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Trump’s economic goal: Do almost as well as Biden

From the New York Times:

Trump’s Treasury Pick Is Poised to Test ‘Three Arrows’ Economic Strategy

Mr. Trump’s Treasury secretary pick, Scott Bessent, has mapped out a three-pronged approach to jump-starting a U.S. economy that has been saddled with inflation and sluggish output. The concept, which he billed during the campaign as his 3-3-3 plan, entails increasing growth to 3 percent, cutting the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product and raising U.S. energy production by three million barrels of oil per day, or the equivalent in other fuels.

This isn't a strategy. They aren't even tactics. These are just goals, and not very impressive ones. Growth is already averaging 3.04% during Biden's term. Cutting the budget deficit would be easy if Republicans would stop blowing holes in it with tax cuts for the rich. And oil production has increased by 4 billion barrels per day since Biden took office, so 3 billion is hardly a stretch as long as anyone wants to buy the stuff.

In other words, just keep doing what Biden is doing and let the TCJA lapse. Easy peasy, as long as you don't muck things up with a trade war or a bank crash after you stop regulating them.

50 thoughts on “Trump’s economic goal: Do almost as well as Biden

  1. ColBatGuano

    You got to love the NY Times reporter just parroting the "to jump-starting a U.S. economy that has been saddled with inflation and sluggish output. " line without a shred of context.

    1. JohnH

      Kevin's post is great, but the headline didn't capture it for me. My objection would be not that 1it's too close to Biden policy, but that, while Japan specified action (such as fiscal and monetary policy), this just says everything will be great.

      Worse, it's just a cover for conservative hopes disguised as a wish list. Not Biden's moves toward energy independence with targeted fossil fuels and renewables, but just take the reins off anything. We're pro growth, even if the growth is in wealthy incomes.

      1. J. Frank Parnell

        Trump is a salesman, and a shyster conman salesman at that. His strategy? Tell people everything is shitty now but will be great when he is in control. Will he be held to his promises? I don’t see why. With the exception of some NY state judges, in his entire life no one had ever held him responsible.

        1. Solar

          Considering that those judges didn't force him to pay anything yet, and one even publicly acknowledged delaying sentencing for political considerations, I'd say they did not hold him accountable of anything.

    2. Jasper_in_Boston

      line without a shred of context.

      I think you mean "line without a shred of truth." Output isn't remotely "sluggish" —GDP has bubbling along at a nice 3% annual clip—that's one of the strongest rates in the rich world—buttressed by surging productivity.

      And "saddled" with inflation makes it sounds like we're dealing with massively surging prices. But 2.5%-3% is fine by any reasonable standard!

      I read somewhere that NYTimes.com has disabled its commenting software because of the anger they're seeing from readers. I can see why!

  2. Honeyboy Wilson

    Voters obviously don't care about any of those things. How is the Trump administration planning on getting the price of eggs and bacon back down to where they were during Trump's first presidency? Inquiring minds want to know.

    1. Vog46

      From USA Today
      " In a new interview with Time magazine for its Person of the Year edition – I’m assuming he was named Person of the Year for coming up with the word “groceries” – Trump was asked about his promise to bring down food prices.

      “Look, they got them up, I’d like to bring them down,” he said, blaming the Biden administration. “It's hard to bring things down once they're up. You know, it's very hard.”

      Yup
      Prepare MAGA for more admitting that he can't do what he promised...........

    1. Ogemaniac

      I’ve lived in a country without DST and loathed it. Long summer evenings? Gone. Any fall evening? Gone. Sunlight at 3:45am? Yeah, you can shove that right up…

        1. Jay Gibbo

          That study is done in Indiana, which is in the far western portion of the time zone. I wonder if the same results would pop up in the eastern portion of the time zones? Where I live in NY, if we went to permanent standard time, every single Little League would need to add lights, which an awfully high number of them do not have right now. If we went to permanent daylight time, not only would kids get on school buses in the dark in the winter, school would actually start in the dark.

          1. cld

            From the American Academy of Sleep Medicine,

            https://aasm.org/new-position-statement-supports-permanent-standard-time/

            . . .
            It is the position of the AASM that the United States should eliminate seasonal time changes in favor of permanent standard time, which aligns best with human circadian biology. According to the statement, evidence supports the distinct benefits of standard time for health and safety, while also underscoring the potential harms that result from seasonal time changes to and from daylight saving time.

            “By causing the human body clock to be misaligned with the natural environment, daylight saving time increases risks to our physical health, mental well-being, and public safety,” said lead author Dr. M. Adeel Rishi, who is chair of the AASM Public Safety Committee and a pulmonary, sleep medicine, and critical care specialist at Indiana University Health in Indianapolis. “Permanent standard time is the optimal choice for health and safety.”
            . . . .
            “Permanent standard time helps synchronize the body clock with the rising and setting of the sun,” said Dr. James A. Rowley, president of the AASM. “This natural synchrony is optimal for healthy sleep, and sleep is essential for health, mood, performance, and safety.”

            The position statement was developed by the AASM Public Safety Committee and based on a review of existing literature. It was approved by the AASM board of directors and endorsed by 20 medical, scientific, and advocacy organizations:

            American Academy of Cardiovascular Sleep Medicine
            American Academy of Dental Sleep Medicine
            American Academy of Otolaryngology-Head and Neck Surgery
            American Association of Sleep Technologists
            American College of Chest Physicians (CHEST)
            American College of Lifestyle Medicine
            American Society for Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery
            American Thoracic Society
            Dakota Sleep Society
            Michigan Academy of Sleep Medicine
            Montana Sleep Society
            National PTA
            National Safety Council
            National Sleep Foundation
            Sleep Research Society
            Society for Research on Biological Rhythms
            Society of Anesthesia and Sleep Medicine
            Society of Behavioral Sleep Medicine
            Southern Sleep Society
            World Sleep Society
            . . . .

        2. Ogemaniac

          I’ve as always been extremely skeptical of that study. There’s a mountain of research on the effects of shift work and jet lag on health, which are far more extreme than a one hour shift on a weekend, and those kinds of dramatic effects just aren’t there. If your cited study was correct international tourists would be dropping dead like flies.

          A one hour shift for most people barely falls outside the normal slop in their daily sleep routines, especially weekend vs weekday.

            1. iamr4man

              I do wonder where this is coming from. Clearly, Trump didn’t read some studies and make a determination. Maybe some wealthy donor?

      1. lawnorder

        Schedules can be adjusted. Outdoor jobs, like construction, often change their operating hours in summer so that they start not long after sunrise and finish for the day before the afternoon peak heat hits. I've known office jobs that have summer hours and winter hours, with earlier starting and quitting times in the summer. Little League games can start and end earlier. It doesn't require daylight savings time to make these adjustments.

        1. Ogemaniac

          So instead of shifting one time we shift millions?

          What happens when half your stuff shifts and the other half doesn’t?

          1. lawnorder

            As I said, such shifts happen now in some jobs. I don't know what happens as a result of those shifts, but people seem to manage.

        2. Jay Gibbo

          I'm specifically thinking of baseball because it would affect me and my kid - but either we add lights or we would have to shift the whole school schedule. Right now, if we stuck to moving our start times from 6PM, where we barely finish games in May before it gets dark (sometimes it does get called) to 5PM, there is no way middle school finishes soon enough to get too those games. So, it's either add lights or move the whole school schedule, everybody's work schedule, etc.

          1. lawnorder

            Where I live, school gets out at 3:00 pm plus or minus 15 minutes; that seems like lots of time to grab a bite to eat and get to a 5:00 pm baseball game.

  3. Justin

    Doesn’t matter.

    https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/manufacturing-is-a-war-now

    “By creating overcapacity, China is forcibly deindustrializing every single one of its geopolitical rivals. Yes, this reduces profit for Chinese companies, but profit is not the goal of war.

    America’s most economically important allies — Germany and Japan — are bearing the brunt of China’s most recent industrial assault. In the 2000s and 2010s, Germany’s manufacturing exports boomed, as they sold China high-tech machinery and components. China has now copied, stole, or reinvented much of Germany’s technology, and are now squeezing out the Germany suppliers.”

    It’ll be fine. Trump will fix it. I’m sure the analysis above is wrong so, nothing to worry about.

      1. Justin

        President Bill Clinton in 2000 pushed Congress to approve the U.S.-China trade agreement and China's accession to the WTO, saying that more trade with China would advance America's economic interests: "Economically, this agreement is the equivalent of a one-way street. It requires China to open its markets—with a fifth of the world’s population, potentially the biggest markets in the world—to both our products and services in unprecedented new ways," said Clinton. In a speech in 2000, Clinton reiterated his hopes: For the first time, our companies will be able to sell and distribute products in China made by workers here in America without being forced to relocate manufacturing to China, sell through the Chinese government, or transfer valuable technology—for the first time. We’ll be able to export products without exporting jobs. As a new member, China agreed to rapidly lower import tariffs and open its markets, although many trade officials doubted it would stand by those promises. China did cut tariffs after it joined the WTO, but it nonetheless continued to steal U.S. intellectual property (IP) and forced American companies to transfer technology to access the Chinese market, which were violations of WTO rules.

        Oops.

          1. Justin

            Let’s call the “oops” unintended consequences some of which are bad as explain in the article by Noah Smith (link above).

            Thanks.

          2. skeptonomist

            In what way has the US been vastly better, other than corporate profits?

            GDP growth has not increased.

            Real wages have not increased. Cheaper stuff made in China has probably kept inflation down, but loss of good manufacturing jobs has kept wages down.

            The promised benefits have just not materialized. This is not surprising because the idea that the US could sell stuff to China was just completely backwards.

            1. Solar

              "but loss of good manufacturing jobs has kept wages down."

              The loss of manufacturing jobs is not really China's fault. It's been primarily due to technology advances and automation, and the fact that manufacturing costs anywhere outside the most economically powerful nations is a lot cheaper (see Mexico), so companies moved whatever they could to other nations.

  4. Dana Decker

    "billed during the campaign as his 3-3-3 plan, entails increasing growth to 3 percent, cutting the budget deficit to 3 percent of gross domestic product and raising U.S. energy production by three million barrels of oil per day"

    Stop. Right. There.

    3-3-3 plan?

    What a cuck lame-o beta male thing to strive for. You know who was a real man with plans? That's right, Herman Cain. He was a man's man, an alpha male, and all that with his 9–9–9 Plan. Three times better. Three times more impactful. Three times more testosterone. Three times more Joe Rogan-ish.

    1. lawnorder

      Trump seems to be having a reality attack. These goals are actually plausible, unlike for instance his promise in 2016 to have the national debt fully paid off before the end of his term.

        1. lawnorder

          Plausible, as in they're achievable if Trump does nothing. If he follows his plans to impose tariffs in violation of US treaty obligations, he will likely trigger a world wide depression and those goals will become unachievable. Between that depression and the effects of planned Republican tax cuts, we can expect the deficit to EXPLODE.

  5. dilbert dogbert

    3-3-3 HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!!!!!
    Reduce the deficit!!!!!!!!!!!
    Anyone know if there is enough storage for the increase in production?????
    He left out a 4th!!! Tax Cut For Billionaires.

    1. mart

      We avoided peak oil with fracking; nothing in the tank (so to speak) when that is tapped out. Which is where I believe we are now headed.

  6. jeffreycmcmahon

    The absolute last thing they're going to do is let tax cuts lapse. I don't know if they'll even bother to give them the fig leaf of an expiration date, why bother.

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