I was doodling around with something this morning and happened to come across a report showing the violent crime rate in 2020. However, this one wasn't the FBI's usual report, it was the annual data from the National Crime Victimization Survey. Here it is:
The FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting shows a slight increase in the violent crime rate in 2020. The NCVS, by contrast, shows a huge decline. If the NCVS is right, violent crime in 2020 dropped to its lowest level ever.
The homicide rate is up in a lot of big cities, for reasons we don't yet understand, but the absolute number of homicides is low and most of us bear little risk of being murdered. In terms of general safety, the United States is now safer than it's been in decades.
The homicide rate is up in a lot of big cities, for reasons we don't yet understand,
Well, according to cops, it's because thanks to BLM and the ACLU they can't wail on black guys or shoot them in the back with impunity anymore, so now the nogoodniks rule the streets. Also cash bail reform in places like NY and CA has meant that the guy who gets arrested for unpaid parking tickets but doesn't have to post bail just walks right back out on the street and shoots your grandmother.
From what I've read, the victims know their assailants in most of these cases. Which has always been true of homicides involving firearms. If you are injured or killed by a stranger, it is most likely that the stranger will be wielding a steering wheel.
I think there have also been several stray bullet type killings lately too. Those get very highly publicized. Across the Bay from where I live a toddler was killed by a stray bullet while his parents were driving down the freeway. That kind of stuff is tragic and frightening. It also leads to a general perception of things being out of control and a need to get tough on crime. You will note, though, no movement towards gun control.
Don't leave out the end of stop n' frisk, which precedes the spike in Movement for Black Lives activity lfollowing the George Floyd murder) by more than half a decade.
That's quite a spike in the NCVS after Trump takes over.
Been wondering how homicide is up and violent crime isn't, since violent crime must include homicides and attempted homicides. Turns out, as I should have realize, homicide is < 2 percent of the total--assaults, robberies, and rapes are drivers.
Most violent crime aren't homicides.
NCVS look very … noisy. Which probably means you want to see more than a year or two to claim a change in either direction.
Sure. But this certainly isn't evidence that there has been a surge in violent crime.
2021 and 2022 could be pretty rough. A lot of assaults and robberies didn't happen in 2020 because people were hunkered down and bars were closed. With life going back to normal, those crimes will rise again.
Unfortunately, murder rates tend to drop slowly. It will likely take years to drop back to pre-pandemic murder rates.
" In terms of general safety, the United States is now safer than it's been in decades."
That's not really saying much, is it?"
Based upon my completely scientific survey of the posts on my local NextDoor in West Los Angeles, we live in the violent death throes of a dystopian hellscape.
The United States is safer than it's been in decades, but in this Waukegan traphouse where the Rittenhouses are holed up, they aren't so sure.
I keep expecting the ravaging hordes to invade my northeast Minneapolis neighborhood, but they must be scared to cross the river or something.
There’s a lot of high profile crime happening right now like the mass smash and grab robberies and auto hijackings. Additionally, I think a lot of non-violent crimes such as brazen shoplifting and catalytic converter thefts get conflated in many people’s minds with “violent”” crime. Thus the perception that crime in general and violent crime in particular is much worse.
Yeah… except there were three people shot at a party 1/2 mile from my home not long ago. Of course, I was asleep so perfectly safe. And they were gang junkie blacks so I’m not really hanging with that kind of crowd.
Perfectly safe. And who cares if the gang junkie blacks want to shoot at each other?
Who cares? Maybe their families?
They don’t have “families”.
No mothers? No sisters or brothers? No wives or children? These folks just spring fully-formed from the ground, like the cidacas in the summer?
I was asleep so perfectly safe.
Let this be a lesson to us all: if you sense danger just go to sleep so you'll be "perfectly safe".
"the absolute number of homicides is low"
Hmm, there were 21,570 homicides in the US in 2020. That's one hell of a lot of people. I consider murders and violent crime in the US as our top problem - even if crime rates are dropping over time. Our violent crime rates have consistently been too high.
Consider the homicide rates for a few countries (homicides per 100k people).
Japan .3
China .5
Norway: .5
Italy: .6
South Korea: .6
Germany .9
Australia .9
Haiti 6.7
USA 7.8
Russia 8.2
Iraq 10.1
Venezuela 36.7
Well, the good news is we beat Russia, Iraq, and Venezuela!
Somehow, I think the 400,000 per year dying of a single disease is a bigger problem than 22,000 homicides.
In a typical year, 40,000 Americans die of the flu, so is the flu a bigger concern than homicides?
Actually, yes. A lot of people get the flu vaccine, but very few people walk around wearing bullet proof vests.
With the proliferation of (relatively) high resolution cameras, videos of crime have gone up massively over the last 5 years. That's what people often see on the news.
Again. If your chances of being a crime victim go down but if you ARE your chances of dying go up 30% then that us very much worse. You can move on from crime. You can't move on from death.