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PCE inflation will probably come in low tomorrow

The GDP price deflator came in at an annualized rate of 3.5% for Q3. If the PCE inflation number is close to that—which it usually is—then PCE inflation for the quarter will also come in around 3.5%. Given the numbers for July and August, this suggests that PCE inflation for September was 3.1% ± 1%.

If this is the case, it would be well under the September CPI number of 4.9%. We'll know for sure tomorrow.

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