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The national mood these days is very liberal

James Stimson of the University of North Carolina has been tracking the public mood for decades. Here are his findings up through the final quarter of 2020:

The public normally becomes more liberal when the president is conservative (and vice versa) but the turnaround under Donald Trump was unusually strong. If these preliminary results hold up, the national mood today is more liberal than it's been in over 50 years.

Will this get transformed into liberal action? So far, it seems to have done just that. President Biden is overseeing a surprisingly robust liberal agenda and there's been very little backlash to it. The public may not be rallying in the streets to support him, but most people outside the Fox News bubble seem to be OK with what he's doing. I predict that eventually the same will be true of his decision to pull out of Afghanistan.

12 thoughts on “The national mood these days is very liberal

  1. akapneogy

    Get us a national mood index appropriately weighted for the elctoral college, senate filibuster, gerrymandering and the overall undemocratic representatrion in the senate. Then we can talk.

    1. rational thought

      I am pretty sceptical of this. First, looking at the link I am fairly confused as to what is being measured. And it does seem like mostly what one person thinks counts- although it sounds like trying to be some sort of fair measurement. But kind of one person's opinion of what is liberal or conservative mood ( and changing those criteria some times too).

      And look at the graph. As Kevin did say, the mood generally changes in reaction against who is in power ( which seems mostly president with congress counting less but still important- note more conservative trend starting just after Watergate when Ford was president but democrats in congress really controlled things).

      But do you really think the nation goes back and forth in actual opinion like that? I do not.

      But what happens is the side " out of power" gets more stirred up and willing to answer polls, etc. And it usually seems to turn about a year after the change in power. So are we going to have a conservative swing in this index soon?

      Maybe? But I would add that something else has changed over the last five or so years. Republican conservatives are just extra distrustful of the media and pollsters and more reluctant to respond ( or even just lie to mess with them), whether they are In or out of power. That makes it harder to know what is being measured anymore.

      And per this graph, the us national mood last yrar was near all time high liberal. And yet trump with all his flaws came reasonably close and Republicans almost won the house?

      Polled liberalism maybe went up more than normal with trump in power but boy he sure managed to stir up liberals and got them excited in opposition. So makes sense. And really not all that dramatic. The rise in conservative after Clinton was first elected even bigger.

      1. ejfagan

        This is Jim Stimson's Policy Mood variable, which he's been putting out for a few decades. Stimson takes a series of survey questions and codes them for a liberal or conservative direction. So, 65% of people answer "yes" to "Do you support same-sex marriage?" the index records a .65 liberalism. If 40% of people answer "yes" to "Do you support higher taxes for the rich" it records a .40 liberalism.

        There's a long political science literature finding that the net liberalism in policy mood tends to move away from the incumbent party. Political scientists interpret this as "thermostatic", meaning that as perceived policy becomes more liberal, the public decides it wants government to slow down and be more conservative, and vice versa. The more governing parties do, the harder the backlash.

        There aren't a lot of ungated articles, but here's one that might help if you want to read more:

        http://fbaum.unc.edu/papers/MPSA-2011-Mood-Policy.pdf

        I should note that the criticism of Policy Mood is that the questions change over time. If the questions become "more liberal" in response to conservative governance, it could create an upward movement in mood despite no real movement in public opinion. Stimson tries to take this into account when picking questions.

  2. Spadesofgrey

    This is heavily based on single issues. JFK was no liberal by modern means. He opposed civil rights legislation, social legislation and other "liberal" goodies. A New Dealer yes.

    1. JonF311

      In the course of 60 years the positions that define one as a liberal do change. Hardly no one supported SSM in 1960, and support for abortion rights was fairly limited. And consider what marked one as a liberal sixty years before that.

  3. ScentOfViolets

    Heh. I would have thought that if this or that particular policy is supported by the majority then, ipso facto, that policy is moderate and mainstream, full stop. But what do I know? I'm just a simple country mathematician.

  4. rational thought

    From the source, it seems like the liberal/ conservative criteria was more based on government issues ( like spending and taxes) and other social issues that correlated well with them. At least that seems the gist but the explanation is fuzzy. If you are only going to use issues which correlated well with left right on govt, why even bother to include them at all?

    And the changing determination of what is liberal and conservative is closer today to jfk time on those govt issues than on others.

  5. rational thought

    What posts would those be?

    The nation is basically split 50/50 and that is basically by definition.

    How people define left and right or liberal and conservative evolve over time as national opinions change. And end up right around 50/50 because that is how most define which side you are on.

    For example, clearly opinion on gay rights has moved over the last decade or so in a more left wing liberal way. 15 years ago, supporting civil unions but not gay marriage ( as Obama said he did whether he was lying or not) was slightly on the liberal side. Now that might be in the 25 or 30% most conservative side.

    And, based on the way Americans have grouped issues, it has always been true that even if overall liberal and conservative split 50/50 or so, the nation leans conservative on social and liberal on economic.

    But the elite lean the opposite.

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