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Raw data: Inflation in the US and Europe

Pandemic inflation in the US and Europe was nearly—but not quite!—identical:

Why was it nearly the same? Because in both places the underlying causes were the same: supply chain shortages combined with rescue packages that kept demand steady.

Why was it a little different? Because the US passed a gigantic stimulus all at one time in March 2020. This produced a nearly vertical surge in inflation a year later.

Europe, by contrast, relied more on its existing safety net, which expanded more slowly. It also passed a stimulus bill, but it was smaller than ours and came four months later. This produced a surge that started later and grew a bit more slowly.

Nothing after that mattered more than slightly. Inflation peaked four months apart and then declined at exactly the same rate. The ECB raised interest rates later than the Fed; held them lower; and cut them sooner. It didn't make any difference.

The entire non-poor world had almost identical experiences. Low-income countries, which were largely on the opposite end of supply chains, were a bit different: they suffered even worse inflation and it persisted through 2023.

8 thoughts on “Raw data: Inflation in the US and Europe

  1. Thyme Crisis

    Even Japan experienced inflation, which is quite the accomplishment considering their several decade-long run of deflation (or at best stagnation).

  2. James B. Shearer

    "...Because the US passed a gigantic stimulus all at one time in March 2020. ..."

    More revisionist history from Drum. The Biden administration's $1.8 trillion American Rescue Plan passed in March 2021 and included $400 billion of immediate stimulus payments which went out in March and April.

    1. bobwoody

      The CARES Act was passed in March of 2020. It does ruin the narrative a bit when there were two stimulus packages exactly one year apart though.

  3. jdubs

    Chart does a good job of showing that inflation started as the vaccines rolled out and reopenings occurred in early 2021. This is prior to the final US stimulus program in the spring of 2021.

    Im sure some will insist that the 2021 stimulus traveled back in time and was the cause of inflation, but we can point and laugh at those narrative attempts.

  4. jamesepowell

    And all this time, I thought prices were under the direct control of the president. Or least when a Democrat is in the White House.

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