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Stop the silly season before it gets started

We're getting an early start to the silly season. Writers are getting bored because there's no interesting campaign news, so they're pulling out all the hoary cliches:

Give it up folks. RFK Jr. is a crackpot who will be soon forgotten. There will be no meaningful third-party competing in the general election. Republicans will not have a brokered convention. No one serious is going to primary Joe Biden. There will be no Democratic debates. The Electoral College will not end in a tie.

Sorry, I know it's boring. But in the end, Republicans will nominate someone who will then face off against Joe Biden for the White House. As usual, it will proceed perfectly normally and without any weird fanfare.

22 thoughts on “Stop the silly season before it gets started

  1. MattBallAZ

    Third party will throw the election to the loser of the popular vote, ala 2000 and 2016.
    Not so boring.

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    1. lawnorder

      Consider how many different people the claim that "X is a crackpot who will soon be forgotten" has been applied to. Now consider how many times the claim has been wrong. To my knowledge, it has been wrong exactly once in my life, and I remember President Kennedy. The odds are very high that Kevin is right.

  2. KJK

    If Captain Bone Spurs gets convicted of felony charges before the MAGA convention, it could get interesting. If he gets convicted after the nomination, perhaps even more interesting. No doubt the MAGA crowd would vote for him regardless of his legal standing.

    1. lawnorder

      That's not weird at all. It's common in parliamentary systems for the winning party to have received less votes than the second place party.

  3. Brett

    Barring imprisonment or something else, Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. He probably won't show up for the debates with other Republican candidates for the nomination either.

    It's weird to have a presidential race where basically nothing matters in the political news until about July or August next year, because we won't have a real primary season.

  4. NeilWilson

    The odds of a tie are not as big as you think.
    Probably in the 2% range but I will defer to people like Nate Silver, wherever he ends up, or to 538.

  5. different_name

    If a journo could be bothered to look for a story somewhere other than Twitter, perhaps they'd have something interesting to write about.

    Srsly - how many recent stories have been of the form, "...but nobody bothered to ask?" The fake plaintiff in yesterday's SCOTUS case, and Santos both come to mind. Low-hanging fruit that only cost a phone call each for national scoops.

  6. KawSunflower

    It's hard for me to understand even the most conservative of the Biden Democrats casting a vote for a Kennedy who has spoken of being grateful for trump's praise.

    As bad as his father was, secretly honoring McCarthy at his grave, it's difficult to imagine him having such a reaction to trump.

    1. Yehouda

      "It's hard for me to understand even the most conservative of the Biden Democrats casting a vote for a Kennedy"

      It is not the "Conservative of the BIden Democrats", it is the crazies that normaly vote for Democrats, and may go to RFK jr. instead.

      1. KawSunflower

        Really? I've encountered many crazies where I live now, but none of them are Democrats - they're all southerners proud of their family's CSA history, now calling themselves Republicans.

        Kinda like that Republican who thinks that the members today's Democrat(ic) Party - the former northern wing of the Democratic Party - should 't be allowed to vote due to 19th-century treason by members of the southern wing of the Democratic Party.

        No wonder Youngkin & his ilk don't want actual history taught. Their sense of the past is so twisted that the current governor once reacted to something by saying "that's not the Virginia I grew up in, " when we know that his state was segregated & providing textbooks with respect for its Confederate forbears back then.

        And of course, I CAN imagine many of my fellow Democrats voting for "a Kennedy" just not RFK, Jr. His whole life is a sad tale.

        1. HokieAnnie

          There's a different sort of crazy though - there's the crowd that buys the stupid products from GOOP that lifestyle blog/site from Gwyneth Paltrow and is into "wellness". These folks aren't the ones whose ancestors were Lee's cannon fodder at Gettysburg. These could have been Nader or Stein voters but mostly I think there's a cultural subset in the US now that is easily taken in by hoaxes but from this direction instead of the usual conservative and religious bent.

          I'd say a lot of those folks are non-political but could be pulled in with the right charismatic charlatan. UGH.

  7. cld

    Jimmy Kimmel said RFK, Jr is really Borat.

    And presumably the real RFK, Jr is so disoriented he doesn't realize it's not him.

  8. cld

    As a third party candidate Kennedy wouldn't attract many Democrats but he might attract some independents, Libertarians and cranks who don't want to vote for Trump but live in a dream world otherwise.

  9. Martin Stett

    "William Moloney is a senior fellow at Colorado Christian University’s Centennial Institute, who studied history and politics at Oxford and the University of London and received his doctorate from Harvard University."

    Christ on a cracker . . .

  10. KenSchulz

    … in the end, Republicans will nominate someone who will then face off against Joe Biden for the White House. As usual, it will proceed perfectly normally and without any weird fanfare.

    One of our former major parties, now a quasi-religious cult, will nominate a person with multiple felony indictments. Not normal, thank goddess.

  11. kiers

    the weird fanfare will be in the war! You forget we have a MAJOR war on? (Can't blame you, the MSM set it such that even during the midterm 2022 elections, the white board nerds on cable didn't mention "the war" as even among the top 10 issues of import for "the voter".)

    imho, An October surprise is guaranteed. Maybe they throw Iran on the pot too side by side.....strange republic.

    1. lawnorder

      To Ukraine, and to Russia, it's a major war. To the western countries, it's not. No boots on the ground, no casualties, very modest amounts of mostly used weaponry. The cost barely shows as a round-off item in national budgets.

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