The Census Bureau reports today that retail sales were down 1.3% in May. However, this is pretty meaningless:
As you can see, retail sales shot up way above the old trendline in March and have stayed there for the past couple of months. There's no special reason to think that spending above trend should last forever, so a few months of noise that eventually gets us back on trend is precisely what we should expect. Everything is fine.
This is truly strange.
A lot of reporting is year-over-year, which Kevin frequently points out is misleading when last year was such a disaster. Now, when year-over-year seems like the normal way to report retail sales (seasonality, y'know), all of a sudden they are reporting month-over-month? Wassupwidat?
The rule is simple: What method generates the most eye-catching result, regardless of how meaningful that result is?
the numbers are seasonally adjusted, so month to month comparisons are valid. click the link to see the report.
“Remain calm. All is well” -another famous Kevin
Surely retail sales are down because consumers are pulling back in response to high inflation?-)
Or people used up the $1200 stimulus check and income tax refunds?
Kevin Arnold?