I think we all figured from the start that handling the COVID-19 pandemic would be tough. Developing a vaccine would be tough. But once the virus was on the run and a vaccine was widely available? That's the easy part, right? Not so much, it turns out:
Will Europeans start to hit a ceiling when they reach a daily vaccination rate of one dose per hundred people? Or are Americans just unusually bullheaded? Stay tuned.
Elections have consequences, and this is yet another example of the tragic consequences of the 2016 presidential election.
It's heartbreaking to imagine how much less awful things would have been in a pandemic had Hillary Clinton been in the White House in 2020 or had the pandemic hit in 2021, with Joe Biden in the White House.
True, we might have been only as bad off as France.
@Rick_Jones
More likely, we would’ve ended up like Canada than France, given that Canada is the country most similar to us culturally, economically and geographically… and HRC would’ve been more like Trudeau than any EU leader.
excellent point. although given what the EU countries went through, it may have been better here but still pretty bad. i think the lunacy of the former pres affected things like global warming policy, health care etc, more than pandemic response. maybe?
Definitely better, but HRC as POTUS would've faced many of the same problems with right wing Americans that Gretchen Whitmer was dealing with in Michigan (or that Biden is dealing with now).
The optimal parallel universe US pandemic experience is Romney winning in 2012, and then winning reelection in 2016. His GOPness would have neutralized a lot (not all, but a lot) of the right wing craziness, but Mitt himself is a competent, technocratic manager.
Nah, it's not the reichwing craziness with which El Pepe Maximo must contend -- it's the summer curse.
-- Sam Stein, the POLITICO
All my wingnut relatives are vaccinated, while my one relative who isn't vaccinated is a liberal Democrat, because she somehow got the idea that because she once had hepatitis she'll have a violently negative reaction to the vaccine.
Nothing can talk her out of this.
Looking at the chart and eyeball the whole area under the curve thing (y'know, integrals = totals)... the area under the US curve up to the peak looks to be about the same as the area under a rough European average curve up to now... meaning that they'd be at about the same proportion of their population vaccinated now as we were when we were peaked. If that's true (and I'm sure there are sources out there that would say what % was vaccinated on X date, but I'm not going to look them up) - wouldn't be surprised if they've peaked now and will now start slowly declining.
Cmayo may be correct, but there is one way to tell, by looking at vaccine hesitancy. As an example, Toronto’s Globe and Mail had an article comparing vaccination status and vaccination hesitancy between the US and Canada. When the article was written, the % of Canadians vaccinated was about to surpass that of the USA, which it has now. It also had polling data in both nations of vaccine hesitancy and the USA was much, much higher than Canada where it is negligible. Here is the link: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/editorials/article-thanks-to-the-good-sense-of-canadians-were-about-to-out-vaccinate-the/
Comparing the two countries is also relevant in that Canada produces no covid vaccines, it has had to buy all of its supply, in contrast to the USA. Consequently, the number of doses available here in Canada was, and likely still is, less than what is available per capita in the US.
Canada took the UK route and postponed second shots so as to maximize the numbers with at least one shot. So I think they are still way behind on fully vaccinated folks.
Canada is 5% fully vaccinated, the U.S. is 40%. [OurWorldInData.Org]
It also appears delaying second shots increases the response for mrna vaccines as well.
Let’s go with Americans are bullheaded and stop caring about it. I’m fine. All my friends and family are fine. Let it go. Those getting seriously sick now deserve their fate. To heck with them.
👍👍
Thank you, RT!
I'm glad to know that none of your friends and family are immuno-compromised, or otherwise unable to take the vaccine for valid medical reasons.
We can't let it go if we want to protect those who can't take the vaccine, or for whom it is ineffective.
COVID is but one threat to those who are already ill. They will forever face these threats. It’s unfortunate but you can’t fix this problem by whining about the unvaccinated. I am vaccinated but since half this country is flipping nuts, I think I’ll just lay low. Good luck.
& now the Ron Paul Chapter of the Hell's Angels has checked in.
Always good to get your perspective too!
Let’s go with Americans are bullheaded and stop caring about it. I’m fine. All my friends and family are fine. Let it go.
No thanks. Vaccine refuseniks should be hassled, pressured, cajoled (and incentivized) to the greatest extent possible because a strong America is better than a weak America. What does it cost you, personally, a vaccinated person, if the government and private sector are aggressive on this score?
Just say no to nihilism.
How's that working out for you? It's not really. The bullheaded are called that for a reason. Have at it. Obsessing about the behavior of others is an unfortunate side effect of this pandemic. It is, perhaps, terminal.
And you are correct... it doesn't cost me anything because I am not obsessing about it. I don't care about the lotteries or the free stuff or the ads encouraging vaccination. Doesn't bother me at all. Sadly, there is one person in my life who I care about and isn't yet vaccinated. The excuses have changed over the last few months and on Sunday I heard yet another silly one. It is a waste of time for me to engage with them on this topic now so the friendship will no doubt suffer irreparable damage.
In these last years we have learned much about our so called fellow citizens. It turns out many of them are pretty awful people. There are 10s of millions of racists trumpists. There are all sorts of crazy people with guns. There are religious fanatics. And there are all kinds of just plain stupid.
I recognize that these folks are out of reach, but if you want to go on harassing them, be my guest.
To be fair, it appears natural immunity is as good as the non MRNA vaccines so all those republi-fuckers getting sick will add to the effective numbers
I get it and part of me wants to agree. And as a vaccinated person in a fully vaccinated family, living in a highly vaccinated community and working in an almost fully vaccinated environment, I agree that I'm fine.
But my kid will be on a transplant list before she's 25, so I know a lot about the transplant community. They are not fine. They need the rest of us to help keep them OK. They need us to do to coronavirus what our parents (and us, of you're old) did to smallpox and polio. If everyone who can be vaccinated is vaccinated, then the people who can't be (or, like transplant patients, those for whom vaccination does not result in an immune response) will be free to move around. If this thing persists at a decent level, they won't be OK. And if it is allowed to thrive and mutate in a significantly unvaccinated population, the rest of us will be fucked eventually.
Oh Kevin, always behind the times!
The correct Woke response to this is to blame whitey for keeping the vaccine out of the hands of PoC. Concentrate less on the whites who aren't vaccinated and more on the PoC who aren't -- making fun of the Trumpeters is fun, sure, but outrage always sells better in the end.
Here's something to get you started:
https://www.kff.org/coronavirus-covid-19/issue-brief/latest-data-on-covid-19-vaccinations-race-ethnicity/
Start with a quote like "Together, these data raise concerns about racial disparities in COVID-19 vaccinations" and run from there.
More generally, I think people are being unreasonable in how rapidly they expect vaccination to occur. It has ALWAYS been the case that many people are frightened of the new, and vaccinations have always taken some time to become a majority. Even something like the polio vaccine required a few years (not a few months) for widespread adoption. Or, more recently, consider something like HPV or Hepatitis vaccine, which are still in the minority, in the US (and I suspect so, even among the corona-virus-vaccine bemoaning classes).
People have all sorts of reasons for avoiding what's unfamiliar and something of a hassle. Before insisting that everyone who hasn't had a coronavirus is doing it for reason ask yourself whether *you* have had every vaccine that science has provided us. HPV (it's not just for teenage girls!) Hepatitis? Lyme disease? Tetanus booster?
Hepatitis ✔ Tetanus ✔ Flu ✔ COVID ✔ Shingles ✔ Lyme - don't live in an area where Lyme is endemic. And you?
The Risk/Reward ratio is different for various vaccines. And herd immunity is reached at different levels of vaccine adoption.
Here's a fun list of vaccines...
https://www.who.int/teams/immunization-vaccines-and-biologicals/diseases
https://www.cdc.gov/hpv/parents/vaccine.html says
"HPV vaccination is not recommended for everyone older than age 26 years. However, some adults age 27 through 45 years who were not already vaccinated may decide to get HPV vaccine after speaking with their doctor about their risk for new HPV infections and the possible benefits of vaccination. HPV vaccination in this age range provides less benefit, as more people have already been exposed to HPV."
The social nationalist response is to criticize the black man for his failures and demand more socialistic togetherness. If not, mandatory vaccines.
Sistah Souljah has entered the chat.
The public health people have been warning us since the start of the pandemic that this was going to be a problem.
Europe apparently has a long-standing issue with vaccine hesitancy, which probably explains their over-reaction (from a probabilistic risk-reward perspective) to the clotting issues with the AstraZeneca vaccine.
Thank god we didn't over-react to the clotting issues with the J&J vaccine.
We actually didn't over-react. We reacted exactly correctly. Pausing for a brief period to look at the situation, and then confidently resume, was the right reaction.
Yup.
We had vaccines that weren't inferior (mrnas) in ready supply. Europe had AZ and nothing else so thry had a full stop.
Lolz, not quite the full story. AZ was supposed to be Europe's vaccine. Other supply initially was irrelevant.
I think we just need to keep finding ways to make it easy to get vaccinated and keep creating money incentives like lotteries to get vaccinated.
Also keep requiring US citizens to take science classes in HS... LOL
The chart would be more interesting if daily doses were normalized by number of people who had been infected, age of population, and doses already administered.
Europe is older, so we might expect them to peak at a higher number of doses per 100 people. Norway had a lower rate of infection, so we might expect them to peak at a higher number of doses.
Reaching herd immunity in the USA without reaching herd immunity around the world isn't particularly useful. So it's not really a problem that the USA is consuming fewer vaccines while the rest of the world is still ramping up consumption.
"Reaching herd immunity in the USA without reaching herd immunity around the world isn't particularly useful."
The first useful statement about "herd immunity" I have seen in quite a while, showing an understanding of what constitutes "herd immunity". Thank you.
The rise and fall with a mid-April peak looks very much like a Bitcoin price chart. A lottery in crypto will be sure to solve the problem.
45% increase in Ohio since lottery introduction. My 21 year old cousin got a IN shot this week to enter. It's a pure bribe, don't underestimate its effect.
63% for 18+ destroys Drums analysis. By the end of the year it will probably be 75-80%, especially if low vax areas have clusterbombs this fall triggering a rise in vax.. Maybe the black man will take time from his daily killing rampage to get vaxxed.
Whites are nearing 75% 18+ and will likely be in the 85% range by fall.
This is GOOD NEWS for John Mc C--... HAWLEY-GABBARD 2024.
They have moved from mass vaccination sites to mobile units getting into neighborhoods, so that helps. But the easy to reach have been reached. College kids will get vaccinated when they need to get vaccinated--either to go to a concert or because it is required to go back to school. People who have to work two or more jobs may get one if it's convenient--or when they have to take their kid in for a shot. And with cases dropping, it's not a pressing issue.
Of course, states will have to want to have to have their people vaccinated. It doesn't take much to fan the flames of doubt...while those doing that get vaccinated.
On please. It's been easy to reach. If 65+ blacks can do 80+, so can under 65. They simply are resisting vaccines.......reasons. Woke style liberals are losing this one.
Joe Biden: "will you black guys please get vaccinated!!" .
"If 65+ (mostly retired) blacks can do 80+, so can under 65 (mostly working, often with two jobs)".
Do the words in the brackets clarify the flaw in your reasoning?
College kids will get vaccinated when they need to get vaccinated--either to go to a concert or because it is required to go back to school.
If state governments (and federal judges?) don't interfere with the efforts of civil society to require vaccination evidence, sure. That's a big "if." Indeed, it's already happening (Florida, Texas).
I think the US has gotten off to a sufficiently decent start on its vaccination drive that societal and economic forces could get us over the line, if we allow such forces to operate fully and freely. But, let's be blunt: the forces of political reaction have a strong incentive to aid the flat earthers in gumming up the works, because holding down vaccination levels in America will weaken the economy, and enhance GOP political prospects.
Won't work and has already failed. Waste of a post.
>>>Will Europeans start to hit a ceiling when they reach a daily vaccination rate of one dose per hundred people? Or are Americans just unusually bullheaded?<<<
All countries will see flagging daily jab numbers at some point.
I think there's plenty of vaccine hesitancy in other high income countries, too, but I doubt the anti-vax crowd elsewhere enjoys as much political backing as it does in the US. So, it's partly "bullheadedness" but it's partly America's sub-optimal polito-constitutional arrangements. Madisonianism is a bad fit for an age that requires plenty of technocratic, plain vanilla competence.
Dude, vaccine "hesitancy" in Europe is higher than the States. Educate yourself .
As I wrote in the comment you're (illogically) responding to, "there's plenty of vaccine hesitancy in other high income countries, too."
I strongly recommend utilizing reading comprehension, Midgard: it makes for less irrelevant replies.
Demographic data only available for 61% of the reported vaccinations:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographics-trends
The percentages presented are not as percent of population that has data, but uses total population General correction doesn't really apply, corrections could vary by demographic group...but here it goes, for first dose data:
White: 51.6%
Hawaiian/Islander: 52.3%
Native American: 68.2%
Asian: 53.9%
Black: 37.2%
Hispanic: 42.6%
Maybe county view can help:
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccinations-county-view
Funny, I don't see Shooter extolling the superlative performance of vaxxx efforts on the Rez.
I would suspect that "the Rez" still remembers the depopulation caused by the arrival of white man's diseases, especially smallpox. Given that history, if I was native I would be getting every vaccine available.
Indeed.
But I meant, they are outshowing Shooty's favored whites with college degrees, yet the Blog Drunk says nothing.
Bing drinking is hard on the facility of memory.
They once did a study of Climate Change Denialism by nation, and found that it was significantly higher in English speaking nations- because that is where Rupert Murdochs had propaganda outlets.
I expect the same sort of trend here....
Propaganda kills.
A cumulative vaccinations per capita chart might be more useful for this particular question.
You can get this at the Our World in Data Site.
Good point:
https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/coronavirus-data-explorer?zoomToSelection=true&time=2020-03-01..latest&pickerSort=asc&pickerMetric=location&Metric=Confirmed+cases&Interval=Cumulative&Relative+to+Population=true&Align+outbreaks=false&country=USA~GBR~CAN~DEU~ITA~European+Union~ISR~CHN~FRA
There are people who actually have good reasons for not getting the vaccine, and more who refuse for reasons other than sheer partisanship. There are also many who got a vaccine with lower efficacy and even those with two doses of mRNA vaccine are not fully immune. All these people are put at some risk by those who refuse to get vaccinated for no good reason.
The next time around vaccines should be ready much faster. The mRNA vaccines were apparently developed in a matter of days. The testing and production could be sped up greatly with a fairly small expenditure, so vaccination could be much more effective than this time, provided the anti-vax prejudices can be overcome.
Charting total doses administered per 100K will let you effectively, visually compare counties, states, and countries with their upper vaccination limits.
This chart you're showing has no effective way of communicating the upper limit and how far we've gotten. Without additional information, you don't know if we're hitting an upper limit of 60%, 70% or 80%.
I've known some people who had strong reactions to the vaccine, put them out of commission for a day. I'm debating whether I want to put myself through that.