As always, the BLS released figures for average earnings at the same time as the inflation figures. Here are average weekly earnings for all private employees:
Hourly earnings were up 5% for the month (on an annualized basis) but average hours worked were down a bit. The result is an increase in weekly earnings of about 2% after adjusting for inflation.
Average weekly earnings are down 5% since the start of 2021. They've made up a little less than 1% of that since June.
Kevin, you often say that you need to show the pre-Covid trend, but then sometimes you don't do that. Why? You are right to say that you need to!
In this case, it still tells a compelling story - weekly average earnings are now just a bit above where they were at the end of 2019, but the pre-Covid trend suggests they should have grown 2% by now - so we are behind! Your point is valid!
But when you cherry pick from beginning of 2021 it looks like you're trying to hide something. And you are - you're hiding the GIGANTIC increase in weekly earnings that occurred at the beginning of 2020.
FRED user, heal thyself.
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