There's not a lot of good news for Democrats this morning. However, consider the standard reasons on offer for Dem losses in Tuesday's elections:
- Biden's "botched" withdrawal from Afghanistan.
- Endless Democratic wrangling over the social spending bill.
- Growing concerns over the economy (inflation, shortages, etc.).
- White backlash to liberal wokeness.
The good news is that Afghanistan will fade; the spending bill will pass eventually; the economy will recover; and wokeness might actually get a well-deserved reining in.
The bad news is that the party in power almost always loses midterm elections no matter what they do.
You may now decide for yourself whether to feel hopeful about 2022 vs. just slitting your wrists now so you don't have to see it.
Not feeling great, but CoupTastic OrangeCrush could still be in power.
In other good news for Democrats, John Kennedy Jr. didn’t show up at Dealey Plaza and declare Donald Trump President. Maybe next year.
But is Keith Richard's actually John F. Kennedy, Sr.?
There's still hope for this year. Are the Stones playing American Airlines Arena or AT&T Stadium?
Playing “Brown Sugar” at the Cotton Bowl seems appropriate.
+1 spade in the band
the spending bill will pass eventually
You sure about that? I was of the same mind just a few days ago, but Manchin's latest posing has me thinking we need to invoke Occam's Razor: he wants BBB killed.
That said, with regards to today's political situation, yes, I'm feeling hopeful. Or, at least, I think the cries of "doom" are massively overdone (Murphy looks like he's held on in NJ, right?). I mean, a bloody nose for the party that holds the White House isn't exactly a radical development in US politics. It's only one state, and Youngkin won't have tons of freedom to maneuver in a state that's increasingly dominated by Democrats (yesterday's victory for the GOP notwithstanding). Moreover, there's a pretty strong chance the covid and economic situations will be improved by next fall, and if I'm Joe Biden, I'd much rather get the Afghanistan pullout accomplished as far from the midterms as possible. Which he did.
Also, the corollary to the infighting and lack of spine invariably exhibited by Democrats is the hubris and overreach invariably exhibited by Republicans (the latter should be arriving any day now, as they rejoice over their massive! unprecedented! momentous! victory over Biden).
Virginia moderates will be in for a shock when Fleece Vest governs like prime 2011 Scott Walker.
That, too. And Virginia is one of those states from which political news tends to reverberate pretty strongly, because of the DC market.
The GQP thought they could steal (California), connive (Virginia), & sneak off with (New Jersey) three governorships in 2021. They got one -- with an overwhelming 2% mandate. (The largest American electoral mandate since Dubya's presidential reelection.)
I think, given the results in Loudoun County, VA, -- epicenter of the Critical Race Theory paniq among GQP qonsultants -- that the Elephantine Party has shot its wad with respect to spooking Volvo Driving Soccer Moms & Militia Dads with CRT & will instead be relying on activating the methgobblin' economic anxious honkys from J.D. Antivaxxx's milieu. & as we well know, methheads are not reliable people.
Yes, but the GOP taking one of three states has Democrats REELING, I tell ya. Reeling like never before. Did I mention Democrats are REEEEELING?!
Is this a Smiths reunion or the Biden White House?
"the spending bill will pass eventually"
Sadly, no... Manchin and Sinema will keep coming up with roadblocks until election night 2022, reveling in the publicity they garner by doing so... then be shocked (shocked!) by the total Republican blowout, and moan about losing all their influence over the legislative agenda.
How can it pass now that the Dems lost the VA governorship? See, Manchin and Sinema were right to block passage.
/s
👍👍👍👍👍
Sadly, no... Manchin and Sinema will keep coming up with roadblocks until election night 2022
Someone on Twitter told me the Senate won't pass the House version of BBB, but they have their own version. No idea if this is the case (I hadn't heard that before). But who knows?
In years past, if it looked like the pendulum would swing back right a bit after a series of Dem wins, I would be disappointed, but not horrified. The problem is that if the GOP retakes either the House or Senate (or -- *shudders* -- both) in 2022, it's going to put a bunch of certifiable fascist wackjobs in charge who won't merely be the loyal opposition, but will do everything in their power to dismantle the republic.
My visceral response is maybe or one can hope. Or:
1. Last night's results spook some DEMS and sink the reconciliation and infrastructure legislation.
2. A few more DEMS, in swing districts decide to retire
3. Democratic infighting (Progressive V Sinema/Manchin) continues
4. Economy (inflation, job creation) is worse than expectations
To be clear, I don't want the scenario I described: however, can you honestly say that the above listed scenario is impossible/very unlikely?
Narrative? NARRATIVE?!? There is no steenkin' narrative. How could there be? No declared winners yet in some places, let alone detailed polling breakdowns.
What you see right now with people talking about 'narrative' is people talking their own book. Mark the for later as the non-serious players they in fact are.
Or Tradcath Ross Douthat trumpeting Yungkins's PWNAGE DU LIBERALS.
Once you're goaded into a culture war fight on their terms, you'll lose--esp. if the other party does not care about policy (or the truth).
Preach it! That is a lot of what happened in Virginia.
So, are you looking forward to post-campaign Sulzberger Advertiser politics team descending on rural Virginia to do a deep dive on the Critical Race Theory running rampant thru the Commonwealth?
I mean, it must be everywhere, if they were that exercised about it.
Does "the economy will recover" mean that the 5.9% rise in prices this year will be reversed, so that people with cash savings will be made whole?
Everything did not go up by 5.9%. It was basically house purchases, cars and fuel and a few food items. Eating out has stayed exactly the same cost at the places I frequent, so all of “food” can’t have increased. Flying jumped compared to last year when I snagged $50 fares to Hawaii, but that’s because those fares were desperation fares not because this year is outrageously expensive. Calm your tits about inflation.
Yup.
I set aside a bucketful of nickels for candy bars back when candy bars were a nickel, and now they're like 80 cents each. When am I going to be made whole?
Yup.
IF you follow Kevin Drum, he has pointed out that these numbers are year-over-year numbers, which means they represent the increase over the inflation number from a year ago -- when prices were in the midst of a pandemic-induced dip. Therefor, today's numbers, while 'correct', paint a falsely exaggerated picture of inflation.
https://jabberwocking.com/kevins-handy-inflation-calculator/
> and wokeness might actually get a well-deserved reining in.
Cranky old white liberal endorses Republican framing. In other news, the sun rose again this morning.
> Cranky old white liberal endorses Republican framing. In other news, the sun rose again this morning.
Or woke nation realizes their over emphasis on wokeness is oppressive and a distraction to the general public in important districts (i.e. non-progressive strongholds)
Perish the thought.
It's obviously False Consciousness and party line should be unwavering, woke revolution will occur via incessant hectoring, sneering at racism of any critique etc.
> to the general public in important districts
You keep misspelling 'white'.
Keep driving center-left liberals away from the party. See if that leads to long-term success.
It's possible to believe as I do that on substance the criticism of wokeness is 90% bullshit but nonetheless recognize that, politically, the "wokeness backlash" narrative might well have helped Republicans. My sense is this is Drum's take.
Okay, let's look at a spot of good news. In far-distant and irrelevant New Mexico, Dem Tim Keller won re-election as Mayor of Albuquerque, defeating a Democratic sheriff who seemed to be running as if he was a Republican, and a small radio station personality who carried the Trumpist banner, incompetence and lack of experience in anything but rabble-rousing included.
Dem Alan Webber seems on track to be re-elected in Santa Fe.
I won't get into the bad news. Enough of that is coming in from the rest of the country.
Land of Enchantment also elected Stansbury in a rout to fill out Haaland's term earlier this year.
Much better result than Karen Handel had versus TERRIBLE CANDIDATE JON OSSOFF.
And the Dems retained NJ. (AND California, a couple months back). The Dems also retained an Ohio House seat, no? And they've elected what appear to be pretty effective politicians as mayors of NYC and Boston.
Honestly, this talk of "reeling" is unbelievably overdone.
Perceptions about the Afghanistan withdrawal are not something we can do anything about in our hugely militaristic nation with its sycophantic press. The economy is mysterious and I have no idea how it will fare. Hope for the best.
But, to put the best light on it, this off-year election should be a wake-up call
for Democrats. This is not a progressive "woke" nation. It is also decent enough (although not by much) to reject Trump. In the 2020 election, Trump lost by about 4 percentage points while Republicans gained in Congress. I can only explain this by some voters rejecting Trump while also rejecting progressive overreach.
Such overreach subsequently resulted in no major legislation getting passed, and progressives holding a Senate-passed bill hostage to members of their own Party! Sinema and Manchin are not the real villains here, although their behavior has been far from satisfactory. The real villain is progressive hubris, exhibited most clearly by Jayapal and Sanders.
Wrong hot take. At least in Virginia it was not a nationalized election - it was about school boards, taxes and abortion, rural Virginians wanted to "take back their state" and voted in even higher numbers than they did in 2020.
Nope. It was Northram mishandled school/covid situation + McC bad overconfident campaigning to that wokeness. He had room to breath from 2020. He blew it. All politics was local.
METH APPALACHIA GREAT AGAIN!
Can't speak for anywhere else, but in Va state issues were bigger than anything from DC. I'd put the economy down as a hybrid issue - and it hurt McAuliffe. The fight over mandates (masks, vaccines) and education (TG policies, "CRT," "parents v teachers") were huge issues. Macker didn't help himself at all, while Youngkin ran like a pro - that made a difference as well.
a little 20/20 hindsight, and picking up on a thread from a news bit:
I think the VA gov election shows that a campaign strategy of painting your opponent as a Trump-wannabe is a lousy strategy, at least when Trump is not on the ticket.
a) For those who point to the Newsome election in CA, he ran against Elder by talking about Elder's positions, not by just calling him a mini-Trump.
b) In VA, with Youngkin distancing himself from Trump, McCauliffe's attacks on him as a Turmpist just gave the hard Trumpists more motivation to turn out: another chance to poke their finger in the eye of the anti-Trump politicians.
c) What did McAuliffe offer to voters? I'm not sure I can see anything that he was promoting as a reason to elect him.
Bottom line lesson from this: You have to run the election you're in, and not fall prey to the easy way out of making it about national partisanship. It's still independents and moderates who rule the day.
I don't like that because the R's make it work for them, but I think it's the truth.
Trump also kept a low profile in the VA race. If he'd thrown a bunch of rallies spewing his "stolen election" BS and forced Youngkin to respond, it would have been a different race.
Yep.
100%
As to B: Yungkins pledged allegiance to an Insurrectionist's flag from the 1/6/2021 March on Washington.
Carlyle Glenn is as wedded to the Rebellion as any other scumsucking GQP motherfucker.
“Yungkins pledged allegiance to an Insurrectionist's flag”
People pledged allegiance to an Insurrectionist’s flag at a rally in support of Youngkin that Youngkin did not attend. (Steve Bannon spoke at the rally, and Trump telephoned in.)
If Youngkin had attended that event, it could have been a disaster for the Youngkin campaign, which is probably why Youngkin refused to appear at any event where Trump would be present (even by telephone). Pack43cress is likely correct that McCauliffe's attempts to try to tie Youngkin to Trump probably energized Trump supporters while failing to persuade swing voters.
What I wanna know is: are we know back to normal where elections are a-ok and Republicans run super-rich hedge fund guys who promise to be mean to black people? If so, seems to me we can set aside the "fascism is coming!" worries.
Meanwhile, Donald Trump is left behind and how he feels about that is a story (for the media, I mean), I guess.
My test for Trump is: will he hold a rally in Richmond and demand the RE Lee statue be put back? And if the statue isn't restored, will he call hedge fund horse-farm guy a RINO? Time will tell...
I hope he demands that James Alex Fields, Jr., gets pardoned by Yungkins for any commonwealth level charges.
I have already drafted my letter asking Fleece Vest to make his first act on his first day as governor the liberation of the GQP's longest suffering political prisoner.
Doesn't sound like you followed the race too closely.
It's early yet, but yes, that's one possible silver lining. A "GOP is returning to normal" dynamic is worth a governor's mansion.
One silver lining for Dems could be if the GOP interprets the Virginia result as meaning Trump is not politically toxic anymore.
If Amanda Chase had been the nominee (in other words, if the GOP nominee had been chosen by a primary instead of a convention) or if Youngkin had not tried to distance himself from Trump (including keeping Trump physically out of the state), the result would have been different.
Also, hopefully Dems will remember how well running against slimy corporate oligarchs for the damage they do to every day people ala the attacks on Romney in 2012 worked much better politically than focusing on racism/misogyny like they did against Trump in 2016 and against Youngkin.
Well put.
2012 and 2016 were vastly different elections. Your example has very little to say about the outcomes.
"The good news is that Afghanistan will fade."
Unfortunately, I don't think so. Even if voters are not consciously connecting Afghanistan to negative gut-feel concerns they have developed about Biden, Afghanistan was the trigger for these concerns. You can see this is the average of opinion polls. After The Taliban takeover, Biden poll numbers immediately sank to 42% approval and 52% disapproval. Ironically, these are about the same numbers Trump had throughout his presidency. I think Biden will continue with the majority disapproving of him. Right or wrong, most people now just don't think of Biden as a strong leader.
We don't have a parallel universe to view what the political situation would be like if reneging on the agreement agreed to by Trump resulted (as it certainly would have) in an increase in the US military footprint, more USA KIA, a slow drip of negative headlines, attacks about "Democratic wars" and so forth...
Funny.
“ The Republican Party — populated with cranks, crooks, clowns, bigots and deranged conspiracy theorists — has spent five years alienating women, minorities and young voters.
The party — and its entire leadership from the grassroots to Congress — remains in thrall to a disgraced, defeated, one-term president, who is reduced to issuing increasingly crazed screeds from his exile in Mar-a-Lago. Every day we learn more about Republican complicity in the events of Jan. 6 and their attempts to whitewash an attempted coup.
The GOP is the party of Marjorie Taylor Greene, Lauren Boebert, Matt Gaetz and Louie Gohmert.
Sane Republicans are heading for the exits, even as assaults on democratic norms have become a litmus test of loyalty.
So, now, Democrats need to ask themselves this rather urgent question:
Why can’t we beat these guys?”
The answer is… because America is a lost cause. It’s a dead country. It’s ungovernable. It’s not worth saving.
Ah so it is mere trolling.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/11/03/youngkin-virginia-voters-lessons-trump-democrats-518716
Denial of these basic facts keeps democrats from adjusting their strategy. I guess you still think there is a way to return to normal. I don’t. So when a candidate wins by campaigning on idiotic lies with no other agenda, normal doesn’t exist anymore.
I would argue the media narrative that the economy is bad right now is another example of media bias towards baby boomers (sorry Kevin as I know you're one).
For retired people, inflation, Covid restrictions, supply chain issues matter far more than the availability of jobs and rising wages. But for job seekers or the employed, the economy hasn't been better in our lifetimes.
People are not continuing to stay out of the workforce because they are overjoyed with their present unemployed situation which means lower income, they are probably just fed up with their old jobs and hoping they can get better ones. There have been some wage increases, but these have been cancelled out by inflation. People may not be calculating their real wages on a weekly basis but there are plenty of scare stories about inflation in the media. If anybody actually cares about increasing inequality, there is plenty in that to be dissatisfied about.
But the fact is that in the Virginia campaign Youngkin relied on the standard Republican appeal to racism, not on any economic issues (don't know about New Jersey). Racism continues to work for Republicans - there are no signs that this has changed drastically because of the election of Biden and the narrow Congressional win by Democrats in 2020.
On please. CRT is racism. Got it yet???
SOYLENT GREEN WAS A GOOD START.
The famous McAuliffe gaffe ("I don't think parents should be telling schools what they should teach") happened on Sept. 28. If you look at the polls, McAuliffe leads by 2 or 3 for months -- including after the gaffe -- but starting Oct. 26 or so, he starts dropping and winds up (in the polls) about 1 point below Youngkin. What happened? Ad blitz?
Polls here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/governor/virginia/
(by the way, his gaffe came when explaining why he vetoed the bill that would allow parents to pull specific books from schools; he wasn't saying parents can have no say in curricula... obviously, such subtleties don't matter when you hand the opponent that kind of weapon... just noting it)
"A single parent shouldn't set policy for what other parent's kids learn. We all want the best for our children and we all should determine it together."
That surely would have been better.
+1 algore invention of the Internet
If covid is still a major issues, the Democrats will have problems. Outbreaks among the un-vaccinated has/will ruin it for everyone else--which is why it is being vaccine refusal is being promoted in some quarters. Though now it's under the banner of protesting mandates, not the vaccine.
A conspiracy theory with some truth behind it!
Counterpoint: Aaron Rodgers can go fuck himself.
Gotta stop the pandemic first. 3000 cases a day in my state the governor planning to open new space to ease hospital burdens and no one is doing anything!!
It's just fucking agony.
Can't stop it. Got it yet boy???
I would have expected local issues to be a big factor for Virginia , with a bad national environment getting youngkin close enough in a fairly blue state so that the local issues and specifics of that race puts him over the top.
Or I would have expected that before seeing yesterday's actual results.
Seeing nj almost go republican, and the other state races and legislature races in VA going republican too ( and sears doing better than youngkin ), it really looks like this was a national swing and had little to do with the specifics of the youngkin Mc caullife race .
If you had known all of the other results - va LG, va ag, va hod , all the nj results, etc., would you not have thought youngkin would have won by more ? In comparison to the other races, it seems youngkin underperformed and mccauliffed overperformed . Which makes little sense as mccauliffe was a bad candidate .
Phil Murghy is hated in NJ. I mean hated. I think Cuomo was liked better than that guy. DeSantis of the Democrats. It doesn't always show up in popularity numbers, something I was have warned before.
On the effects, one thing I think is true is voters do not always seperate issues logically in deciding whether they approve or disapprove.
Many decide whether they like one party or not overall and then apply that feeling to all issues. For democrats, the overdoing of wokeness is extremely and viscerally unpopular with the voters in the center who are persuadable for either side. And that negative feeling then bleeds into opinions on things like the reconciliation bill which mostly has little to do with woke ( note that climate change activism, while part of " wokeness" to some on left or right, is not seen as part of what the middle really hates ) .
I expect reconciliation in its present form is dead now . Too many moderate democrats are going to be spooked for now. But back off the woke stuff, put things like crt in the closet and shut up about them , and voters in the middle may start to approve much of what is in the bill - NEXT Year .
And I think the main obstacle to reconciliation may now be democratic house moderates and not manchin and sinema .
The problem is they started too high with reconciliation with every wishlist democrats wanted stuffed into it . Which meant negotiating down to something passable became hard . And now just not doable. Maybe a really scaled down bill under 1 trillion is possible, but that would just be too humiliating a concession from progressives given where they started.
It's a done deal. The prog caucus blinked on paid leave.......they knew it was popular though Manchin interestingly opposed it. Jayapal bet the farm.
Sinema is now a yes(haha). Manchin after a tweaking on paid leave. Patience grass hopper. BBB isn't some political mover like you think.
But now, even if they can get manchin and sinema , I think they might lose enough house moderate democrats , who are scared of losing their seats, and not be able to pass it in the house .
Way too much focus all along has been on manchin and sinema as being the only things blocking it when they never really were but only the ones willing to be the public face of it ( outside of a few house members like Golden) . But before yesterday, I expect many sceptical democratic moderates would have gone along with anything manchin agreed to ( figuring that as a perceived moderate, his OK gives them enough political cover). But now I think enough will worry about their fate in 2022 to not be willing to go along just because manchin and sinema say so.
And the SALT tax issue has become interesting as a potential roadblock. The results yesterday are going to really make democrats in high income districts in high tax states insist that is in there. But it is a substantial tax CUT for the " rich" and appears to likely mean the final bill will be an overall tax CUT for the rich more than offsetting the higher rates on super rich ( at least for the next few years and ignoring the ridiculous shell game where they reduce salt deductions in future years to pay for higher salt deductions now .
And the problem is that this tax cut for the rich is drawing some attention from principled progressives like sanders in opposition and is such an obvious political target against democrats in non rich districts ( i.e. they voted to cut taxes for the rich while raising them on the poor). This might be a difficult issue to resolve.
The good news is that Afghanistan will fade.
Let’s hope so. The 20 year project to drag that country into the 21st… err… 19th century is a great metaphor for what progressives want to do in the US. And like in Afghanistan, the US will succumb to the forces of religious fanaticism and fascism.
And like Afghanistan, the US contains a divided and ungovernable population incapable of coexistence. All the money in the world couldn’t save Afghanistan. Progressives should learn this lesson. I share their aspirations and ideals, but it is time to move on.
As you note, there is a longstanding trend of the incumbent President taking a beating in the midterms.
What I take away from last night is: Democrats are not defying the trend. The pendulum continues to swing. Getting legislation done and tackling inflation can help us on the margins, but we should expect to lose the House and we'll be doing well to hang onto the Senate.
So whatever legislation we get done this year and next... that's what we get, and that's probably all we get for a good long time, so make it count.
To be clear, are you talking about the perpetually delayed reconciliation bill or the 2022 omnibus?
Do that and expect large groups of people to sit out the midterms. The problem isn't "wokeness", it's the control of the narrative.
Democrats are almost exclusively all clowns so I never had hope they were gonna “save us”.
Anything is better than a master demagogue who is a wanna-be authoritarian. Trump is an active threat to our democracy. He will never concede any election under any circumstances. Our only hope is that institutional checks, and civic-minded officials, will keep Trump from ever becoming the tyrant he longs to be.
Wannabe authoritarian? El Jefe, like Viktor Orban (his host for CPAC2022), is the real deal Holyfield, just lazier.
Also: now I have this stuck in my head:
WANNABE
by Trump Girls
If you wannabe my lover
You gotta look like Ivanka
Making love is family
Incest never ends
I don't think Democrats ever got to grips with the implications of almost losing the House in an election that was all about Trump. His record of corruption and incompetence ought to have seen a massive blue wave down ballot. That his party actually gained seats, and went within a whisker of keeping the Senate, was a sign that Democrats had major problems. Problems which this year has done nothing to solve.
“ But if the mood of the country is that uppity women, racial minorities and hippies need to be put in their places — a very old story — the Democrats are going to have to figure out a way to remind people that the Republicans all worshipped at the feet of the disgusting freak Donald Trump and that’s even worse.
It’s not pretty, but that’s what negative partisanship is all about. Forget restoring the soul of the nation. We misplaced that long ago. Now it’s about trying to save us from authoritarianism, something which those suburban moms forgot about when they reverted to form in the face of lies about Critical Race Theory and defunding the police.”
Nice.
https://digbysblog.net/2021/11/03/both-sides-dont-do-it-3/
Now it’s about trying to save us from authoritarianism, something which those suburban moms forgot about when they reverted to form in the face of lies about Critical Race Theory and defunding the police.”
So deadly and so beautiful.
Ack. So beautiful and so dangerous, that one is. Curse the (lack of) editing function.