I know that measuring COVID cases is no longer considered especially useful, but case rates are still the best early warning metric we have. Here are the case rates for the US and a bunch of European countries:
The US has the lowest case rate among all these countries and it has the lowest test positivity rate. More worrisome, though, is the fact that several big European countries—Germany, Portugal, France, the Netherlands, the UK—have started to spike back up. This may just be an artifact of different testing regimes or it may predict a comeback for Omicron as countries start to eliminate pandemic restrictions. Wait and see.
Several have started spiking back up in hospitalizations, too. One theory is that is BA.2, the Omicron variant, driving it.
The CDC's move to de-emphasize case counts and only recommend action once hospitals reach capacity is a purely political move. Once hospitalizations start spiking up, a couple more weeks of hospitalization growth is basically baked in.
Maybe this was bound to happen, people just want to get back to normal, and Democrats, just like Trump did, want people in a better mood for the next election.
That variant has been in the US just as long. I think lockdown hangovers. Should have let it burn through.
Burn through lasts three to four months.
BA.2 + reduced NPIs + waning immunity
Color scheme is....fun....
On this chart, the US peaked ca. Jan 15th at ca 2500 cases/million.
From WorldoMeter: Germany has over 3.5 million active cases, and just less than 2.5K serious or critical cases. No breakdown of vaccination status or co-morbidities.
For more details on England (cases and hospitalizations rising):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/covid-cases-england-omicron-levels-ons-data
In the US, 26 states plus PR and at modest levels of transmission (CovidActNow). Looking at state and county numbers individually, some bouncing around 10 new cases/day/100K (US average now 11.6 or 116 on Kevin's scale) Hospitalizations still dropping in US--remember, lagging indicator.
I was in the Netherlands when the government announced the lifting of practically all restrictions. The media consensually fawned like, oh how wonderful oh how wise. Interviewing mostly people who were happy with the news. I think everyone knew cases would start rising again.
Basically one country after another is hanging out the white flag. I can't even say they're wrong. We fought Covid and despite the vaccines lost . It's an endemic disease now. We won't be masking and social distancing all our lives.
Putting restrictions on was the mistake. It just kicked the can.
It bought time to develop the vaccine. We may still have lots of cases, but thanks to the vaccines we don't have the same hospitalization or death rate. Sure, it's disappointing that we didn't knock out COVID the way we knocked out polio, it's more like coming to terms with AIDS, except the anti-condom people won.
We fought Covid and despite the vaccines lost
Maybe. Clearly most Western nations have done a lot worse than many countries in Asia. On the other hand, it's safe to say we'd be a lot worse off had vaccines not been developed. And at this juncture, life is pretty normal for the vaccinated. Is that losing? I guess it's semantics.
I wonder to what extent European countries have been administering the various treatments available for people in the early stages of Covid. LA Times article indicates that ramping up here:
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2022-03-12/l-a-county-launches-test-to-treat-covid-19-program
It’s fine. The unvaccinated will suffer. The rest of us will hardly notice.
You mean lockdowns are a waste of time??? Who would have thought it??? Unless your getting a society piercing event that requires cordon's run by the military so a treatment could be found, lockdowns are a waste.
Hopefully the social Democratic political parties finally have figured it out. Enough Jesus Christ posing for old and disabled people. Most in the US are Republicans.
Lockdowns did two good things. They did slow and abate COVID, and they got people thinking about how shitty their jobs were. We were able to roll out the vaccines that dramatically cut the risk of hospitalization and death, and we have people quitting their jobs, retiring early and the resulting labor shortage giving workers a tad of leverage after four decades of all too successful class warfare against them.
It could be that the recombinant variant -- https://bityl.co/BIjZ -- that is popping up in Europe may be the driver of a mini wave. Why a mini wave? Well, because the big Delta and massive Omicron waves weren't too long ago so lots of antibody protection plus T-cell memory, so, only a smaller group of ppl vulnerable in this wave.
Covid deaths are up about 80% in the UK so far in March (7-day average).
The numbers are funky--looks like some reporting artifacts, maybe low values too low? Either way, numbers are up--though maybe dropping again (back below 100)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
So we're number one?! Shows the greatness of Biden and the Democrats, obviously.
Denmark is now suffering a higher covid death rate that it ever did before, and it's as high as the United States reached during this winter's wave.
What's interesting to me about that is that several weeks ago, it was observed that Denmark's high case rate coincided with a very low and declining number of covid cases in ICUs, seeming to show how well protected Danish people were because of their high rate of booster vaccinations.
Now, I don't doubt that booster shots have helped, but the Omicron variant has been deadly in highly boosted populations, too, and Denmark's rocketing death rate has proved that their ICU occupancy chart was misleading. Some of the little bright lights we might want to see don't turn out to be real.
For the "other metrics" files, Kevin's former favorite, deaths per million per day:
Rank Population (Millions) Country Deaths/Day/Million 7-dav Avg
1 5.77 Denmark 7.38
2 5.53 Finland 6.87
3 4.00 Georgia 6.86
4 1.91 Latvia 6.44
5 2.76 Lithuania 6.26
6 1.33 Estonia 6.03
7 5.46 Slovakia 5.71
8 7.00 Bulgaria 5.57
9 9.68 Hungary 5.41
10 10.47 Greece 5.05
11 145.87 Russia 4.49
12 4.13 Croatia 4.39
13 18.95 Chile 4.31
14 2.08 North Macedonia 4.25
15 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.11
16 10.04 Sweden 4.07
17 51.23 Korea, South 4.01
18 329.06 US 3.87
19 2.08 Slovenia 3.64
20 1.20 Mauritius 3.58
21 37.89 Poland 3.39
22 42.81 Sudan 3.18
23 10.69 Czechia 3.13
24 8.96 Austria 3.09
25 19.36 Romania 2.98
26 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 2.97
27 1.18 Cyprus 2.91
28 444.97 EU 2.79
29 8.77 Serbia 2.69
30 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 2.63
31 83.52 Germany 2.51
32 31.95 Malaysia 2.45
33 5.38 Norway 2.36
34 60.55 Italy 2.36
35 4.88 Ireland 2.34
36 46.74 Spain 2.21
37 3.46 Uruguay 2.06
38 211.05 Brazil 2.04
39 2.96 Armenia 2.03
40 32.51 Peru 1.98
41 4.04 Moldova 1.91
42 82.91 Iran 1.87
43 11.54 Belgium 1.84
44 65.13 France 1.73
45 83.43 Turkey 1.66
46 5.80 Singapore 1.62
47 127.58 Mexico 1.62
48 8.52 Israel 1.56
49 67.53 United Kingdom 1.55
50 8.59 Switzerland 1.53
And then the "goto" when the off-phasing of waves was perhaps inconvenient, the cumulative death rates:
Rank Population (millions) Country Cumulative Deaths/Million
1 32.51 Peru 6505
2 7.00 Bulgaria 5155
3 3.30 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4730
4 9.68 Hungary 4611
5 2.08 North Macedonia 4385
6 4.00 Georgia 4136
7 4.13 Croatia 3709
8 10.69 Czechia 3660
9 5.46 Slovakia 3460
10 19.36 Romania 3322
11 2.76 Lithuania 3125
12 211.05 Brazil 3105
13 2.08 Slovenia 3081
14 37.89 Poland 2994
15 329.06 US 2940
16 2.96 Armenia 2897
17 1.91 Latvia 2850
18 44.78 Argentina 2839
19 4.04 Moldova 2804
20 50.34 Colombia 2767
21 1.39 Trinidad and Tobago 2639
22 11.54 Belgium 2635
23 7.04 Paraguay 2630
24 60.55 Italy 2589
25 43.99 Ukraine 2556
26 10.47 Greece 2531
27 127.58 Mexico 2517
28 145.87 Russia 2420
29 67.53 United Kingdom 2418
30 11.69 Tunisia 2397
31 512.50 EU w/o Brexit 2328
32 444.97 EU 2314
33 18.95 Chile 2297
34 65.13 France 2166
35 46.74 Spain 2164
36 10.23 Portugal 2081
37 3.46 Uruguay 2048
38 17.37 Ecuador 2033
39 4.25 Panama 1915
40 11.51 Bolivia 1865
41 8.77 Serbia 1775
42 10.04 Sweden 1773
43 1.33 Estonia 1770
44 1.81 Kosovo 1726
45 58.56 South Africa 1703
46 8.96 Austria 1695
47 82.91 Iran 1674
48 2.49 Namibia 1609
49 8.59 Switzerland 1544
50 83.52 Germany 1504
Here's the link to the spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1vPxCBqCXsRvjR3PdLn0vXdJQF3wao-Ry5bS3Fe_9Qxs/edit?usp=sharing
It's hard to judge case counts anymore because of the availability of home testing kits now. I've been assuming for some time that about half of covid cases in the US aren't being reported.
Texan
Absolutely correct.
Then there's this:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-03-14/are-covid-cases-going-back-up-sewer-data-has-potential-warning
Bloomberg reporting the same thing. Increases in wastewater samples showing COVID.
This may be the ONLY metric we will have available to us in the future because both DEMs and especially REPUBLICANS are "sick" of COVID. For the GOP they would be hard pressed to push real hard on restricting absentee voting if we were in another wave of covid. For Dems they are afraid that COVID could turn into a political football of blame like they did with Trump
But everyone here is missing the points
A - in order to mutate a virus has to SPREAD and that is EXACTLY what is happening. We alone, as a country cannot stop it or slow it down. That requires a world wide effort. Based upon our dismal record with climate change I'd say we're out of luck getting anyone to agree on anything (with the exception of Ukraine)
B - as you pointed out Texan the at home testing rendered official stats useless. Lets say you've got it and your employer has a policy that says "Test positive you stay home UNpaid." What would MOST Americans do? They'd work.
C - As a result of all of this all the stats will be skewed. You know that that results in? The news media will begin harping on "Excess deaths" as the only true marker of showing how bad COVID got. Republicans would HATE this as would DEMs.
D - China's reaction(s) are putting the entire worlds economic health at risk. Shutting down entire cities and provinces will wreak havoc on all supply chains. If their breakout IS worse than the original Wuhan outbreak I would expect them to take draconian measures again.
WE have been surprised too many times by this disease and it looks NOTHING like the original Wuhan virus. I do not believe we are endemic yet.
By some estimates there are 40M U.S. citizens with comorbidities. That is an awfully big pool of candidates.
Have you seen South Korea's COVID infection rate? https://bityl.co/BK0f