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GDP rises a whopping 4.9% in Q3

Published on 25 Comments on GDP rises a whopping 4.925 in Q3

And the winner is.......the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast. Here is the BEA's official first print of Q3 GDP:

Real GDP grew a whopping 4.9% in Q3, very close to the Atlanta Fed's 5.4% forecast. Never doubt the Atlanta Fed!

I assume this presents us with the usual dilemma: Is it good news because the economy is going gangbusters, or bad news because it might prompt the Fed to raise interest rates? Count me in the good news camp.

25 thoughts on “GDP rises a whopping 4.9% in Q3”

  1. Salamander

    Whatever, it's Bad News for Biden and his Dems in Disarray!

    Particularly since the Republican Clown Car has finally come to rest and the party has at last found its Johnson.

  2. jte21

    Is it good news because the economy is going gangbusters, or bad news because it might prompt the Fed to raise interest rates?

    Answer: it doesn't matter and no-one cares because gas is still expensive and a dozen eggs costs $5. Oh, and Joe Biden is old.

    1. steve78723

      I read an article that said the average price of a dozen eggs in 1955 was 84 cents. That would translate to a price of $9.33 now.

      1. jte21

        Most food today is way cheaper than it was for our parents and grandparents thanks to increases in agricultural productivity, agribusiness consolidation, and factory farming technology. That's why there were all these filmstrips and other media in the 50's aimed at helping the "thrifty" homemaker "economize" in the kitchen and make every dollar stretch. Food was expensive.

        On the flip side, small family farmers and growers could also make a living back then. Good luck with that now.

      3. irtnogg

        Sure. The average price of eggs right now is $2.09, according to BLS. I bought eggs 10 days ago for $1.89. Let's look at past years (adjusted for inflation in parentheses):
        - 1998 = $1.04 ($2.09)
        - 2013 = $1.91 ($2.62)
        - 2018 = $1.74 ($2.36)
        The price of eggs right now is close to a historical low, and 11% less than it was in the middle of Donald Trump's term in office!

    2. Joseph Harbin

      It's no joke. Assignment editor at NYT says, "Get me a story on the price of oil," and this is what they got.

      Why Olive Oil Is So Expensive Right Now
      Prices have more than doubled as extreme weather hit crops in Spain, Italy and elsewhere. The upcoming harvest isn’t looking much better, so that drizzle of oil on your salad may remain costly.

      ...A 750-millileter bottle of Bertolli’s extra virgin olive oil that cost around $9 at the grocery store last October is around $11 today, a nearly 22 percent increase, according to IRI, a data provider.

      https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/22/business/olive-oil-price.html

      $11 for a bottle of olive oil!? Oh, the humanity!

      1. jte21

        I cook with a lot of olive oil and I've noticed a substantial price increase at my market. I'm pretty comfortable, however, so it's not going to kill me to pay a couple of bucks more and I place premium on buying high-quality ingredients. Others aren't so lucky.

        On food inflation in particular, the thing people have to realize is that climate change and climate disasters are going to continue to wreak havoc on our food supply. All the deflation in the world won't change that.

        1. Joseph Harbin

          No doubt climate will have an impact on food, among other things. And good for you, you can afford finer quality ingredients in your cooking.

          For those who find the price of a 750-millileter bottle of Bertolli’s extra virgin olive oil too steep, they can still get a bottle of olive oil for five and a half bucks at Target.

          More broadly, inflation in food prices has cooled quite a bit since the pandemic, and globally the food price index is down more than 20% since its peak in spring last year.

  3. jdubs

    Mike Johnson(?) is elected, BOOM! The economy takes off. Dems in disarray! The Republican economy is saving us from the Biden inflations!

  5. NotCynicalEnough

    Gas in NorCal is down about 50 cents/gallon from the summer peak, but I didn't read about it in the NYT so it is probably just my imagination. But I can imagine the headline if they do publish it (with apologies to the pitchbot)

    Gas prices down sharply, why that's bad news for Joe Biden

  6. Excitable Boy

    Good to see the KD of old not go for the click bait take. Don’t get me wrong I still frequent this joint for his contrarianism, but his constant glass is half empty judgments the past three months or so have seemed forced and not well researched.

  7. different_name

    I mean, at some point Powell is just going to go on Xitter-tube and shout, "No mortgage for the sub-seven-figure crowd until you elect a Republican president."

    Dude has not been subtle.

  9. Solarpup

    NY Times Pitchbot today:

    "We were told a recession was coming. Now the economy is booming. Another broken Biden promise."

    or

    "Opinion | The Mike Johnson economic boom has begun"

    or just for Kevin:

    "Does that 5% growth factor in inflation? Because if you have 5% more money but 4% inflation, it's really only like 1% growth. I wonder if economists have ever thought about this."

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