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Raw Data: Here’s How Lethal Routine Traffic Stops Are

The police killing of Daunte Wright has sparked renewed interest in the use of routine traffic stops as a pretext for pulling over anyone that police deem "interesting," which mostly turns out to be Black men. That got me curious about how many routine stops turn into police killings of unarmed civilians. According to the Washington Post Fatal Fatal Force database, here's the answer for the year 2020:

The Post database is not the only source of this information, and I had to apply some judgment to distinguish "routine" traffic stops from others (mostly those where police were called to the scene). You can go through them yourself if you want, but I don't think anyone would disagree with my assessments by more than one or two at most.

There are two things to notice:

  • Very, very few routine traffic stops end in the death of an unarmed person. The total was eight in 2020.
  • With the caveat that the sample size is small, it's clear that Black traffic stops are far deadlier than white traffic stops. Among all traffic stops that ended in the death of an unarmed civilian, Black drivers are killed at 36x the rate of white drivers. Among routine traffic stops, they are killed at 15x the rate of white drivers.

It's a little hard to know conclusions to draw here. On the one hand, the racial disparity is unbelievably huge. On the other hand, the absolute numbers are tiny. A grand total of four unarmed Black drivers were killed by police during routine traffic stops in the entire year 2020.

That said, these are the facts. It's up to you to decide what you think they mean.

26 thoughts on “Raw Data: Here’s How Lethal Routine Traffic Stops Are

  1. lawnorder

    "Unarmed" is an unnecessary limitation. Philando Castile was armed, but there was still no justification for shooting him.

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      Exactly.

      He had no intention to brandish nor use his weapon, but knowing the cops were likely to search his car "for reasons", he preempted any suspicion about the gun they would find by noting he was, no different than an Oafkeeper, a "good guy with a gun".

      Unlike an Oafkeeper, that didn't work out for him. Anyone wonder why?

  2. James B. Shearer

    "With the caveat that the sample size is small, it's clear that Black traffic stops are far deadlier than white traffic stops. Among all traffic stops, unarmed Black drivers are killed at 36x the rate of unarmed white drivers. Among routine traffic stops, they are killed at 15x the rate of white drivers."

    How are you computing these numbers (36x and 15x)? What are you using for the total number of traffic stops and routine traffic stops for black and white drivers?

    1. SDSwmr

      Thank you for this. I can't figure out how the rates were computed either. I would appreciate it if someone could 'show the math' so that I could understand it better.

  3. akapneogy

    "Among all traffic stops, unarmed Black drivers are killed at 36x the rate of unarmed white drivers. Among routine traffic stops, they are killed at 15x the rate of white drivers."

    Another set of bars for the total nuber of stops, suitably normalized, would have appropriately emphasized this striking statitics.

    1. limitholdemblog

      The problem is CNN isn't really news anymore either.

      It's better than Fox, of course. But it follows the same playbook- take a single issue, blow it up, and discuss it all day. There's very little actual news programming, i.e., a rundown of various important stories in the world that might be of concern to viewers, on CNN anymore either. It's all talk shows with commentators designed to gin up outrage.

      1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

        This comment is drawing close to Matt Taibbi's recent Substack ramble that Rachel Maddow is the new Bill O'Reilly.

        & why is she, you ask. Because she has become the chief propagandist of the fake Trump-Russia collusion, much as Bill-O was the primary herald of the falsified WMD intelligence that stoked Iraq 2 passions & led to the quagmire in Mesopotamia.

        1. realrobmac

          Matt Taibbi is a brilliant idiot. But limit's comment about CNN is still 100% accurate. They don't so much have news shows as shows where people express opinions about the news.

        1. ey81

          Too sordid to merit attention. The media needs stories that make people angry; this story can only make people sad.

  4. Vog46

    Under read about our methodology:
    "The FBI and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention log fatal shootings by police, but officials acknowledge that their data is incomplete. In 2015, The Post documented more than twice as many fatal shootings by police as had been recorded by the FBI. Last year, the FBI announced plans to overhaul how it tracks fatal police encounters."

    Looks like they'e building a database built on shifting sand
    Sorry Kevin but the above statement shows there's no validity to the statistics

  5. firefa11

    Also, deaths from traffic stops, 2014-2019:
    UK: 0
    France: 0
    Germany: 0
    Italy: 0
    Spain: 1
    Norway: 0
    Sweden: 0
    Denmark: 0
    Japan: 0
    Korea: 0
    Taiwan: 0
    Australia: 0
    New Zealand: 0

    My new working hypothesis is that the US is undergoing a prolonged, if unacknowledged, civil unrest/civil war.

    1. rainman

      Your statistics confirmed my initial reaction. The fact that even Kevin Drum sees the US numbers as extremely small just shows how inured we are to shockingly unacceptable levels of violence. If the police can't be trained not to shoot unarmed people, they need to get out of the business of performing routine traffic stops.

      1. Vog46

        rainman-
        How do you know the guy behind the wheel is unarmed?
        We assume innocence until proven guilty
        Yet we allow for 350MILLION plus guns in our country and NOBODY knows who's got one two or twenty guns. Not even the police

        It's become an untenable situation

        1. rainman

          That is why I suggested that we need a new model for catching broken brake lights that doesn't immediately risk an armed confrontation. I don't want the police to be risking their lives unless there is a clear assessment of imminent danger to others or themselves. I don't want them risking my life either. I'm happy to be notified by mail that my brake light needs changing.

          1. Vog46

            A national gun registry would allow for the police to determine if the driver of that vehicle has a license to carry and/or owns a gun and the cop could determine that by running the plate which they normally do before they set foot outside the cruiser.
            Don't get me wrong - owning a gun does not make it any less or more risky than any other traffic stops but it puts the police on notice that there MAY be a weapon in that vehicle they are stopping.
            But for too many folks taking the time to inspect your own vehicle periodically is just too much to ask.............

          2. realrobmac

            Cameras. Computers. Mail. We are well past the point where we need cops to pull people over for most things, even speeding. Outfit cop cars with traffic cameras. Send the ticket in the mail.

          3. KawSunflower

            That is why I fear Virginia's lunatic drivers not only for their illegal driving m but because of previous incidents in which road rage was worse by immediate access to a loaded gun.

            Seldom see police here until it's time to pull over drivers at checkpoints with multiple motorcycle officers looking for expired inspection stickers.

    2. rick_jones

      You've included a select subset of countries in Europe and Asia. Why not either of the other countries in North America or even Central or South America for that matter?

  6. rick_jones

    Very, very few routine traffic stops end in the death of an unarmed person. The total was eight in 2020.
    With the caveat that the sample size is small, it's clear that Black traffic stops are far deadlier than white traffic stops. Among all traffic stops that ended in the death of an unarmed civilian, Black drivers are killed at 36x the rate of white drivers. Among routine traffic stops, they are killed at 15x the rate of white drivers.

    Am I correct in assuming the statistics from the second bullet item are computed from the sample of eight of the first? Or is the lack of "routine" in the second salient?

  7. golack

    How many times are black motorists threatened with violence or treated with violence during a traffic stop...vs...say....a white motorist getting a warning?

    1. irtnogg

      It doesn't even have to involve violence or even the threat of violence, because frequently harassment can lead to resistance and, ultimately, violence. When I was in grad school I lived in a black neighborhood for a year. During that time, I got stopped ten or eleven times while pulling into or out of my street. On every occasion but one, as soon as I rolled down my window and the LEO saw I wasn't black, they sent me on my way. The one other time, I was asked what I was doing there and where I lived (the house right before the church), given some nonsense about failing to signal, and sent on my way. I was even stopped once while WALKING while wearing a hooded sweatshirt.
      Now, maybe I was just a careless driver, but in almost 40 years of driving, I've been stopped less than ten times total -- except for that one year -- and never for walking. I mentioned this to one of the neighbors and she rolled her eyes and told me that everyone got stopped, and the only difference was that I didn't get hassled after the stop.
      So, no violence, but a heck of a lot of simmering resentment. And no good comes of that.

  8. johnholbrook1

    I don't think Kevin knows how to do math.

    45 million black Americans divided by 13 deaths is one in 3.5 million.

    250 million white Americans divided by 10 deaths is one in 25 million.

    Controlling for rates of getting pulled over, I imagine that gap closes a bit--black drivers probably get pulled over more.

    Finally, Kevin ignores suspects' behavior. If cops start shooting the second they see a black driver, that's obviously bad. Almost all shootings of unarmed suspects, however, involve a cop or bystander getting pummeled, fighting over a weapon, or at risk of getting run over. Kevin knows this.

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