Did the end of the expanded Child Tax Credit spell doom for Democrats?
NEW: Congressional Democrats had a 12-point generic ballot lead over the GOP in December among recipients of the expanded child tax credit.
That benefit has dried up, and now congressional Republicans have the advantage with this group of voters. https://t.co/IDFTls4Cc7 pic.twitter.com/tQxKkWIGSn
— Eli Yokley (@eyokley) April 6, 2022
Normally I'd be skeptical of this reasoning, but this drop in support wasn't matched across the board. It happened only among CTC recipients.
The reason is pretty obvious: the CTC is a highly, highly visible thing. One day you're receiving an extra few hundred dollars per month and the next day you aren't. Policy doesn't usually move voters a lot, but this is an exception. It's a policy that has a big effect on your personal life.
Again, this is because Democrats refuse to demonize Republicans because of who they are, though it's because of who they are that we have every single problem that we face.
A Republican is sewage and should be treated exactly as we would treat sewage.
No, it's because Democrats didn't extend the CTC.
We're in power. We have the Presidency and (for the moment) Congress. Blaming the opposition party when you're in power doesn't work--not for Republicans and not for us.
If somebody dumps sand in the gas tank it's not my fault the car doesn't work, but if everyone thinks I'm the only person who has anything to do with the car that is what they'll think.
Manchin & Sinema + GOP. Dems need to win a bigger majority in Senate & House. Or be able to make Manchin & Sinema offers they can't refuse.
Democrats need to realize they can't be a moderate "centrist" party anymore. We need fighters as energetic and focused as the GOP extremists.
Voting rights
Abortion & privacy rights
Black rights
LBGTQ rights
Labor rights
Hope for lower & middle class wage earners.
All depend on defeating the GOP--the ENTIRE GOP.
I think that’s a more difficult and speculative situation than you think. I have argued for some time that neither Manchin nor Sinema are acting out of deeply held principles but are instead opportunists who arms can be twisted by the Democratic leadership. For both, their political and economic futures depend heavily upon being elected Democrats.
I believe that Manchin, in particular, is vulnerable to pressure from the Democratic leadership. From everything that I’ve read about him, Manchin seems to have parlayed his political power into significant wealth in the millions and now relies heavily upon his being an important federal official to protect himself from law enforcement and administrative agencies such as the EPA. I think that if Democrats make it clear that if he costs them control of congress in the midterms they will pursue a relentless vendetta against him, Manchin will fold.
What isn’t clear is whether the Democratic leadership has pursued such an approach, failed, and is waiting for an opportune moment to stick knives in their backs; in which case we’re screwed. Or speaking harshly to a member of the club is considered unthinkable; in which case, we’re also screwed.
Democrats want to always be seen as civil & never as attack dogs. I understand that tendency but think that messaging can go on the attack, can illustrate the stark differences in the parties' concern for actual humans rather than slogans.
So the question is whether or not we can we present a repeated, daily face of opposition to Fox & "friends" without descending to their level?
Otherwise, such gentlemanly speeches as those heard from Biden & Obama usually give the appearance of fecklessness. And I don't want to criticize either of them.
Democrats always want to be seen as capable of good governance and responsible stewards of the nation's welfare.
The Republicans? Not so much. That ship sailed long, long ago.
It’s good to be responsible and capable of good governance. But it’s also good to get things done. As that great American philosopher Al Capone remarked, you can get more done with a kind word and a gun than with a kind word alone.
The depressing thing is that they don't seem to make the connection that Republicans are the reason that the benefit is not being continued.
They never do, so Democrats need to hammer that home, even if they have to pay for ads on Fox TV & related websites. Lord knows the RW lies enough on their ads on LW sites.
This is the perpetual problem with Democratic policy/politics. The people who benefit most from their policies are also least likely to reward them politically for it.
I guess this is the signal that I should stop reading anything election-related until 2023.
The Democrat's skill at and determination to seek out and put a bullet in every (D) foot they can is just utterly demoralizing.
I sometimes wonder what it would be like to have an occasionally competent, non-disingenuous party representing even a small part of my interests. That must feel nice.
The extension would have to be done by Congress, not executive order. Democrats can't just pass anything they want - basically anything opposed by 40 Republican Senators has to be in a reconciliation bill, and so far Manchin and Sinema have killed such a bill. So why don't the CTC recipients realize that it is Republicans, not "Democrats" who are withdrawing the support?
This is really up to the media, not Democratic politicians. Politicians must speak through the media, at least until the campaign really gets going and they spend their own money on ads. Instead of running headlines like "REPUBLICANS KILL EXTENSION OF CTC" they run pundit pieces blaming Democrats. Yes, in many case they do blame Democrats directly.
Maybe as the election nears Democrats will run ads blaming Republicans, or pass a stand-alone bill in the House so that Republicans will have to kill it in the Senate. But at the moment saying that Democrats are idiots for not passing an extension is not political reality.
I think a part of the problem is that the Democrats and their consultants tend to look at politics differently than Republicans. When the Republicans are in control, they rarely pass up the opportunity to force Democrats to take tough votes regardless of whether the bill will pass. It’s forcing Democrats to go on record with a vote that matters most.
By contrast, over the past 69-years or so, Democrats have increasingly tended to do what you’re doing: simply determining what can pass but never wanting to be divisive or partisan by forcing GOP to take hard votes. There’s nothing important enough for an institutional Democrats to disrupt the comity of the village by making anything more than perfunctory political attacks on Republicans.
The Democrats should be using their control of congress to force Republicans to take hard votes and use hearings to force conservatives to commit to and elaborate upon their extremely unpopular policies. Politics is not a tea party.
They never do, so Democrats need to hammer that home, even if they have to pay for ads on Fox TV & related websites. Lord knows the RW lies enough on their ads on LW sites.
?! This site ordinarily blocks any attempted reposting if there is a delay in seeing the first; interrupted, saw text still here & original far above. Sorry but surprised it wasn't blocked.
Did the Democrats try to pass the Child Tax Credit extension as a separate act on its own? Why not?
It would be trivial to blame the Republicans (and any democrat that vote against) if it was a separate act.
I would be curious to know the pre CTC political alignment of this group.
Did the addition of the CTC persuade historic Republican voters to support Democrats?
Were historic Democrats so frustrated with the Dems, for the loss of the CTC, that they switched their stated political party?
How many of the CTC folks would have considered themselves not in either party before receipt of this money?
Basically, what is the FULL impact of the CTC?
I think someone like you would say the effect of the CTC was to breed a culture of dependency like what killed J.D. ANTIVAXXX's mom.
Well, that killed her, until he ran for Senate. Now, it's Messicans what killed her.
The difference in preference for Dems over Reps (.43 vs .46) in April among former CTC recipients is close enough that they may actually reflect the preference (that is, no difference in preference) in the larger population (.43 vs .43), with the apparent reversal in preference just due to sampling error. In that case, the real story is that while CTC recipients were getting benefits, some folks, maybe 3 - 5% of CTC recipients, who otherwise prefer Republicans, had their preference shifted in the Democratic direction, and when the benefits ran out, reverted to their previous preference. I don't understand the thinking of this group, but then, I don't really understand why anyone who qualifies for CTC benefits would ever prefer Republicans.
Unfortunate downside of having a large volume of low info voters. Continually forget most benefits they enjoy only exist due to Dem efforts.
Put the blame where it belongs: Joe Manchin
Senator Maserati Houseboat is just the firewall. He's immune to pressure from the party he claims to represent, is utterly clueless, a little Trumpy and a little bit more dumb, so he's perfect in that role.
But don't think there aren't 10 or so other (D)s who are glad they don't have to take the heat.
The party is trash where it isn't incompetent at the congressional level. It's only selling point is not being the ethnonationalist authoritarian party.
Perhaps even more frustrating is that Republican Sen. Mitt Romney has offered an even better CTC proposal than the Biden/Dem plan. Which means that there could be a bi-partisan effort to help families with children.
https://www.peoplespolicyproject.org/2021/12/21/the-romney-child-allowance-is-good/
Sen. Romney + 49 Democrats + VP Harris? Assuming Sinema will be on board …
Doesn't this beg the question, "Why are such stupid people allowed to be parents?" If they actually blame Democrats for the end of this program, they are ignorant and gullible well beyond any sane limits to their degradation of the human genome.
Just so we're clear, no matter how much Democrats try (and sometimes succeed) to do things people like, if there's the slightest hiccup the default must always be to vote for the jackals trying to prevent all of it.
Clearly either our country has been completely consumed by right wing propaganda, or we as a group just don't have the critical thinking skills for a democracy to actually function.
The latter, IMHO. Education 21 C style is woefully behind the times. For starters -- the absolute minimum -- we need to make classes in rhetoric and logic mandatory for a high school diploma.
Weaponize Federalism.
https://www.politicalorphans.com/democrats-should-weaponize-federalism/
Nope. Your poll and organization behind it is trash. It would be fun to torture those behind it. They would demonize it and it would be lost to history.