Democrats seemed to be doing well this summer as their approval level surged following the Dobbs decision. But now Republicans are surging back. This is partly because the out party always does well in midterm elections, but David Brooks thinks there's more to it:
The Trumpified G.O.P. deserves to be a marginalized and disgraced force in American life. But I’ve been watching the campaign speeches by people like Kari Lake, the Republican candidate for governor in Arizona. G.O.P. candidates are telling a very clear class/culture/status war narrative in which common-sense Americans are being assaulted by elite progressives who let the homeless take over the streets, teach sex ed to 5-year-olds, manufacture fake news, run woke corporations, open the border and refuse to do anything about fentanyl deaths and the sorts of things that affect regular people.
Sure, I guess. But this is the farthest thing imaginable from something new. The details change from election to election, but this narrative began with Richard Nixon and became fully weaponized by Newt Gingrich and Fox News in the 1990s. It's been part of the core Republican message for 50 years, and it's been their nearly exclusive message for the past 20.
The most discouraging part of this is not that Republicans do it. What do you expect an opposition party to do? The discouraging part is that after 50 years Democrats still have no idea how to fight it.
It's not that we lose every culture war battle. In fact, we win quite a few. But when Republicans sense weakness, they circle the wagons and beat the class war drums loudly and in unison. That's what we don't know how to fight.
Practically all the evidence suggests the United States is fundamentally a strong country right now. Probably the strongest in the world, and with the brightest future. It's extraordinary to think of just how good a place it could be if only we could figure out a way to overcome the debilitating fear that so many people still have of progress and change.
I saw this today on Twitter from Nevada political reporter Jon Ralston:
This is a large batch of mail ballots and Dems are crushing Repubs in Clark County almost 2 to 1. Very similar to what happened in 2020: Early voting has slight edge to GOP and then Dems obliterate the lead.
Now this is just a small story but I find it amazing that when it has come down to actual votes, especially since Dobbs, Democrats have done very well. Why that's not being taken into account I don't know but for those wearing sackcloth and ashes right now, consider this point: Could it be many polls, because they missed a lot of Republican voters in 2020 are over compensating in 2022? Hmmm?
That's why polls should eschew likely voter screens. You don't know what the make up of the electorate is going to be and with mail voting it makes it even more moot. Just poll registered voters and then you'll know who showed up and who didn't. What's the point of trying to make "educated guesses" of going to vote that just blow up in your face when you're wrong?
Consider this point too, high inflation didn't start this month. Why are the polls still so close, in spite of inflation or the pandemic or the War in Ukraine? Wouldn't a "normal" Republican Party be killing things right now and the polls wouldn't be that close?
I think that's your answer.