As I was puttering around the BEA's release of GDP data, I noticed that it included the most recent PCE inflation indexes too. However, it's quarterly, not monthly, so we have to wait until tomorrow for the March numbers.
Or do we? If we know the quarterly indexes from last year and the quarterly growth rate for 2023, and we know the January and February indexes for this year, then some simple arithmetic should give us the March number. Let's try it.
Quarterly index for Q1 2022 = 120.323
Annual growth = 4.9% (per today's BEA release)
Therefore quarterly index for Q1 2023 = 126.218
January index = 125.858
February index = 126.189
So: (125.858 + 126.189 + March) ÷ 3 = 126.218
March index = 126.609
February-March change = 0.33% = 4.0% annualized rate
If this is correct, the month-over-month PCE inflation figure for March was 4.0%. For core PCE it was 7.4%.
These numbers don't seem quite right to me. I wonder where I went wrong? In any case, I'm going to publish this post just to remind myself to take another look on Friday, when the official monthly figures are released
Again, the PCE does not represent new information, it is just a different weighting of the CPI data. Maybe if the BLS used AI it could compute the PCE faster and get it out at the same time as the CPI.
Your Q1-2023 is wrong -- it's 126.182.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=12Vue
But, you make the assumption that there are no revisions. There are almost always revisions going back two periods.
Using your assumptions, March = 126.499
126.499 > 126.182.
What does that tell you?
Whatever the numbers, we’re going to be stuck with skilled labor shortages for a while. And that will be bad in the long run as it will keep us burning oil. Not enough electricians to make the switch. Too many people making money on TikTok. 😂
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/20/us-electricians-shortage-recruit-women?ref=upstract.com
And no… women will not become electricians in meaningful numbers.
If there is investment and there are well-paying jobs, the workers will be found. In WW II women became riveters, electricians and all kinds of other moderately technical workers that were required for things like aircraft construction. The prime-age employment ratio (FRED:LNS12300060) is still below what it was in 2000.
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