A quick word about sentencing. As we all know, judges take into account the totality of the circumstances when they hand down sentences. First time offender? Was anyone hurt? Are there mandatory minimums? Etc.
Conservatives often complain about this because it allows judges to be too lenient. But it's going to be on their side in the Trump case. There's very little chance the judge will send Trump to prison. The sentence is almost certain to be a fine plus probation, maybe, and possibly community service.
Personally, I'd love to see Trump get community service. Wouldn't that be awesome?
Trump is completely unrepentant, his presentencing interview will be a disaster (imagine if that is tasked to, say, a black woman), he's basically going to be contemptuous at every opportunity. I think that gets him a couple months.
All things being equal, someone convicted of a Class E felony in NY, with no prior criminal record, probably wouldn't be looking at serious jail time. But each count carries a possible 1-4 year prison sentence and several thousand dollar fine. The sentence needs to take into account both any prior offenses as well as effective punishment and future deterrence. The monetary fines involved here would be a joke to Trump. So the judge needs to consider what would be an appropriate punishment and/or deterrence measure for someone like this. Plus, Trump has spent the entire trial railing against the system, telling the judge to go fuck himself and basically acting like a massive, unrepentant ass. I wouldn't be surprised if there's some jail time involved here. I doubt it will be concurrent sentences, but a year or two should do the trick, I think.
I wish.
If there is prison time, it will be concurrent sentences, not consecutive sentences.
You are correct -- I meant concurrent
I’m agnostic on Trump’s sentence. I’m definitely hoping for prison time and I would consider anything short of a substantial period of imprisonment to be an insult to the jurors and witnesses who risked their lives. But I just don’t have a clear picture of the judge.
If it was me and a defendant who’d said and done the contemptuous things Trump did, I max him out on all 34 counts and I’d make them all consecutive. Plus, it’s what Trump deserves.
If a judge is a good judge you don't have a "clear picture" of him/her.
We’re all just human and we’ve all got limits. If I were a judge and a convicted defendant who’d treated me the way that Trump treated the judge in his case, and he was coming before me for sentencing, I’d give him the maximum on every count and I’d make them run consecutively.
Those who are president, and have been president, are people of whom we have a necessary expectation of exemplary conduct. We expect them to represent the best of us, as best they can.
Donald Trump prides himself on being the opposite of this, prides himself on getting away with it and does all he can to achieve success through the worst means possible, a manner on vivid display throughout this trial.
Anything less than a maximum jail sentence will be trivial.
Predictions on this trial thus far have been overwhelmingly wrong. I'm happy to wait and see what happens. Maybe he will get jail, maybe he won't. There's only one guy who's going to decide it and he'll do what he wants. No guessing will be able to figure this out ahead of time.
Je suis d'accord. That's what's going to happen. Should it be that way? Sure, if you still believe the justice system isn't just some commodity that's just purchased and isn't shot through with iniquities and partisanship.
But not me.
I'd love to hear the judge say something like "Normally in a case like this a custodial sentence would not be appropriate, but given the prisoner's astonishing absence of remorse and the disdain he has expressed for the entire New York justice system ..."
That's pretty much what I'm thinking. Trump has put a great deal of effort into making the case that he is the unusual first offender who really deserves jail time. The ten counts of contempt are a part of it, and his declamations about kangaroo courts and election interference and the biased judge and how he's the victim of this vast Democratic plot and he's completely innocent and never had sex with Stormy Daniels all can count against him and signal to the court that an exceptionally severe sentence would be appropriate. The fact that he committed these crimes for the purpose of being elected president, an office the holder of which should be setting a good example, should also count against him.
Why do we say he's a first offender, how many crimes have his businesses been convicted of?
Trump personally has never previously been convicted of any crime except contempt of court, which apparently doesn't count.
Every business, every activity he's been involved with has been fraudulent, in every case he demonstrates that he sees crime as the normative state and himself as virtuous because he narrowly avoids the letter of the law or personal accountability. His whole life is about how to get away with crime.
Why shouldn't that add up?
"Should" is an arguable question. However, whatever the law should say, what it does say is that only convictions count.
Then why will a judge take into account qualities like contrition, or naivety, or the self-evident absence of such qualities?
His entire life is about the character we saw on trial here, it seems absurd to think society could benefit from anything better than the sternest example that could be made of him.
There are all sorts of things that are considered besides criminal record. However, by definition a person with no prior criminal convictions has no criminal record and is considered a first offender.
Wasn't he convicted of sexual assault in the E. Jean Carroll trial? And forced to pay huge financial damages for defamation? These court cases count too.
A jury found him civilly liable, ie that it was more likely than not that he did it, and the judge fined him accordingly. That isn't the same as a criminal conviction, which is the proverbial beyond a reasonable doubt. I have no idea where New York fits that into sentencing on a criminal conviction for something else.
Actually, from what I've read the judge can indeed count both lack of remorse and his contempt violations in considering the sentence.
If there’s a New York criminal practitioner out there, I think that cld is arguing for the judge to take notice of uncharged misconduct. This would be permissible in the federal system. Is it okay in NY?
A fine and probation would be a bad joke. But given the difficult logistics of a prison sentence (the SS would probably plead with the judge not to do that), he might get home confinement. This would come into force after the election...you can think about all that entails. Community service would become a photo-op of him tossing paper towels.
Apparently Riker's Island has been making preparations to accommodate prisoner Trump and his Secret Service detail. They don't think imprisoning Trump is unfeasible.
You're right about the photo op.
Donny shouldn't be made to serve people. He should be made to clean public toilets. All cameras disallowed. Reporters can take quotes or draw pictures same as in court.
Probation would be a serious pain for Trump. For instance, he would need his probation officer's permission to leave the state. That permission would almost certainly be granted for campaign events, but Trump would see simply having to ask as a serious burden. For his whole adult life he's been the boss; other people come to him for permission; having to answer to a petty bureaucrat would grate, big time. Complying with probation conditions is a pain for anybody; for Trump it would be near torture. I know it's not as satisfying for us onlookers as jail, but probation is definitely punishment.
Remember that Cohen (who, as far as I recall and I ain't gonna look it up, had no prior record) acted as Trump's functionary in this crime, and served a couple of years.
He got three years after he pled guilty and cooperated.
That was for tax fraud and lying to Congress, so different penalties/sentencing guidelines may have been in effect, but a good point nonetheless. If Cohen -- and also Weisselberg, we shouldn't forget -- have done some quality time in the Big House for this scheme, so should Trump.
Yes, all of Kevin's criteria seems to apply to Cohen, and he got jail time. Nor did Cohen violate gag orders, intimidate witnesses and jurors, etc.
(With little to no apologies to Cameron Mackintosh and the rest.)
“I dreamed a dream in time gone by,
When hope was high and life, worth living.
I dreamed that justice would never die,
I dreamed a judge would be unforgiving.
Then I was “young” and unafraid,
And dreams were made and used and wasted.
There was no ransom to be paid,
No song unsung, no wine, untasted.
But the Maga come at night,
With their voices soft as farting,
As they try to tear justice apart,
And they bring my land to shame.
………………
And still I dream he'll come to jail,
That we will live the years far far apart.
But there are dreams that cannot be,
And there are storms we’re still to weather!
I had a dream my life would be
So different from this hell I'm living,
So different now from what it seemed...
Now Drum has killed the dream I dreamed...”
Only more Catblogging can heal my pain.
--my heart is rent asunder.
“ Personally, I'd love to see Trump get community service. Wouldn't that be awesome?”
Trump serving the community? Serving the little people? The scum? Maybe serving meals at a food kitchen for immigrants? He would fight that more than jail. But I suppose there’s a first time for everything. Mr. Drum is forgiven for killing the dream I dreamed of jail. ….. But I still want more Catblogging.
It would give me great joy to see him forced to put on an orange jumpsuit and pick up trash by the side of the highway.
I would too, but I have to wonder what "force" would amount to in this context. Physically force? I don't see that happening. Solitary? That'd work.
This CONSTANT disbelief from every liberal is annoying.
It started last year when everyone said this case was a bad case that was risky if he'd won. After everyone finally realized that it was actually a serious case with an extremely high probability of conviction, it's changed to disbelief that he'll get any prison time.
Look, you're thinking about this the wrong way. Sentencing starts with what the prosecutors recommends. Merchan is unlikely to go below the range the prosecutors recommend, particularly given Trump's contemptuous actions throughout the case, attacking the jurors, the judge, his daughter, and the staff.
So what you want to know is, what will Alvin Bragg's office offer? Will they recommend probation? Will they offer concurrent sentencing?
Why do you think the last Carroll jury and the last Letitia James case resulted in judgements worth hundreds of millions of dollars?
Trump isn't just an asshole. He's a dangerous, contemptuous, bullshitting stochastic terrorist. And he won't change.
People like that don't end up with probation.
I’ve seen a lot of criminal court documents over the years. In most cases defendants who demanded jury trials rather than settlements got stricter sentences. In a case like this, in which the defendant defied the court at every opportunity I would think that with any ordinary defendant the conviction would result in a very harsh penalty. Since this is Trump, perhaps not. My own recommendation would be for him to receive 1 year in jail for each count, to be served concurrently. Seems more than fair to me.
Like you, I think it'll be 1 year, but I also think the range is 6-18 months.
I think probation is out of the question. He wanted to go to trial, defied the court, and lost; giving him probation would be no worse than he would have gotten had he pled guilty.
I always get annoyed when reporters insist on predicting things like this. Of course, Kevin is not a reporter; he's a blogger, so that's different. But it still annoys me because why do it at all? A much more important question is *should* trump go to prison? Obviously, straight news reporters cannot ask that question, but then they shouldn't opine about whether he *will* or not. And a pundit/blogger should prioritize the "should" question over the "will" question.
So now "should" trump go to prison? By conventional standards, the answer would be no because he's a "first-time offender," but in his case that's a double-over-with-laughter argument. And the other factor ought to be the awesomely powerful status he possessed, and still possesses. THAT alone should prompt the answer "Hell Yes" because that's what makes his crimes so much worse!
I would say that if Kevin’s correct about the potential sentence for Trump, the entire trial has been absolutely pointless and a colossal waste of time and money. And a mistake since it endangered the lives of the jurors, their families, the prosecutors and their families, and is quite likely to result in the death of a woman who bravely testified against Trump.
Clearly, if there’s no prison time, what would the penalty be? It will certainly be stayed until after November so as not to disrupt Trump’s campaigning so maybe a month of arrest at Mar-a-Logo or one of his golf courses?only prison is justice.
Community service five days a week at a homeless shelter through November 15, 2024, sentence not to be stayed by appeal.
When pundits, the media, and public figures make cynical statements such as "he won't be sent to prison", you're all shifting the (trite) Overton Window. It's not just the setting of expectations, it's also shifting the baseline that is demanded of what we consider to be justice and reinforcing it.
Don't do that.
Precisely.
The media ecosystem works wonders for most high profile people.
Community service? There is nothing he could provide that would serve the country. His timely demise would be nice!
I would be all for, provided that it is in the Bronx.
The judge can also take into account lack of remorse, number of counts, and the number of contempt violations, and his attacks on the jury, which continued even after his conviction. However, given the secret service issues, I wouldn't be surprised to see him confined to his mini-Versailles in NYC for a few months, with no Internet access and limited visitors.
A Great day for the good old U.S.of A. !!! LOCK HIM UP! Kitties know !
I think it will depend on what happens between now and the sentencing hearing.
If Trump continues his bromides against judge and jury, and it riles MAGA to abuse them, I think he very well may land in jail, at least for the duration of the GOP convention.
I presume he'll immediately appeal the conviction and whatever sentence the judge hands down. If he can stay out of jail pending the appeal, I don't know. Since he's not a "dangerous" criminal in the conventional sense, I suspect he can probably post a bond, surrender his passport, and avoid having to report to prison until his appeals are exhausted.
Why wouldn't the sentence given to Cohen be a guide for Trump?
my thoughts exactly since Cohen was acting on trump's direction
Because Cohen was convicted of entirely different federal crimes than the state crimes Trump has just been convicted of.
I would like the term "first time offender" retired with regard to Dumpster Fire.
If it's an 18 year old convicted for the first time, plausible that it's his first offense; just the public record for Dumpster makes clear that he has a list of offenses longer than his tie.
It's just his first criminal conviction.
As to prison time, watch his social media posts. He could talk himself into it.
The definition of "first offender" is "a person who has no previous criminal convictions". It contains no implication whatsoever that the offender has not committed prior crimes, just that he has no prior convictions.
Been pulling for Community Service since the beginning. 400 hours (100 for each year he could be imprisoned). No suspension during appeals. Orange suit. Sweeping up trash and dog shit every Saturday from 6am to 4pm. NYC's biggest new tourist attraction.
Cohen got 3 years for fewer offenses so how is Trump who directed the fraud getting less time or no time?
Careful what you wish for. Trump will offer to perform 4 years of community service .. sitting in the white house.
Trump is old and not violent (not with weapons anyway). Jail is for young violent people.
On the other hand, he loves to whip other people into violence, and that's a lot of crimes.
A month picking up trash in New York parks would be great. Let him see what it means to take care of a community.
There are lower-security facilities, and wings within larger prisons, for keeping older or infirm inmates away from the general population. They'll have appropriate accommodations waiting for him wherever he ends up.
Honestly rather than the public paying for his food and living space in jail (however cheap), I'd rather see him picking up trash. Would make for great photos, for one thing. Oh and he should have to apologize publicly to the Central Park 5.
Yes instead of jail I'd love to see him picking up trash on the LI Expressway
Remember folks: until and unless Trump *completes* whatever sentence is handed down, he is not an eligible voter in his home state of Florida.
Not if the community service is having president 34 re-washing dishes like Paul Ryan did for that photo op.
Can we take his name off the buildings now?
The more I think about this the more it irritates me. I would point out that Laurie Laughlin, Felicity Huffman and a number of other wealthy people were jailed for their roles in the college admissions scandal. I don’t see why that would result in jail time and Trump’s crimes wouldn’t. Martha Stewart wasn’t exactly public enemy #1 either.
Different jurisdictions have different sentencing rules. A sentence under California law, or federal law, simply has no relevance to sentencing under New York law.