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Professionals study logistics. Apparently the Russian army isn’t very professional.

Published on 125 Comments on Professionals study logistics. Apparently the Russian army isn’t very professional.

Wikipedia used to confirm that my favorite proverb is "Amateurs study tactics; professionals study logistics," but I guess somebody must have removed it. Nonetheless, it still is my favorite, and it's apparently something that the Russian military should have paid more attention to:

There's an awful lot of amateur military analysis on the web these days, and I can't independently vouch for any of this. But it sounds sort of reasonable and fact-based, and the writer isn't a nutball or anything, so I thought I'd pass it along.

The biggest reason to doubt this analysis is that it's just plain hard to believe that the Russian army could have screwed up something so fundamental. "We'll need to manage supply lines a few hundred miles long" is Warfighting 101, after all. If they really have forgotten that, I have to wonder just what else they've forgotten.

POSTSCRIPT: This reminds me more generally that one of the reasons the US military is the best in the world has nothing to do with its size or technological superiority. It's because we fight actual wars every few years. In the past three decades we've been involved in wars of all types and sizes, from Iraq to Somalia to Kosovo to Afghanistan to Iraq again and then to Libya. Now we're getting some practice in massive, modern economic warfare.

Needless to say, this is not a good reason to fight lots of wars. But there's no question that it gives us an advantage that no one else on the planet has.

125 thoughts on “Professionals study logistics. Apparently the Russian army isn’t very professional.”

  1. cld

    The more I read about corruption in Russia the more I understand why so many Republicans think the place sounds like paradise.

    It really does seem to be just the place for them.

  2. D_Ohrk_E1

    Oh, that Ukrainian POW/KIA list was public for a while. They've put it behind a search field, now, but I reviewed it when it first came out. The POW list was about 176 at the time.

      1. D_Ohrk_E1

        Yup, yup. Thanks for posting it.

        Google Translate extension for Chrome (and others) allows you to translate the page.

      2. KenSchulz

        Upper right corner (in Safari on iPad) shows Укр. Рус En for Ukrainian, Russian and English titles and headings

  3. cld

    In a few weeks those dead soldiers will all start returning home to be buried, and all those wounded soldiers will be returning home and they'll be able to tell people how they really got shot.

    Will Putin arrest them as he threatens to arrest anyone else who doesn't parrot his party line?

    1. Martin Stett

      Putin's probably readey for his own version of this:
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_No._270
      "Order No. 270, issued on 16 August 1941, by Joseph Stalin during the Axis invasion of the Soviet Union, ordered Red Army personnel to "fight to the last," virtually banned commanders from surrendering, and set out severe penalties for senior officers and deserters regarded as derelicting their duties. "

      1. cld

        I'd insist I was performing a wide flanking maneuver.

        I wonder if they're allowing the wounded to be sent home or keeping them in hospitals until they can be sent back, or the war is over.

  4. mudwall jackson

    all the tanks, all the divisions are absolutely useless unless you can move them and keep them supplied. it was obvious even before the war that logistics was russia's weakness.

  5. KenSchulz

    Latest is that Russia carried out a cruise-missile bombardment of a base a few kilometers from the Polish border. Could he be trying to draw NATO into responding, because it would be less embarrassing to negotiate with NATO than with Ukraine? If NATO’s response to a border violation was measured, as I would expect, a sane leader would not counter disproportionately. Would that be an acceptable off-ramp?

  6. spatrick

    "The biggest reason to doubt this analysis is that it's just plain hard to believe that the Russian army could have screwed up something so fundamental. "

    Anyone who has studied military history know full well the Russians are perfectly capable for screwing up logistics for military operations. It's almost like it's in their blood.

  7. D_Ohrk_E1

    Some calculations to think about:

    ~100-126 Russian Battalion Tactical Groups inside Ukraine right now (based on DoD estimate of 75% of all of Russian BTGs)
    10 tanks per BTG
    233 confirmed tanks lost (destroyed, damaged, abandoned)
    ~18-23% of Russian tanks in Ukraine have been lost in the first 3 weeks.

    7000 Russian troops dead, DoD estimates
    14K-21K Russian troops wounded, DoD estimates (re: my prior ref to a 3:1 wounded to dead ratio)
    21K-28K Russian troops not fighting
    14-19% of committed fighting personnel in Ukraine are out of the battlefield

    This is a war of attrition and Russia is losing it badly. Biden is providing Putin the means to his self-immolation and Putin can't help but douse himself and light the match.

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