March was another good-news-bad-news month for PCE inflation:
Headline PCE inflation dropped a bit to 3.9%, but core PCE increased to 3.9%. The inflation level is proving to be a little more stubborn than anyone hoped for.
On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline PCE came in at 2.7% and core PCE was 2.8%.
I suppose at this stage there is something sourly amusing about the soi-disant "trend lines"
Else, secondary transmission as long warned of to the inflation denialists.
could it be that we may be in a period where 3% and not 2% is the "norm?"
And what would be wrong with that? Where did the 2% number come from? It's arbitrary and the experience after the 2008 recession suggests it's too low.
that's precisely my point. sure 2% would be ideal but maybe we're in a period, post pandemic, when that's not achievable or realistic
Except you can make a good argument that 2% isn't ideal. This was originally thought to be enough to provide room to lower rates during downturns. The 2008-9 recession revealed the fallacy of that belief when we hit the zero lower bound.
The 2% target was essentially the creatin of the New Zealand Central Bank and spread from them. It became a general rule of thumb on its apparent success in the 1990s through the 2008 crisis.
3% could be quite fine, even prior to the 2008 crisis there was discussion of this. However change at this time when a stable 3% is also not achieved won't be done.
Inflation has not gone away as either a domestic political, or practical issue.
Indeed! The people who don't want to vote for Joe Biden have loudly seized upon this as a reason to not vote for Joe Biden. Until they seize upon another reason, this will continue to be a "domestic polical" issue.
still waiting on trump's plan to address inflation
He plans on increasing it with more tariffs
The mentality of the Pre Loser, constant search for excuses rather than working to address weaknesses
An ad hoc assertion that non-supporters will never support Biden.
Which by the percentages of 2020 versus now is simply outright false, as there as been a loss in support levels in key geographies, demographics.
But rather than admit error or address a weakness, the losers pre-explain they could never win over votes.
12 month PCE rate of 2.7/2.8 is pretty spot on.
The actual rate of inflation has never really played a role in the current inflation panic, so the reaction is not surprising.
Et voila, the illustration of the Left fraction Inflation Denialism, the working class is just imagining and too brainwashed to understand they really are imagining inflation impact on their consumption basket.
So very successful the demarche....
Poor Lounsbury often avoids the facts at hand and instead projects his own constant dismissal of LIBRULS!! onto whomever he is responding to and then attacks his own projection.
LIBRRRUUUULLLLSSSS!!!!!
Must be tiring to be at war with ones self every day.
It used to be that the inflation target was a band from one to three percent. We're within the band. When did it switch to a point target at two percent?
Under 3% is good, but if April through May go like January through March did, year-over-year inflation will be up and out of that band.
Um, April through June, I was trying to say.
If you compare the US to the EU, which would you rather have:
(A) A robust economy that hasn't yet had a soft landing, and thus has had higher inflation and lower unemployment
(B) A weak economy that appears to be at its soft landing, and thus has had lower inflation and much higher unemployment
Services are still pushing inflation higher. Prices for goods have been in check for a year and a half now.