Has Donald Trump's felony conviction hurt him? Naturally I was curious to see the results of the first post-verdict weekly poll from YouGov.
The answer is "slightly." YouGov finds that the verdict made 5% of the electorate less likely to vote for him and 2% more likely to vote for him. That's a net loss for Trump of 3%. On the question about vote intent, Trump registered a net loss of 1%.
These are small numbers and may not hold up. But it's pretty safe to say that if the trial had any effect at all, it was pretty small.
But take a look at this chart, which breaks down vote intention by gender:
Trump gained four points among men and lost five points among women. The trial verdict made Trump even Trumpier, which apparently men liked and women didn't.
Likewise, the verdict made conservatives more likely to vote for Trump and liberals less likely. Self-IDed moderates didn't move at all.
Everyone lies to pollsters now. They were already voting for trump. No one is changing their mind.
No one is changing their mind.
I think it's entirely possible the verdict will push a modest number of persuadable voters who were "gettable" for Trump into the Biden camp. So, maybe this hasn't "changed" their mind. But it may have helped them make up their mind.
We're surely talking about a fairly modest number. But in a close election who knows what will end up being decisive?
It's also possible the damage isn't done: Trump still has to face sentencing.
There are other polls showing that. Reuters found that even 10% of Republicans said the verdict makes them less likely to vote for Trump. I am surprised the number is that high.
Or at least change their vote to RFK Jr. or stay home on Election Day, if voting for Biden is a bridge too far for these folks. Either of those would be beneficial as well.
"More likely" is stupidity that is typical of pollsters and the clueless journalists who write about polls. Everyone who said the verdict made them "more likely" to vote for trump was going to vote for him anyway.
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Who, in heaven's name, would be MORE likely to vote for him who wasn't already certain to do so?
no one. it's performative polling responses.
I look at those responses as "I was going to sit home and drink a case of bud light, but now I need to own them libs!"
As concerning aa it is that he may have enough votes in the right places to take the electoral college win again, I'm at least as worried that his continuing "prediction" of angry supporters will b
result in more stochastic terrorism.
I'm at least as worried that his continuing "prediction" of angry supporters will b
result in more stochastic terrorism.
I'm not worried about that at all. Right wing terrorism will help Joe.
Too many women have tolerated the bad behavior and attacks on women from too many men for far far too long. If enough women learn to stand up for women, Trump will never win. (This includes Dems who vote like republicans when it comes to women’s issues.)
Up to now, all Trump's major embarrassments have boosted his standing in the polls, so him taking a one-percent hit is fantastic news!
I agree with this. We should be patient and let the verdict sink in. This 1% could easily grow.
Of course, it would help if Democratic candidates, including Biden, had a strategy for taking full advantage of the fact that Trump is a convicted sleazeball.
It would also help if the mainstream press criticized Republicans as much as they criticize Democrats. But I guess that is asking way too much.
I still hope. The Biden campaign might be bidin' their time, so to speak. They'll unleash the ad buys and rallies when and where they can make the most difference, closer to election time.
Polls are a bit worthless on this matter. Literally 0 people will be more likely to vote for Trump because of the conviction. Very few of the truely undecided voters even know about this conviction at this point.
C'mon ppl, stop wasting time tracking these polls of registered voters. According to the poll, 91% of registered voters would probably or definitely vote.
Pigs will fly before 91% of registered voters vote.
It would seem to be a logical fallacy that an unreasonable response to one of the questions means that responses to other questions are also unreasonable.
IDK if it can be called an "unreasonable" response; more like an indicator of reliability. If the response to this particular question is clearly contrasting reality of actual voting patterns, then it follows that the responses to the other questions are unlikely to reflect the true opinion spread of actual 2024 voters and therefore meaningless for people to track with regards to the true outcome of the 2024 election.
As I've said in the past, you might as well track all Americans rather than just registered voters. As more states move to same-day registration, the distinction between registered voters and all Americans is rendered moot.
The novelty of flying pig rides to the polling station might get us up to 75%.
I chuckled a bit when I went to double-check my memory of the 2020 turnout rates and saw a state by state map. In a complete nonsurprise, the highest turnout states mostly went Biden (Florida being the exception) and the lowest turnout states all went Trump. As if we needed another piece of evidence why the GOP is so big on roll purges and the like.