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17 thoughts on “What will Kevin McCarthy do?

  1. Brett

    McCarthy is basically hoping he can repeat history again - pass a bill that appeases the GOP hardliners and avoids the need to get any Democratic votes in the House, then after some push-back do another bill that passes with some cuts because Senate Democrats are ultimately too timid and afraid of a shutdown to push it back again.

    Biden should put some more pressure here if the shutdown arrives, prioritize shutting down stuff that will aggravate GOP donors so they start pushing on GOP congressmen to make a better deal.

    1. aldoushickman

      Curtailing postal service and/or federal highway projects in Republican Congressional districts might also be something worth examining.

      Or go the other way and remove FAA/air traffic control support for private and charter airflights. Gotta save money somehow.

      1. Steve_OH

        It should be across the board: If Congressman A votes to cut discretionary spending by an average of X percent, then every Executive Branch department should reduce funding of discretionary projects in Congressman A's district by X percent, and redistribute the funds to equivalent projects in other districts.

  2. bbleh

    I'm betting on a shutdown, and the only question is, how long will it last?

    Not a sure thing: politicians AND media just LOVE them some drama, so they'll keep the scary music going right up 'til the end, but I don't think McQarthy has either the brains or the stones to manage a solution, either this week or in coming weeks. And presuming not, about the only solution I see is that Republicans fracture into several pieces, one of which lets the Senate take the lead and works with Dems to get something through the House. But when that will happen ...??

    1. kahner

      yeah, i think mccarthy doesn't have the guts to cross the nutjobs, so he'll do basically nothing and allow the shutdown to happen and continue until public pressure and then pressure from the rest of the caucus give him the ability to push something through and try to blame shift to others. which won't really work, but he's an idiot.

  3. SC-Dem

    Don't spending bills have to originate in the House? Then the Senate can modify the shit out of them and send them back. Isn't that why the Senate is sitting on its hands?

    1. kahner

      i don't think so. pretty sure both house and senate can write and pass their own spending bills then go through reconciliation. but since the house currently can't pass anything, and is the limiting factor, senate sees no reason to pass something till they see what the house can get through.

      1. SC-Dem

        On reflection, I think you're right. If a bill raises revenue it has to originate in the House. Spending bills can originate in either house.

    2. Altoid

      Revenue bills are the ones that have to originate in the House. I used to think that meant a lot too, but have been told that there are lots of ways around that requirement.

      If I have this right, the Senate has already passed a passel of spending bills and sent them over. They actually even managed to do it under regular order, committee markups and everything. They've done their part, it's all in the House's hands.

  4. Altoid

    Kinda think it depends on trump. If he still wants to force a gutting of the DOJ, his little corps of lickspittles will deny McCarthy the rules majority he needs to move bills to a vote every time-- unwritten convention is that those have to be strictly party-line. If Jeffries breaks precedent and helps the rule pass-- and it would be for a bill the Ds could never support, just an R messaging bill-- then trump would want McCarthy's head on a pike, probably, and his bum boys could finally follow through on the vacate threat. That would be a shit-show with not much prospect of an easy or obvious endpoint.

    OTOH, if trump decides he's made his point, the chaos caucus will extract more concessions and then let the rules pass and give McCarthy another day in the chair. But it would be on bills that won't get anywhere, because the senate seems very strongly ready to stand by the appropriations it's already passed. Individual obstruction is easier in the senate but the majorities have been big enough to override that.

    If McCarthy "stared down" the hard right-- *snort*-- it would be by weaseling his way around them the way he did last time and they're on the lookout for any signs of it happening again. So, door #2 seems like the good bet to me.

  5. Heysus

    I have suggested, in another place, that the salaries, benefits, and retirement of all present and past elected officials, reps, what ever, be cut permanently. For good measure, throw in the SCOTUS. Get ‘em all!

  6. D_Ohrk_E1

    The narrative of McCarthy being tough and heroic is being pushed by McCarthy.

    The narrative of McCarthy being a tool for the far-right is the reality. He kept making concessions to them to get votes for his speakership, and he's doing the same thing again.

    Problem is, the budget they pass isn't going to fly with the Senate, so, as I said before, expect a very record shutdown. 1 1/2 months?

  7. Pittsburgh Mike

    KMac is just a coward, but there's a non-zero chance that if he gets something passed with just R votes, the D's in the Senate will feel obliged to "compromise" to end the standoff.

    KMac isn't the only coward 🙁

  8. zaphod

    Yes, my faith and expectation that KMac shows any spine on this are zero. It's going to be a long shutdown, and the only way I see it ending is a discharge petition, which still depends on getting about 5 Republicans to sign it. From a Washington Post article:

    "Bringing a discharge petition to the floor is a lengthy process, but fortunately for the lawmakers discussing the strategy, there’s already one available. It’s the one Democrats moved earlier this year as a safety valve should Republicans fail to lift the debt limit.

    All House Democrats have already signed it. Just five Republicans are needed to sign on to force it to the floor — if no Democrats remove their names.

    Unfortunately for advocates of the strategy, a discharge petition is complicated procedurally. Just two have become law. And there’s no way to bring a discharge petition to the floor before Oct. 1.

    Once a discharge petition has 218 signatures, House rules dictate that the lawmakers who signed it must wait seven legislative days before one of them can move forward.
    Then the lawmaker can call up the discharge motion “at a time or place, designated by the Speaker, in the legislative schedule within two legislative days after the day on which a Member whose signature appears thereon announces to the House an intention to offer the motion.”

    1. Altoid

      Imagine what it's like to be one of those few in the R caucus who actually might be willing to sign a discharge and do something decent for the country. Everybody up there has to know who they'd be, which means their every move is being scrutinized now, and the corps of flying monkeys is already mobilized to doxx and and attack in all kinds of ways. Having to wait 9 more legislative days after signing can only magnify the strain.

      Signing would be like walking the plank with your entire family in tow.

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