available while walking outdoors. We also have a very low death rate.

                2. Mitch Guthman

                  Life in Florida is “normal” because the virus is invisible and so are its victims. So, yes, in a very real sense, life in Florida has always been “normal” in that the state followed the same basic plan as did the UK and most of the red states of simply allowing the pandemic to basically run its course. For example, France has a population of about 60 million people and experienced about 120,000 deaths even though until recently it minimal precautions; Florida has a population of about 20 million but had over 68,000 deaths.

                  The people of Florida choice to mostly ignore the virus and sought actively to promote it and to prevent local governments from taking normal public health measures. So, yes, life has always been normal because in Florida death from Covid-19 was considered a noble sacrifice for the Trump cause. That’s not the case elsewhere but the problem is that if red states refuse to take precautions, that makes the precautions that normal people must take that much more onerous, unpleasant, and ineffective.

                  People in Florida should be free to live how they want. But the rest of us who want to be free of the pandemic without becoming ill or dying or having our health care system swamped have rights, too. We need to strictly limit the travel of unvaccinated people, particularly from red states that have chosen to simply allow the virus to run its course.

            2. Lady Mary

              I live in LA county and everyone is wearing masks everywhere. I work in OC and at stores there seem to be a lot of folks not wearing them. In the office we have to wear them when we are not in our own offices. We have been told this will continue until at least March.

          2. realrobmac

            I was shocked when I went to Colorado in September to see almost no one wearing a mask. I'm from Florida and at that time I saw a lot of mask wearing here still. At this point though, mask wearing has gotten a lot more rare.

            1. goingBlue

              If one lives in the city of Denver, which I do, it is mandatory to wear a mask in all public enclosed spaces. I generally see 100% compliance, with the occasional chin diaper on a few people, mostly men. I am fully vaxed and boostered, but still wear mine regardless.

      3. realrobmac

        No reason not to dine out either. If you are vaccinated, go about living and enjoying your life like normal. Wear a mask when asked to but don't sweat it if you don't and if other people are not masked. Some people don't want to let go of perpetual fear. But if you are vaccinated and not immune compromised, it's over for you.

        1. KenSchulz

          Right. I wear a mask and use seat belts because those are minor inconveniences that reduce a quantifiable risk, not because I’m ‘terrified’.

          1. kingmidget

            There is a lot of emotional mischaracterization going on. The biggest reason I wear a mask? Because the staff has to wear masks. And it’s the least I can do - to wear a mask as well.

    3. bethby30

      Not only that but there are serious spikes in state like Michigan. This is the headline about a hospital in Michigan just posted an hour ago at CNN:

      “Covid-19 patients at this hospital are dying 'at a rate we've never seen die before' -- and it's taking a toll on health care workers”
      https://www.cnn.com/2021/12/09/us/hospital-covid-19-deaths-michigan/index.html

      Surely Kevin is aware that there are state in the US with large numbers of unvaccinated people who are seeing a serious surge. Europe is also seeing serious surges as winter sets in so it’s likely that will happen more and more here.

      Let’s hope the initial reports of Omicron being more infectious but causing less serious infections are proved true. I recently read that is what happened with the H1N1 flu virus — it didn’t go away, just became less virulent. If that is the case many of those unvaccinated fools will get infected as well as the unvaccinated in poor countries and finally get rid of this pandemic.

        1. KenSchulz

          Even where vaccination rates are high, there remain large enough pools of potential hosts for the SARS-Cov-2 virus. Apparently we still aren’t close to herd immunity. I would expect the correlations of hospitalizations and deaths with vaccination rates to be higher, because of the ~order-of-magnitude greater risk for the unvaccinated

  2. Vog46

    For those that too easily dismiss the older folks who are approaching end of life ]

    I seem to recall someone railing against death panels and someone else making the decision to let some people die. YOU are hypocrites at best.

    Trump was NOT responsible FOR the pandemic. But his outrageous suggestions of UV light and bleach injections did what they were intended to do - sew doubt into the minds of republicans because Twumpy rumpy had his panties in a was because Birx and Faucci wouldn't do what he wanted them to do and to say what HE wanted them to say! So he had his minions sew doubt on ALL The science.

    One thing that republicans have ignored is that viruses, left un-checked will replicate and mutate. Some good, some not so good. But the anti vaxxers WANTED to prove the scientists wrong - especially Faucci !
    In the meantime OTHER countries did what TRUMP wanted for himself. He wanted HIS countrymen to do whatever he asked of them w/o question. Israel said roll up your sleeves and they did without question. They tested without question. The fact remains that in spite of all of that the virus mutated into DELTA and wreaked havoc on the medical community. They are currently pushing round 4 of the vaccines because they know that this will continue to mutate and they were right (as was Faucci). Here comes Omicron. Top mutation in S Africa now and a trusted ally in England is now faced with the real possibility that Omicron will be the dominant strain there within 6 to 8 weeks.
    Thank goodness the symptoms are NOT severe - BUT THAT IS NOT THE POINT - the point is that it mutated so much and so quickly it is evading immunity protections - now even the pharma companies are saying it !!! The CEO said we have to slow it down or we may get a variant that they really don't want to get.
    Republicans are hypocrites and by saying you are not bothered by old people dying is choosing who should die which is exactly what McCain/Palin screamed about.
    Un vaxxed people should be locked down immediately. If they have no religious or healthcare reasons for NOT getting vaccinated then they should PAY for their care, so that people (Like Kevin Drum) can go about THEIR business vaccinated and protected so far as possible to ALLOW them to live as long as they can

    Omicron is NOT the problem. Its the extent and speed of the mutation that is the problem

  3. pjcamp1905

    The rest of the truth is that this thing will never go away because too many dimwits think vaccines are a conspiracy. And that straddles the political divide.

      1. bethby30

        Often the new variants can be milder but at least as infectious as is the case with the 1918 H1N1 flu virus. That is the best case scenario because the milder strain will replace the deadlier one if it is also more infectious. Unvaccinated people will get mild cases and immunity. Not that you want to encourage mutations. The later wave of the 1918 flu had mutated to be even deadlier and more infectious before it finally mutated into a milder form. It is still around today.
        What I only recently learned is that subsequent flu pandemics happened when the H1N1 combined traits with either a swine or avian flu.

        https://www.history.com/news/1918-flu-pandemic-never-ended

    1. Spadesofgrey

      Most adults are already vaccinated. Poor post. It's never going away, but you won't care because much like OC43, it's slowly losing effectiveness. Try harder.

  4. illilillili

    The only people being kept in a constant state of terror are those with compromised immune systems who can't get vaccinated. The rest of us are just in a constant state of annoyed.

  5. ProgressOne

    Yes, the risks are low. But people can be informed of this and still really not want to get it (or spread it). This doesn't mean we live in fear of covid, just that we'll adjust our lifestyles some to be less likely to get it.

    My sister-in-law got it a month ago and lost her sense of taste. A month later it is back to about 50%. But you never know what issues might linger on with covid.

    Since I don't want to get it, I still work remote. I miss interacting with coworkers face to face. But why spend all day unmasked around many others? Besides, I am even more productive working from home.

    In general, people have cut down on interactions. We used to have neighborhood parties, and those are now rare. It kind of stinks. Socializing in general has been reduced.

    BTW, my wife tested positive for covid this morning and has some mild symptoms. So now we do quarantine till the holidays. One more lifestyle adjustment.

    1. iamr4man

      I am very sorry to hear your wife tested positive. I hope she has few or no symptoms. I would advise discussing monoclonal antibody treatment and insisting on her getting it at the first sign of symptoms. That’s what I would do.

    2. Vog46

      I here yah on that Progress

      The Mrs and I were sick over Christmas last year. Symptoms were mild.
      Got vaccinated in Feb/Mar time frame. Got our Moderna booster a couple of weeks ago.
      We are still very aware of our surroundings. We needed some stuff at the grocery story yesterday. We usually shop on Thursday because it Senior Citizens day with an across the board 5% discount on top of sales prices. Saw the store was PACKED - decided to go back last evening. We wear masks inside all stores. Wearing masks and observing how crowded a store is before entering are just 2 simple and easy lifestyle changes that cause no heartburn for either of us.
      Hopefully your wife has no complications.

  6. skeptonomist

    Most people aren't in a constant state of terror and they don't have to be now that we have vaccines. Danger was greater before that. People do have to do certain things, especially get vaccinated, to bring the pandemic to an end. Has almost half the adult population been in a state of terror about the dangers of vaccination? You could argue that there has not been enough fear of covid to cause people to do the logical things they need to do to cut the risk for everyone.

  7. KenSchulz

    They are only ‘small numbers if you ignore the numbers from the Asia/Pacific region, especially Taiwan, Aotearoa New Zealand, South Korea, Australia etc. We need to understand how these countries managed to keep cases and deaths to far lower levels, without wrecking their economies or immiserating their peoples. And then we need to stand up a robust, resilient public-health pandemic-defense operation.

    1. KenSchulz

      And don’t come back with “they’re islands”. Korea and Vietnam aren’t, and you can’t walk or drive from Europe or Asia to the Americas, either.

      1. lawnorder

        You also need to ask why Canada, which is separated from the US only by an arbitrary line on the map, has one-third the covid death rate of the US.

  8. pack43cress

    COVID-19 is a huge problem. Many posters have correctly pointed out that it's unhelpful when generalized statistics are used by individuals to justify not treating the pandemic seriously. I'm so tired of this fundamental misunderstanding that is so common: It is NOT about your individual risk. It's a highly infectious disease. It is going to keep killing people who value their own lives as long as it keeps spreading.
    Our problem is that too many of our fellow humans are looking at it as a personal risk-reward calculation. Instead, the only way to beat this thing is to look at it systemically, and that means one thing: what does each of us need to do to stop transmission. Full stop. Is everybody doing everything they can to stop transmission instead of only thinking about whether getting it has a high chance of hurting them individually? I don't think I need to answer that. Very discouraging.
    [And I didn't even include the wrinkle that more cases --> more chances for mutations, which are random, and with pre-symptomatic transmission, there's no guarantee that mutations won't get more lethal.]

    1. iamr4man

      >> more cases --> more chances for mutations<<

      You know, I keep seeing people say this. But if that is the case why have all the mutations (that I’ve heard about, at least) come from places other that the US? The USA has, by far, the most cases.

      Real question.

      1. Krowe

        Discovered in other places come from other places. It look like the S. African variant may have been in Europe first, for example.
        And the "Spanish Flu" of a century ago likely came from .... Kansas

      2. KenSchulz

        There is a dependence on the proportion of positive PCR samples are sequenced. Some countries are sequencing more than the US, last I read.

      3. rational thought

        First , we do not have the most cases. We have the most reported confirmed cases . But other nations do not have the same testing capacity.
        Seems certain that India had way more cases than we did . They had that huge delta wave which then subsided. And then cases went pretty low. Only possible way that could have happened, with a low number of vaccinations, is that they got enough natural immunity from a large percentage, likely over 50% , of their population being infected.

        I also expect China has had more cases than the USA. Their reporting is completely fake. And there are a number of indications that show a large excess mortality, just not reported directly by the govt. But we really do not know what is happening there.

        But we are #3 which is where we should be given we are #3 in population. Covid is contagious enough and hard enough to control that final total infections per capita will not be hugely different amount most countries. So infection numbers will mostly be based on population.

        As vog said, where mutations arise is also random. More cases in a larger population, more chance of mutation. And the USA certainly had had mutations, including serious ones like the California strain which contributed to the bad la winter wave and was similar to alpha. Just ended up getting overshadowed by delta.

        But it is also not just number of infections affecting chance of mutation. Also how long each infection lasts . An infection in a healthier person who clears it quickly poses less mutation risk than one that lingers in an unhealthy person for months.

        And some think omincron first evolved in someone with hiv . That poses a bigger mutation risk as their compromised immune system cannot clear the virus and it can hang around mutating. And south Africa has a lot of hiv.

        Vaccination can lower mutations also because, even if there is a breakthrough case , it lasts a shorter period giving the virus less time to mutate. But a vaccinated breakthrough case of course also is where a bigger risk of a specifically vaccine avoiding mutation.

        But one thing I rarely hear mentioned. Even if a mutation arises in an infected person that is more transmissible or more virulent, it is irrelevant if it never spreads to someone else before the immune system kills it off. So if anyone who has covid would just quarantine, any mutation would not matter.

    2. Atticus

      To what degree do we need to do everything we can to stop transmission? Should we should down schools again and everyone go into lockdown?

    3. mhorst

      Maybe you just don't "beat this thing"! Have we beaten the common cold? Have we beaten the flu? We live with viruses and we're going to live with this one for a long time.

  9. dmcantor

    I think the right context for thinking about this is a comparison to other reasons people die. There are about 50,000 deaths in auto crashes each year. That's ~10-fold less than Covid. Each year, about 600,000 people in the US die of cancer. That's roughly double the Covid toll. So Covid is a serious risk, but not out of line with other risks we face. I think the fact that its spread by contagion adds to the perception that its a big worry.

    1. Vog46

      dm
      But also think about what safety measures we have in automobiles now compared to when they first exploded in use.
      Seat belts, air bags, speed limits, no impairment while driving, no distractions by driving and so on

      For COVID we just invented the automobile and have our first safety feature (the vaccine). THATs the analogy

    2. KenSchulz

      The only reason that Covid risk is “not out of line with other risks we face” is that a large fraction of the population is mitigating that risk, by masking, getting vaccinated, avoiding crowds, limiting contacts including working from home when possible. Contagion isn’t just a factor in perceived risk, it is a major factor in actual risk.

  10. Silver

    Like some of you already have, I’d like to focus on post-covid. This is the truly scary part for me, not least because I already suffer from what may be a likely end result for many of the true long haulers, ME/CFS. I am obviously aware of the controversy around this diagnosis, but as a sufferer since more than 20 years I can tell you it is no picnic. I personally have “moderate” ME, which doesn’t sound too bad, but it means that I have to spend most of my time in bed, and my more or less waking hours are spent resting on the couch. I can take a short, slow walk around the block once or twice a week, but apart from that I don’t really get out other than absolutely necessary doctor’s appointments and the like. I have an extremely restricted social life, mostly consisting of telephone calls with my daughter. Needless to say I can’t work, haven’t been working for two decades, and oh do I miss my work!!

    ME is a diagnosis I wouldn’t wish on anyone, truly. There are many more out there than most are aware of, since it is such a debilitating disease that most sufferers are simply invisible, confined to home. And experts in the field are very worried now that the number of sufferers will multiply as a result of covid. Much more is known about ME now than just a few years ago, and it is well known that most get it after a more or less severe viral infection. Many different virus outbreaks have resulted in outbreaks of ME before, such as SARS for example.

    So apart from everything else that is horrible about covid-19, this could be a terrible burden for society and individuals in years to come.

  11. bokun59elboku

    40 percent of the population doesn't even care who dies or who lives. So, this is never going away. So be it. Herman Cain it is for them I guess.

  12. Atticus

    Are people really still in a constant state of fear over covid? It's been well over a year since covid has had any impact whatsoever on my daily life or the lives of anyone I know. (The exception being restaurants still being understaffed.) Our schools were closed those last few months (March to May) of the school year in 2020 but then in the Fall of 2020 they were back open in person full time. Since then life has been pretty normal.

    1. realrobmac

      Covid really had no impact on your life from Dec 2020 through spring of 2021, during the absolute worst part of the pandemic, when very few people were vaccinated? Seriously?

      1. Atticus

        I was wearing a mask until I got vaccinated. But other than that, not much else was different. Kids were in school, their sports were in full swing, everything was open. We were going about our lives as normal. What was different for you?

  13. Justin

    Americans don’t care. They love mass murder, the pandemic, and endless war.

    “Progressives get rolled on Pentagon policy.” In an all-too-familiar story for progressives, nearly all of their priorities, including provisions to repeal the 2002 Iraq AUMF and end all remaining US support for the war in Yemen, were excluded from the final NDAA.

    With amendments to repeal the 2002 AUMF stripped from the bill, Democratic leadership is exploring options to make good on Majority Leader Chuck Schumer’s promise to hold a vote on repealing the authorization before the end of the year. *Read more in the NDAA section below. [Politico/ Andrew Desiderio and Connor O’Brien] [Politico/ Andrew Desiderio and Connor O’Brien]

  14. Justin

    Back on the topic of Covid…

    Health professionals have been forced to call bullshit on Sen. Ron Johnson’s latest bogus COVID-19 remedy. The Wisconsin Republican told attendees of a Wednesday town-hall meeting that eliminating COVID was as easy as gargling mouthwash, which, he said, “has been proven to kill the coronavirus.” “If you get it, you may reduce viral replication. Why not try all these things?” he said, according to The Washington Post. But health experts say he was missing the point of how the virus spreads—which is usually through the nose, not the mouth.

    “Even if gargling kills some of the virus, it won’t be able to clean the nasal area, nor the viruses that’s already penetrated deeper into the body,” Kim Woo-Joo, an infectious-disease expert at Korea University, was quoted telling the Post. Johnson’s advice also seems to ignore the most obvious way of fighting COVID: getting vaccinated.

    Silly experts. Obviously you put the mouthwash in a Neti Pot and and breathe in! Vodka works too! Or better yet, bleach and H2O2. That’ll do the trick.

  15. tdbach

    This another disappointing post by Kevin.

    Lately, it's as if his mission is to declare, "I'm a liberal, but I'm not one of those liberal nuts you read about." Maybe he's imagining he's helping to strengthen the liberal/progressive brand by "correcting" its more extreme wings. Why bother? Fox and other RW media have made sport of characterizing all liberals as our most out-there examples. Kevin's not going to change the RW media game plan. And liberals of all stripes already know we have loveable nuts within our ranks. So what's the point?

    What's worse in this instance, is that Kevin's attempt to bring sanity to Hayes's (and by extension, liberals at large) views on the pandemic completely misses the mark. Very few people I know feel an existential threat to themselves, now that we're vaccinated. And that wasn't what Hayes was implying. Covid is a true, deadly and daunting virus that is killing people at what would ordinarily be a shocking number - over 1,000 a day. Back at the beginning, that was a horrifying number. Now? Eh! Moving on... Which is exactly the wrong way to think about it. It continues to spread through our communities, continues to kill and make very sick, if not our friends and neighbors, our friend's friends. And it will continue to do that until we take it seriously enough to get vaxxed, get boosters, mask indoors, keep our distance. It's a collective community problem with only a collective, community solution. If ever there was a tangible liberal issue, this is it. And ALL liberals - and conservatives, actually - need to be on board.

      1. tdbach

        Seriously? Do you buckle up - hell, do you keep your eye on the road - because of "terror" that their might be an accident? You're more likely to die of Covid. Do you take vitamins or your blood-pressure pills because you're terrified of getting sick?

  16. Spadesofgrey

    300000 of the dead were close to death anyways. Probably be up around 400000 by the time it is over. For people under 60(and sheet, under 75), this pandemic pales to 1918-20. Don't even get me started on the black death or Justisn plagiues. It simply doesn't bother civilization.

    I wonder if Hayes and Carlson don't meet the "elite" in smoked filled room's. Being told how to sell the dialect.

    If anything, I see 24 hour media and political "talk shows" being banned soon. Well overdue.

  17. azumbrunn

    People are not just afraid of dying from COVID. They are also afraid of having to spend a week on a ventilator (maybe more than of dying per se!). They are afraid of giving it to friends and family. They are even afraid of having to quarantine (it is monstrously inconvenient if you have to do it by yourself and even more so if you have family!).

    All of these probabilities far exceed the probability of death.

    If you came up with the percentage of people who were directly affected by the pandemic you would get a better measure of how justified people's fears are.

  18. sonofthereturnofaptidude

    FWIW, when this pandemic started, I watched the ambulances roll out at the assisted living home across the street all day and night for weeks. Dozens of my neighbors were in the ICU; the single largest number of deaths in my town were from across the street.

    But most people don't live where I do.

    One experience many people seem to have in common: Children going to school masked, vaccinated by mandate or distance learning. That seems to be a touchpoint that causes a lot of tempers to flare. Parents are showing up at schoolboard meetings and pi$$ ed off about either or both.

  19. Vog46

    we think in terms of seasonal when discuss covid.
    NYT Covid map is getting interesting. low case counts in the south until you hit west Texas, NM, and AZ WHICH are showing a surge. New England States showing a surge but the Pacific NW is in good shape.
    This is all Delta of course.
    It is, and shall remain a pandemic of the unvaccinated.
    But Omicron is not "the one".

  20. mmcgowan1

    I understand the focus on death, but it isn't the only measure if the disease. Some 1 in people diagnosed with covid develop severe disease and most of those people are hospitalized. Yes, nearly all of those people survive, but it still comes at a high cost to the patients, the staff who take care of them, and the patients' families. If you have never faced paying hospital bills, well good for you. And as we know, the effects of the disease often linger for months.

    No, covid is not smallpox or the black death. Only 1 in 500 Americans have died from it. But it is a largely preventable tragedy.

    1. Vog46

      Indeed
      The stress of it all is really hurting our healthcare system
      And the death and hospitalizations are "preventable"

      Heck, I don't even trust our own statistics because of Governors such as DeathSantis.

      The numbers have been played with. The experts have been sullied. The rubes have been led astray. Heck we didn't even test to see how many of us could have had COVID early on because no testing = no pandemic. It was all going to be gone by Easter !!!!!!

  21. cyrki

    I think a greater with the covid pandemic is the undiscussed toll it is taking our our healthcare system, especially the front-line providers. To have to work under such stress for two years is staggering. The numbers don't convey the damage done.

      1. Vog46

        Rattus -
        And THAT has always been the problem
        Too many restaurants put bartenders or hostesses at the front line talking to rude obnoxious people about the requirement for a mask. When they get belligerent, management lets them in to quiet them down
        Of course the whole idea was to partially re-open to keep businesses afloat.
        But at what cost? I know of a restaurant down the street from me that has gone through - 3 count 'em 3 completely different dining room staffs in the last 3 months. Combination of customer attitude, low pay, and no help from Law Enforcement on masks. Same goes for retail stores.
        Vaccines are the only effective means of fighting this pandemic and a vaccine "passport" is an easy way to get out from under the mandates.
        But NOTHING is good enough if all you want to do is rant against everything and everybody.
        OTOH I still mask up in public buildings even though I don't have to. The more the general population accepts people wearing masks the easier it will be for it to become a part of our lives

        1. Rattus Norvegicus

          The funny thing is that the place I am referring to is a higher end place so bartenders and waitstaff in general make good money. The women do have to put up with a lot of shit from male customers through. Most of them are tough enough to deal with it, but occasionally they confess to me about how bad it can be since the pandemic began. It would seem that a lot of people have decided that it is OK to let their inner asshole out. At least the joint I go to pays well enough and staff can expect to get enough in tips that it doesn't have any problem getting enough workers to be fully staffed.

          I will say that all of the bartenders I know at this place are fully vaccinated and have asked me about how to get boosters, which I gladly told them how to do (I got mine on the first day I could). Hint, getting a booster is easy -- just go to any pharmacy!

          1. Vog46

            Rattus
            The really bad thing is many of the people that frequent that place are probably required to mask, or have proof of vaccination at their day time job. so why SHOULD a bartender or waitress have to put up with ANY BS from these folks? THAT's the real problem.
            I GET the fact they are in the service industry (I was a bartender at one time making extra cash. Even owned my own place for 2 years after I left the service).
            But being in the service industry does NOT make you a slave, sorry. No one should have to put up with any customers crap.
            BUT your friend is also a Nurse which makes this doubly worse. Putting up with death and suffering during the day and assholes at night? Wow.
            The Mrs and I did the Health department routine rather than the pharmacy, and we purposely waited until there were several vaccines out there, and we chose Moderna. We stayed with the Moderna booster as well.
            OTOH, when I asked my doctor about a flu shot last year she said bluntly: "Given your underlying health conditions I would recommend going to CVS, their flu shot has the increased potency I think you need this year."
            Go figure

  22. Rattus Norvegicus

    All I have to say is that this is some silly ass lazy analysis. From the date of the first death to one year after the first death there were about 570,000 deaths. It is very likely that by the second anniversary of the first death we will have racked up 430,000 more, mostly unvaccinated, lives. In 2020 COVID-19 was the third leading cause of death behind the ever popular cancer and heart disease.

    If you want to look at it through the lens for from when the first case in the US was reported it looks likely that by the time that milestone is passed the same number of people will have died in 2021/22 as died in 2020/21. It only took 370,000 deaths to make COVID-19 the third leading cause of death in calendar year 2020. We'll have close to 500,000 more deaths from COVID-19 in 2021, and it might just give cancer a run for the number 2 spot depending on how the winter surge sorts out.

  23. Vog46

    We have our first case(s) of Omicron here in NC. Student at UNC-Charlotte. Mild case, fully recovered. Only came in contact with one other person (supposedly).

    But, as minor as Omicron is, our recent activity for COVID in general is disturbing. Hospitalizations are up and the demographics of those hospitalized has now changed to being majority of people UNDER 65.
    DELTA is still the issue here. Unvaxxed are the main problem, bu breakthrough cases are now more commonplace as we get past the 6 month mark form previous vaccination.

    We are trying to treat a disease that affects each of us differently, with vaccines that we now know lose their effectiveness over time. Post infection immunity loses its effectiveness even quicker.
    We SHOULD be reporting numbers based upon the previous illness or vaccination dates. ANYTHING outside the 6 month mark should be considered as having NO PROTECTION, and be locked down.
    Sorry but thats just how it is. AND truth be told, many employers here in SE NC are now requiring vaccines and boosters, regularly given, as a requirement. We are a right to work state so employers, NOT eh government, not the anti vaxxers have had the upper hand in setting their own work place policies

  24. Pingback: Is COVID Being Overhyped?

  25. Goosedat

    Despite the comparatively low death count, America's hospitals barely have the capacity to provide care for those who do contract severe C-19 symptoms. A lot of Americans are in denial about the capacity of health care infrastructure and the skilled labor needed to provide life saving services.

    1. KenSchulz

      We have recently moved to Minnesota, where the state is now training members of the National Guard to serve as ‘temporary Certified Nursing Assistants’ in overflow facilities set up specifically to treat Covid-19 patients, as well as at long-term care facilities.

      1. Vog46

        Ken-
        Michigan has set a new record for hospitalizations this wee. COVID is surging in the NE, and SW with some upper midwest states included too.
        RI and several other states in NE are calling out the N Guard to help.

        Thank goodness Omicron is less severe so far. It will be the dominant strain in the European continent within just a few weeks. Thats astonishing growth. And evading immunity protections too !!!!

        A few random observations.
        We have improved our level of sequencing variants but we are still woefully in the low range of sequencing. Omicron is probably MUCH more prevalent then we realize/

        But in doing some reading it's NOT just our overall poor health that puts us in danger. think about some of our more popular diseases that affect immunity
        Graves disease
        MS
        Diabetes
        Psoriasis
        Irritable bowel syndrome
        HIV
        Sickle Cell

        For some of those diseases the treatments are affecting immunity. For others the blood is impacted by the disease. Just think of the MILLIONS of people that have or are being treated JUST for those off the top of my head !!!!! Add THEM to the general overall poor health of Americans and you can see why anyone wanting any variant to spread should be hung out to dry.

        But also consider that for Omicron the sequencing takes 4 days. If it is that contagious yo could spread it all over hell and creation before you even know you have it.

        And this is NOT the mutation that Faucci warned us on

        So we have overall poor health, far too many diseases that affect our immune systems and we are now coming to the understanding that T cell memory doesn't develop in everybody the same way through post infection.

        Vaccines are the best form of protection. I suspect we will have one capable of providing protection against all serious forms of coronavirus soon. I hope that vaccine is capable of being distributed world wide w/o special handling.
        I suspect we are about 2 years away from that though.

  26. Vog46

    Interesting news out of Israel (NOT Peer reviewed). Keep in mind the subjects of this VERY small study are health care workers

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/two-covid-vaccine-shots-does-not-protect-against-omicron-sheba-688496

    The neutralizing ability of even three shots of the Pfizer corona vaccine is four times less against the Omicron than the Delta variant, according to researchers at Sheba Medical Center.
    The team looked at the ability of serums of 40 vaccinated healthcare workers at Sheba to neutralize the Omicron variant – 20 who received the booster shot within the last month, and 20 who had only received two shots, the last one five or six months ago.
    The study is based on the exclusive data available in Sheba as part of the large serology study conducted among health workers at the medical center. It was conducted in collaboration with the Health Ministry’s Central Virology Lab, which is located on the Sheba campus.

    Those who received the second dose did not have any neutralization ability against the variant, while they continued to have some ability against Delta and even the original Wuhan strain.
    “There was no neutralization ability whatsoever, and that is very worrisome,” said Dr. Gili Regev-Yochay, director of the Infectious Disease Epidemiology Unit at the hospital, in a briefing on Saturday night, adding that these people might also be exposed to serious disease.
    It is also unclear if people who received two doses more recently would also be protected, she said.
    Lab tests conducted in South Africa last week showed that antibodies from two shots of the Pfizer vaccine may be up to 40 times less effective against the Omicron variant.
    In response to these studies, Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis, head of Public Health Services, said in an interview with N12 Saturday night that the ministry is considering asking people to get their third dose as soon as three months after the second.
    "People who have received the booster are better protected than those who received only the second, and of course, more than the unvaccinated,” Alroy-Preis said.
    She noted that the only individual infected with the Omicron who is in serious condition is unvaccinated.
    There are a million Israelis who have had two shots five or more months ago and have not gotten their boosters, she said, and another 325,000 who had two shots more recently and would be eligible for an earlier third dose if the policy changed.
    “Two doses are not effective enough,” Alroy-Preis said.
    On the other hand, the Sheba study found that the booster dose does increase the ability of the vaccine to work against Omicron by about 100-fold, meaning that there is “significant protection,” Regev Yochay said. **********“It is lower than the neutralizing ability against the Delta – about four times lower. But it is very optimistic.”*********
    She added that “it looks like with Omicron there is a chance that people with the booster could get infected, but have much less chance of getting seriously infected.”
    Regev Yochay said that it is still unclear whether the effectiveness of the booster shot will also decrease over time, and that this is something the Sheba researchers are looking into now.

    Recommended by
    The Israeli study, which should be stressed is a neutralizing antibody study done in the lab and not based upon real-world data, has been sent out for peer review.
    **************************************************
    This is the reason why we have different flu vaccinations each year.
    We are getting there, no doubt
    But here's the problem.
    Forget our overall lack of good health here in the U.S.
    Just think about all of us who have diseases that affect our immune system or take medicines that affect the immune system. Millions upon millions of people are immuno compromised already.

    Again, not a peer reviewed, or even a big study. Just food for thought

  27. Vog46

    We are constantly bringing up the concept of "risk" which in itself is a PERCEPTION.
    We manage risk in our everyday lives. Sometimes badly. In those cases the government has to manage the risk for us. They don't do this willy-nilly. They collect facts and figures and act accordingly. In some cases they work with private entities to promulgate rules to minimize risk.
    Autos are a prime example. Everyone believes they can handle higher speeds, but the reality is we can't. Younger people have faster reflexes, and keener eyesight. Older folks tend to be more cautious and be more aware that they are "slowing down". Both groups are equally as dangerous to the other. This is why we have speed limits, recommended by the NHTSB using data collected from the states and private insurance companies. Insurance companies don't want to pay out excessive claims. PERIOD. OSHA regulations are the same. They arose out of companies being sued for unsafe practices. Insurers turned to the government for help. Workmans compensation is partially paid for by employee contributions and employer contributions - but the medical bills are paid by that same insurer and they don't want to make the payout. Here in NC we get hit by a lot of coastal storms, hurricanes etc. People are building too close to the shore causing insurers to have to fork out big money for these high dollar expensive waterfront home repairs and replacement. They raised rates so high (due to costs - a TRAILING indicator) that people (and insurers) asked the government to step in and they did with the coverage provided by the National Flood insurance program. So that little old lady in Iowa, living along a creek or small river that floods once every century is partially paying for our expensive waterfront home repairs that happen every 5 years - or more so in Louisiana!
    The insurers are spreading the risk between themselves and the government.

    If private insurance was paying for COVID where would we be? After 800,000 deaths and many expensive treatments in ICU's - resulting i too many lawsuits against hospitals and health departments? Lawsuits against insurers who normally cover healthcare. Imagine if Blue Cross Blue Shield KNEW that this could case death and or serious healthcare concerns and DID NOTHING? You can bet that they would turn to the government for help.
    Big tobacco USED healthcare companies and the coverage provided by them to minimize the perceived risks of smoking. It was only when the HC insurance companies wised up that they, along with the public intervened to get the government to start proposing regulations against smoking.

    RISK is not understood by many. Government regulations, in spite of public outcries, are typically written in someones blood. You get DWIs in NC they add "points" to your license and your insurance companies can raise your rates or cancel you entirely - because you are incapable of acting in a risk adverse way. That accident you had on the way home from the bar resulted n payouts by YOUR insurance company. The Police proved you acted irresponsibly.
    I wonder what would we be talking about right now had the private insurers had to cover all COVID expenses? Cruise lines and airlines are floating and flying petri dishes. Their air handling equipment is designed to reduce costs, and recirculates air - making disease spread something they are very sensitive to.
    Same goes for assembly line type companies. They WANT the regulations so they can eliminate the financial risk to themselves. They just don't want to come out and say that. But if the government FORCES people to get vaccinated, the cruise lines have less risk.
    Less risk is a good thing

  28. Pingback: Do normal people really not care about COVID? – Kevin Drum

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