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Raw Data: How the Ten Biggest States Are Doing On COVID-19 Cases

Published on 12 Comments on Raw Data: How the Ten Biggest States Are Doing On COVID-19 Cases

So how is everybody doing on the COVID-19 front? Here are cumulative COVID-19 cases for the ten largest states. I'm showing just the past few months so that the differences are visible to the human eye:

Total cases to date range from 8.9% (Pennsylvania) to 10.4% (New York). California is flattening out at the moment, while every other state is continuing to rise.

I'm really unsure what lesson to take here. On the one hand, sure, some states are doing better than others. On the other hand, the differences aren't huge. To some extent I think that's because different state regulations have (a) been less different than you'd think, and (b) are playing second fiddle to local and corporate rules anyway. Texas can declare that no one needs to wear masks, but if restaurants and supermarkets continue to require them then people will wear masks.

UPDATE: I made a mistake in the original version of the chart, omitting Pennsylvania and adding New Jersey. Both the chart and the text have been corrected.

12 thoughts on “Raw Data: How the Ten Biggest States Are Doing On COVID-19 Cases”

  1. illilillili

    At least one of the differences is huge. One state has seen cumulative cases increase by 50%, while other states have seen 10% increases. Indexing states to the same starting point would make this easier to see.

    More importantly, at this point in the endgame, we shouldn't still be seeing these kinds of increases. The messaging from January on should have been consistent: you've worked hard to get this far, hang tight for just a little bit longer, it looks like May is when we will start reopening (assuming 70% of adults get vaccinated).

    1. Atticus

      That message has different meaning for different states. Here in FL things have been back to normal for many months other than the wearing of masks. I can't think of anything in day to day life that is really different now as opposed to pre-pandemic. (Cruises not taking place the one exception off the top of my head.)

  2. Clyde Schechter

    Well, Mr. Drum, you have been living in California through this. Surely you remember that after the first couple of months, enforcement of the regulations for business shutdowns, social distancing, and masking largely evaporated. So the situation was not much different from what prevailed in states that had lax regulations, or none at all. The adoption of non-pharmacological interventions was driven by those localities that actually enforced regulations (including businesses) and what people undertook to do on their own in response to their impressions of the current state of the epidemic.

    Look, I live in north Orange County. When I go out for my regular walks, I see that the percentage of people wearing masks now, with relaxed regulations and low incidence rates, is not noticeably different from what it was during the worst days of January and February, when things were raging and we were still in the regulatory "orange tier." It was close to zero then and remains so now.

    Lockdowns, as practiced in the US and Europe, that is, imposed only after community spread is already out of control, withdrawn before the situation is resolved, and patchily enforced while in effect, really don't make much difference, if any at all. I guess that's not very surprising.

  3. weirdnoise

    At one point California was near the top in case rate (cases per capita), back when L.A. was going through (a somewhat reduced) version of the NYC Covid Crisis and some of California's interior counties were unmasked and out of control. But no more; of the 50 states it's dead last and has been for some time. With a test positivity rate of less than 1% this is no illusion, either.

  4. aldoushickman

    "Texas can declare that no one needs to wear masks, but if restaurants and supermarkets continue to require them then people will wear masks."

    As a (reluctant Texan), I can tell you that corporate policies re masks in restaurants and supermarkets were poorly followed when Texas (grudgingly) said masks were needed, and it's gotten worse ever since Texan leadership declared masks were no longer needed.

    I think that your hypothesis that local and corporate rules are playing a role that swamps state policies misses a bigger point: group identity and politics are national, and one national party decided to turn mask-wearing into a wedge issue.

    1. JimFive

      RE: Michigan
      Sort of. The increase in cases correlates very closely with opening up school sports which was pushed heavily by the wingnuts abetted by the clueless. It also appears to be exacerbated by a variant that is more contagious and more likely to affect the kids.
      Also, the Governor has less authority to impose lockdowns since the legislature sued and the State Supreme Court threw out the emergency powers law that she was using as justification.

      1. Atticus

        Why would school sports in MI be such a factor but not other states? FL has had school sports all year and there hasn't been any issues.

        1. cld

          Youth sports and other extracurriculars are spreading Covid-19, health officials say,

          https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/06/health/youth-sports-covid-spread-wellness/index.html

          (CNN)Children may be spreading Covid-19 through extracurricular activities like sports, health officials say.
          After-school activities are creating clusters where coronavirus can spread among children, said Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
          "We know that these increases are due, in part, to more highly transmissible variants, which we are very closely monitoring," Walensky said Monday at the White House COVID-19 Response Team briefing.

          The virus was linked to high school wrestling tournaments in Florida last December where 38 people tested positive, according to a CDC report published in January.
          . . . .
          The CDC recommends children limit youth sport participation and follow specific guidelines when engaging in those types of activities. The organization listed nearly a dozen different recommendations, including minimizing the time spent indoors and reducing the amount of time players spend in close contact with each other.

          Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned about the spread of Covid-19 among children who participate in youth sports.

          "We're finding out that it's the team sports where kids are getting together, obviously many without masks, that are driving it, rather than in the classroom spread," Fauci told ABC's George Stephanopoulos Tuesday on "Good Morning America." "When you go back and take a look and try and track where these clusters of cases are coming from in the school, it's just that."
          . . . .

  7. cld

    COVID-19 | A.P. strain at least 15 times more virulent,

    https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/andhra-pradesh/ap-strain-at-least-15-times-more-virulent/article34474035.ece

    . . . .
    Confirming the enhanced power of the virus, District COVID Special Officer and Principal of Andhra Medical College P.V. Sudhakar said, “We have observed that the new variant has shorter incubation period and the progress of the disease is much rapid. In the earlier cases, a patient affected with the virus would take at least a week to reach the hypoxia or dyspnea stage. But in the present context, patients are reaching the serious condition stage within three or four days. And that is why there is heavy pressure on beds with oxygen or ICU beds,” he said.

    Experts also point out that unlike during the first wave, a shorter exposure is enough to acquire the virus, which enables an infected person to infect four to five persons, within a shorter contact span.

    “Most essentially, none is spared, as we have observed that it is affecting the younger population in a big way, including those who are fitness freaks and have high immunity levels. It is also observed that cytokine storm is occurring faster, and some are responding to treatment and some are not,” said Dr. Sudhakar.
    . . . .

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