The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model is currently predicting that Q3 GDP will come in at 5.4% growth (!). The New York Fed is at 2.5%. The "blue chip consensus" has converged on 3.5%. On Thursday morning we'll get the official number from the BEA and declare a winner.
11 thoughts on “Who has the best forecast of Q3 GDP?”
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It'll be below 2.5%. Markets will be happy, not because it came in low, but because it signals a cooling and the Feds will unlikely raise rates again.
After all, aren't we supposed to be entering a recession soon, according to the experts on long and variable lags of monetary policy?
A trip down memory lane and i recall the US being 10-12? months into the 2007 recession before anyone realized we were in a recession.
Also, lots of similar commentary during that 10+ month window with people mocking or dismissing anyone who claimed that danger lurked ahead.
Just a memory........
It was the 2008-2009 recession. I knew what was coming in March of 2008 when Bear Sterns essentially collapsed. I remember it quite well, on account that I was on vacation and wondered if that was going to be the last vacation I would have for a while.
the numbers look good, not quite Atlanta good, so stock markets are opening down
Right? It's so funny how it works. They really wanted to see a cooling economy so that the Feds wouldn't raise rates again.
No matter what it is, journalists will earnestly compare it to "economists' expectations", because media groupthink dictates they are the benchmark against which all economic data is to be evaluated.
4.9%!!!
Robert Reich, Do Billionaires Have a Right to Exist?
https://robertreich.substack.com/p/billionaires-dont-have-a-right-to
I vote "no."
Billionaires have one thought for humanity,
https://i.redd.it/stla5ofu5jwb1.jpg
Almost 5% -- markets aren't going to like that.
Oh, well. Now that the Lords of Shutdown and the Granny Starvers are back in charge of the House, they'll be able to knock those numbers down a few notches.