Over at New York, Eric Levitz has a lengthy piece about the Democratic Party's problem with Hispanic voters. In 2020, after four years of Donald Trump building a wall and shrieking nonstop about border security, the Democratic share of the Hispanic vote went down.
There are a number of theories about why this happened, and Levitz goes through them ably. But I have my own theory, based on this:
Roughly speaking, I think Trump suckered Democrats into becoming extremists on border policy. It's fine for Democrats to oppose the wall—most Hispanics oppose it too—but progressives, goaded by Trump, have staked out a position that's often only a finger's width away from not having any border security at all. And that's something that most Hispanics don't support.
To put it simply, Hispanics are like the rest of us: They care about other people, but they care about themselves more. When it comes to immigrants who are already in the country, legally or not, they're in favor of giving them a road to citizenship. But they're not especially keen on allowing lots of new immigrants in who will compete with them for jobs and housing. Trump may be a buffoon, but at least some Hispanics have decided that they can put up with that if the alternative is risking a big increase in the rate of illegal immigration.
Added to that, of course, is the well-known fact that many Hispanics are fundamentally conservative to begin with: family oriented, religious, against abortion, in favor of low taxes, opposed to defunding the police, etc. It's been common knowledge forever that Republicans could win a big share of the Hispanic vote if they'd just moderate their base, but it turns out there's another way: Get the Democrats to radicalize their base instead. It seems to have worked.
This is true. Trump's strategy could have worked if Covid hadn't hit and negated all of Trump's outreach to blacks. Black women won the elections for Obama in 2008/2012. Black men brought it home for Biden by not abandoning him.
Lol, black men went with Trump the most since Reagan
Lol, without context that sounds like a huge increase, but in context, Republican candidates since Reagan have always obtained a share of the black men vote in the low to mid teens, which Trump improved marginally to 19%. Yes, he did slightly better than previous candidates, but his share of that vote was still pretty low compared to what his opponent got.
No doubt he did better than Romney because he tried. I'm just saying that I think he could have done better than what he did do.
It's not like Trump won Hispanics or anything, but he did better than expected and could have done better than expected with black men such that Kevin would have included that demographic in a post.
lol, Romney??? He did better than Bush and he did try. You just don't get it.
So, Hispanics already here, with official documents or not, have the same view of their brethren on the other side of La Frontera as Clarence Thomas has of current day affirmative action recipients.
That's good to know that the 28% of Hispanics who voted El Jefe are Basura.
"That's good to know that the 28% of Hispanics who voted El Jefe are Basura."
They snap to attention to authority, have a distinct streak of male chauvinism and lack critical thinking - just like ~ 45% of the rest of us.
I don’t think that’s an entirely fair criticism. As Kevin points out most Hispanics care either newly arrived (one to two generations) from culturally conservative societies or are raised by parents who are themselves second or third generation Americans. It’s worth remembering that for most of my lifetime immigration from Mexico, China, and Indochina was expected to give the Republicans an enduring majority in California and perhaps nationally.
The other point concerns Mexican immigrants and Chicanos. For generations, it was prohibitively expensive and difficult to migrate here by ships or planes and Mexico’s southern border was inhospitable and impassable because Mexican labour working in the USA and remittances were (and still are) extremely important to the Mexican economy. Most Mexicans are no different from most anglos in that they don’t want to see people put in concentration camps or children abused and living in cages but neither are they in favor of opening up the border.
"and Mexico’s southern border was inhospitable and impassable"
This is actually the opposite of reality. Under Mexico's constitution free transit through Mexico is a right, therefore enforcement at the southern border was usually pretty lax, as was enforcement of immigration violations for those already within Mexico. It is only in recent years (particularly under AMLO as President), that Mexico has started cracking down on immigrants as a way to please Trump during his presidency.
Glad to see AMLO got over his butthurt at not sharing North American popular power with El Santo Socialista de Monteverde & still perfected his Spin Doctors tribute piece "Two Populists" with El Jefe Maximo de Maralago.
I would agree with this post if Kevin listed the prominent left wingers who went too extreme on border security!
I believe the right wing media blew up every little left wing tweet that seemed crazy.
Most of what I saw was people being angry about the treatment of children on the border. That was not extreme to care about that.
They aren't left wingers. It's time to end that term.
I would disagree slightly. They aren't Democrats, but they are leftists.
The few folk I know who actively want open borders ARE left wingers - FAR left wingers. Most of them are as anti-Democrat as they are anti-Republican, claim there's no difference, are Green or Socialist party, and are part of the extreme illiberal left. (I know some odd folks thru the SF area art community.)
That type definitely aren't part of the Democratic mainstream, nor do they have influence within the party.
lol, that isn't left wing dude. You need to get back reading some 18th/19th century works again. These guys are nothing more than reform liberals, nothing more or less.
You don't have to start drinking when the Sun is over the yardarm every day, Shootie. And BTW -- here's a pro tip: nobody here thinks your much of a reader.
keep slobbering scent. you don't get it and it shows.
It wasn't just a few woke activists on Twitter. During the Democractic primary, Julian Castro, Elizabeth Warren (iirc), and several others promised to decriminalize border crossings. For all practical purposes, that means an open border and over at Kevin's old place I pointed out a number of times, it was political suicide, particularly with Latino voters for precisely the reasons Kevin gives.
Another factor is that a lot of Hispanic workers in places like NM, TX and OK have moved from working in fruit fields to working in oil fields and other well-paying energy jobs. The Trump campaign did a good job at reaching out to them promising to protect their jobs.
Most 2020 Democratic candidates promised to decriminalize improper entry (the term used in the US Code); Biden and Bennett did not. Several clarified that improper entry would remain a civil offense, which can still bring fines and/or jail time (as can contempt of court, for example). Pretty good article here: https://www.wtnh.com/news/ap-explains-the-law-criminalizing-improper-border-crossings/
Extermism in the defense of (the right kind, you know) liberty is no vice!
Not liking the Democratic Party’s immigration policy and thus voting for a white supremacist. Makes sense...not!
Besides most people not knowing much about politics, history is also a challenge:
“The Mexican Repatriation was a mass deportation of Mexicans and Mexican-Americans from the United States between 1929 and 1936. Estimates of how many were repatriated range from 400,000 to 2,000,000. An estimated sixty percent of those deported were birthright citizens of the United States.Because the forced movement was based on ethnicity, and frequently ignored citizenship, some scholars argue the process meets modern legal definitions of ethnic cleansing.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_Repatriation
Trump is white???? Yeah, Gaetz and Greenberg are white as well. Lolz. Zionism fool.
If the recent changes turn out to be a trend, then perhaps its simply that the "hispanic" voters are reverting more to a "white" mean...i.e., becoming more like white Americans. Meaning that regarding them as a monolithic block is unwarranted.
I do think that some Hispanics will become "honorary whites" much as Italian Americans and other "ethnics" became "white" in the racists minds about the same time there was the massive resistance to civil rights for African Americans.
Now time will tell if it's only the European looking Hispanics or darker mixed race Hispanics too.
As is common, Kevin talks about why voters feel (and vote) the way they do, and commenters chime in to explain how wrong the voters are. Kevin's approach is good for winning elections, the commenters' approach is good if you aspire to sit alone at the computer being smarter than everyone else forever.
The problem is that Kevin assumes that if Democrats change their views then Fox News will ratchet down the right-wing outrage machine.
Democrats don’t favor open borders. Democrats are not Marxist. They don’t hate America. They’re not pawns of the Chinese Communist Party. They don’t want to destroy the nuclear family. They don’t want men wearing dresses following girls into restrooms. And yet those are the lies Murdoch feeds right-wing America every day. Potato Head. Dr. Seuss. Trans athletes. Trying to trim your sails to forestall the insane ravings of the right wing is literally impossible.
Biden is doing just fine. Distributing vaccines. Opening schools. Providing monetary relief. Building infrastructure. Creating family-wage jobs. Democrats can run on a record of accomplishment. We’ll never win trying to disprove the mendacious ravings of the lunatic right wing.
poppycock. Democratic candidates need to freely run on anti-immigration where the decisive voters make a large dent in Democratic victories.
Meanwhile look at this shit:
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/apr/07/jordan-peterson-shocked-by-captain-america-villain-espousing-10-rules-for-life
Are you willing to claim that Ta-Nehisi Coates is not a representative of something related to the Left and to Democrats?
And for those who read the article and say "right on", that's precisely the point. You have your heads so far up your asses you can't even see what's wrong with parodying a set of ideas, basic agreements on the nature of society and humanity, that are accepted by more than 50% of Americans (and a lot more than 50% of most of the world).
Here's the thing.
What do you hear when someone Marxist? Do you hear "a fair agreement between workers and owners"? Or do you hear a set of religious ideas that proceed from a set of axioms (everything Marx and Lenin ever said is absolutely correct) to ever more lunatic consequences of those ideas, ending up with things like Lysenkoism?
It's the same way with the Democrats/Woke/Feminism/anti-racism. You might think these are words attached to a few ideas no-one can quibble with like "equal pay for women".
But they aren't JUST those ideas; starting with those ideas as axioms (not as something like "guides to desirable behavior and policy ") we likewise see spun out ever more lunatic consequences of these ideas, for example the Marija Gimbutas stuff. And because these ideas and their consequences are treated as religion (all this is playing out exactly the same as marxism) those espousing the religion feel they are justified in anything that furthers the religion. Lying about their opponents, refusing to allow them a voice, refusing to consider their ideas, all par for the course.
There are reasonable conservatives and Republicans out there. And the reason they are conservatives and Republicans, not Democrats, is because of all this lunatic extra baggage, the insistence not just on reasonable behavior towards certain groups but the grand theory that these groups are all identical in certain ways (except when they aren't in other certain ways). The insistence that gender is 0% set at birth, while sexuality is 100% set at birth, and to even suggest anything otherwise is a hate crime.
THAT is the attitude that has turned so many Hispanics (and many African Americans will join them, likewise Asians) away from the Democrats.
Fix that! Don't do exactly what I said you're already doing, of parodying every conservative, and refusing to even engage with their ideas and suggestions.
Lenin was Russian and represented the Russian/Asiatic alliance which goes on to this day.
Marx was a jewish historian. Socialism was around 100 years before he even hit the scene, in all its forms. Marx also opposed homosexuality and gender 'assignment' issues as "bourgeois decadence.........which he took from earlier socialists. The problem with modern dialectics, its all dialectics. Marx used the same thing to push his marketing platform. Sorta like how William James is the father of psychology, but its always 'Freud'. Marketing is a hell of a tool.
and yes, Coates should be fired. No, that is not "left", its the liberal creed all the way. Under a real left wing workers group. people like Coates should be arrested and sent to concentration camps with Evangelical Christians. Kill em All.
Well, that's certainly an opinion.
Not especially relevant to the point I was trying to make (which was "understand when your thinking has become a religion" not
"demonstrate how your thinking has become a religion", but your enthusiasm for killing other people is noted.
On the "understand when your thinking has become a religion" front, let me point out, without comment, how the second phase of any religion, once the arguments with the purported enemy have run out of steam, is to fracture into splinter parties that all hate each other much more than they hate the purported enemy (the "Judean Popular People's Front" effect).
You only engage in the three-minute hate against Eastasia once a day, but you can fill the rest of that day quite comfortably hating the guy who agrees with you on every detail EXCEPT whether Jesus was fully divine vs only partially divine.
The US (non-, yes I read your post)left has already started down that path and I expect it to accelerate over the next decade. It would be amusing as heck, except that: when elephants dance, the ants get stomped.
Your problem is not understanding left/right nonsense is a dialectical trap. Traditional left is generally not what contards think.
“
There are reasonable conservatives and Republicans out there. And the reason they are conservatives and Republicans, not Democrats, is because of all this lunatic extra baggage, ....”
So, Dems must deal with shutting out their “lunatic fringe “ while it’s ok for Republicans to embrace and encourage theirs. Mr. Corn over at Ma Jones has an article tearing up John boehner for criticizing the crazies in the gop now after years of encouraging those crazies to help him gain power in the first place. ( can’t wait for Paul Ryan’s book! Eeeeeee!) The Corn article is pretty much a screed, but he’s right. Im sure “reasonable “ Republicans have no interest in joining with any Dems on anything (see Obama, Barack). The “reasonable” Republicans have their own mess, which *they* created, to clean up first.
Do you realize how childish that sounds?
"Why can't I have candy for breakfast? Kenny's mom allows him to have candy? It's so unfair!'
I am simply pointing out to you the consequences for the Democrats of not calling out this behavior more aggressively. Do what you want with that information.
My personal life creed is that I'm not going to be part of this BS because I care about truth more than I care about "winning" whatever that means. You can make your own decision about whether you care most about truth, winning, being part of the tribe, virtue signalling, or whatever else.
True that!
Speaking of trans athletics, I hear Caitlyn Jenner will be running as a Republican in the California gubernatorial recall election.
It's worth noting that it in woke institutions, it was not allowed to respond to "Black Lives Matter" by saying "All Lives Matter". It was taken as almost open support for white supremacy. But saying all lives matter brings in other groups besides white people.
If you're Hispanic, and a political party says that you are only allowed to say "Black Lives Matter", no broadening permitted or you're a racist, does that feel particularly welcoming?
Try this as a thought experiment: you’ve just been diagnosed with terminal cancer, and you begin telling folks you know that you’re going to die.
Instead of sympathy and an offer of help, people reply, “Well, we’re all going to die.”
Which is true. We’re all going to die, so why should you expect special treatment?
Why withhold sympathy for anyone with terminal cancer?
It's this simple. When when you see a campaign against Breast Cancer, or Prostate Cancer, or whatever Cancer, do you go out and tell people they shouldn't make campaigns for specific types of cancer (since all are bad)? People don't go out and say "All Cancers matter", because people realize that by supporting a campaign against a specific type of it, you aren't saying the others aren't important or aren't accounted for.
"you aren't saying the others aren't important or aren't accounted for"
Aren't you?
So you wouldn't be upset if I attend the BLM rally with my sign that said "White Lives Matter" or "Blue Lives Matter"? Aren't I proclaiming a subset of the general point that everyone agrees with, that All Lives Matter?
People read what they want to read into other people's behavior. Sometimes the read is accurate, frequently it isn't, but always the reader is absolutely certain it's correct -- so certain that they have no need to actually confirm it in any way.
And actually, yeah, I don't support pretty much any politicized cancer drive. Why? Well the actual reasons are essentially these:
http://www.arthurhaines.com/blog/2014/6/11/why-i-dont-support-cancer-charities
And politicizing cancers absolutely does not improve overall welfare:
https://www.cancerhealth.com/article/cancers-better-funded-others
But plenty of people are willing to read into my lack of support anything from "Hates Women" to "Selfish Jerk" to "woo woo idiot who doesn't understand modern medicine".
Like I said, the reader reads into others' actions whatever they want to read. If the reader is on a quest to find fault with the rest of the world, that reader will easily succeed.
Nah. Some rallies included “Brown Lives Matter” and, recently for obvious reasons, “Asian Lives Matter” with no criticism from blacks or liberals.
I'd like to toss in a confounding factor - the Republican party's increasing reliance on Russian memes for anti-Democratic party propaganda.
Within the US, the immigration battle has primarily been about what to do with people that are already here, with a secondary battlefront about how many to admit legally and under what conditions. Some limits on immigration and improving border security have always had strong bipartisan support, and the primary support for open borders has been from the non-Democrat far left.
But in Europe, the Schengen Project and the associated Open Borders within the Schengen members of the EU have been hugely controversial. The Russians have been feeding a ton of anti-Open Border propaganda into right-wing projects in France, Germany, Hungary, etc. And like most of us, they'd rather re-use existing work than start from scratch.
So the right-wing meme that the left wants open borders with no security is only slightly native, and is being heavily supported from the Russian part of the current infowar that's been going on for the last few years. And generally, the Russians won the last 4 years of that infowar, because the last President was on their side and not only backed them but amplified all of their messages to the level of unavoidability.
Then turn the tables and start attacking them. What will the lil Russians do then??? Blame the rich and anti-American Christian zionism.
Trumps immigration policy was about flooding the U.S. with illegal immigrants. Ignore, don't capture and process, which gave them time to work with business associations and evangelical Christians time to get them in.
A very sly policy Democrats fell over like slobs for. I would threaten to euthanize them, to only renege, then say the rich and Zionist Christians will take the executions instead. They will be deported. You hedge fund manager will die.
"Why Did Hispanics Abandon the Democratic Party in 2020?"
Was this headline written by a Fox News intern? Because by it you'd imagine that Hispanics abandoned the Democrats in droves to vote for Trump, when in reality, the drop in support for Biden compared to Clinton in 2016 was just 1%. Where Trump improved was in getting a bigger share of the non-voters in 2016, but even with this extra support, the share he got is still in line with the typical share Republicans get in Presidential elections, which is also true for Biden and the share he got.
Here is the share of the Hispanic vote since the 1980 Reagan victory:
D R
2020 65% 32%
2016 66% 28%
2012 71% 27%
2008 67% 31%
2004 53% 44%
2000 62% 35%
1996 73% 21%
1992 61% 25%
1988 70% 30%
1984 66% 34%
1980 56% 37%
Avg 65% 31%
Biden did exactly the average Democratic candidates have done for the past 40 years, while Trump did a single point better than the average for Republican candidates in the same time span.
Where is this abandonment you speak of Kevin?
Yup. The entire premise is wrong. Instead people should be asking why Hispanics abandoned Republicans from 2004 and why R's never managed to get them back.
It was expected that Trump's racist anti-immigrant rhetoric would cause a reaction leading to a higher percentage of Hispanics voting Democrat. That this didn't happen is what has to be explained.
+1 👍
Thanks. I was going to post something similar. Kevin's entire premise is based on an extremely minor shift (if any) in Latino voting trends. What shifts did occur seem to have been concentrated in places like Florida and South Texas. I've read similar articles that sought to place the problem on some Latino's believing that Democrats were socialists and they didn't like the Chavez's of the world. If true, this is obviously a messaging problem and not reflective of the actual Democratic party. Even in Kevin's craft it is apparent that providing a pathway to citizenship is extremely popular among Latino's. This is Biden and the Democratic parties position and clearly isn't the Republican position. Better messaging will erase what little shift there was.
As a Hispanic I am against putting kids in cages but people crossing the border are still breaking the law and I do not want to reward that.
A majority of them are actually following the law. The recent increases seen are people requesting asylum, most of which are detained at the border (usually at the actual border crossing) after they present themselves to authorities. As the law dictates they need to be physically present in order for them to do that.
These aren't people trying to sneak in undetected and then trying to remain in the shadows for as long as they can.
Exactly. And Biden in processing their cases more fairly than Trump and deporting non-asylum seekers. I'm not criticizing Biden for what he's doing. I don't think he's doing a great job on immigration but it's a tough problem and I don't think anyone could do much better right now.
If you're for law and order you're not voting for Trump. So no.
How soon we forget Hunter Biden's crack information insecurity.
Hunter Biden is not running for office.
The entire premise is wrong. Hispanics didn't abandon Democrats. 2 out 3 voted for Democrats which is right in the long term average.
There was a very minor movement of Hispanics towards Trump compared to 2016, but it was so minor as to simple statiscal variable rather than a profound shift. Just like the small percentage of white men who moved towards Biden compared to 2016.
And if one wants to explain why this small shift occured, it's pretty simple. The Republican party as a whole moved towards Trump compared to 2016. 90% of Republicans supported Trump in 2016 and 96% in 2020. This consolidation of R support pretty much explains the small shift in Hispanic Rs who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but did in 2020.
That's it.
This.
MMMMM??? Maybe the blacks and browns share the same Crab Pot???
I don’t believe the Democratic Party has shifted its views in immigration whatsoever. Maybe some individuals have voiced a more liberal approach and perhaps this may created a perception but overall the party’s position has been the same for twenty years: legalize dreamers now, create a path to others, control the border and implement e-verify. I was told the shift in Florida was due to low information voters who kept hearing the word “socialism” in the radio. California and Arizona did not see any marked shifts including in the border. The real shift occurred in the Texas border. Border control could well be a reason including drug trafficking. This is an area that requires further study.
Also many folks along the border are employed by ICE.
"Roughly speaking, I think Trump suckered Democrats into becoming extremists on border policy. "
I wholly reject your premise. It's not about liberals making Democrats look too far-left on the issue of immigration. It's about:
1) Failing to shift the Overton Window; Trump's rhetoric held the window right of center.
2) GOP promises to Democrats that were reneged then lied about, making Democrats appear to be the same as Republicans on the issue.
3) The enculturation of Hispanics, over generations, making them less politically distinguishable than the general population on issues over immigration. This then feeds into 1) and 2).
I can't deliver data to show the first two (do I need to point to behavioral science to show how this works?), but I can show you Pew's own polling data to illustrate the third.
On the question of, "Taking in civilian refugees from countries where people are trying to escape violence and war":
2nd generation Hispanics in favor = 81%
3rd generation Hispanics in favor = 76%
General population = 72%
On the question of, "Increasing deportations of immigrants currently in the country illegally"
2nd generation Hispanics in favor = 43%
3rd generation Hispanics in favor = 54%
General population = 54%
On the question of, "Establishing a way for most immigrants currently in the country illegally to stay here legally"
2nd generation Hispanics in favor = 85%
3rd generation Hispanics in favor = 75%
General population = 67%
On the question of, "Increasing security along the U.S.-Mexico border to reduce illegal crossings":
2nd generation Hispanics in favor = 61%
3rd generation Hispanics in favor = 72%
General population = 68%
Extremist? Who?
Since when did actual policy positions or statements matter to public opinion in a media that is mostly stenographic towards Republican statements?
Frankly I think "Hispanics" are what Kurt Vonnegut called a "granfalloon" or a "false karass". They aren't really that much like each other. Carribean Spanish-speakers, primarily Cubans, are really, really averse to "socialism", and that's what pushed them to Trump, for whatever reason. Republicans were successful as painting Biden as a 'socialist', along with many members of Congress.
Texas (and South Central) Mexican Americans were mixed, some broke pretty hard against Trump, but others have adopted the attitudes of their neighbors. Maybe Kevin's explanation works here.
Meanwhile in California, and growingly in Arizona, Mexican-Americans here break pretty hard for Democrats as they've already seen this junk in state politics for maybe the last 20 years.
There may be more groups that work differently still. Those are just the ones I know. It's dumb of us white people to think they are all alike and have the same explanation.
Pete Wilson, Joe Brewer, Joe Arpaio, & Kelli Ward are the reason Arizona went blue in 2020.
*Jan Brewer
Trump doesn't have attitude, only grift.
It's also likely that many Hispanics, having cynically observed all century that neither party is capable of and/or willing to achieve significant immigration law reform, take it for granted that nothing is going to change and base their voting decisions on other considerations.
In similar fashion, while I regard climate change as the most important challenge facing the human race, I don't believe either of Australia's major parties will do anything useful in response. So I ignore their blathering about the issue and consider less important factors in casting my vote.
Uh... didn't labor pass a carbon tax that caused the citenzenry to vote Libs who repealed it?
Can't blame the party for that. That's squarely on the people.
Lot of wild lies about liberals on here today. Let’s just say mr. drum has it pretty much right, in my view. Just as log cabin Republicans back a party that thinks gays shouldn’t be allowed to exist, because they agree on other issues, many Hispanics will back a party that promotes policies that treat all Hispanics as illegal aliens, because they agree on other issues. It happens.
Lol, gays will always exist and survival mode will inflate it
"but progressives, goaded by Trump, have staked out a position that's often only a finger's width away from not having any border security at all."
Love ya, Kevin, but this is just bullshit. There are no progressives who advocate for no border security or anything remotely like it.
do calls to abolish ice ring a bell?
One word: Catholicism. It's got nothing to do with immigration policy.
Good point.
Easy to imagine that in 2016 Hispanics swung against Trump because the way he talked (build the wall!), he sounded like he was going to round them all up and push them into the ocean (at best). But, as in so many things, Trump turned out to be a big talker (he didn't build the wall!) with no follow through. He mostly cut taxes and watched the stock market go up, and if all you cared about in politics was having a job and making money, you might think Trump was your guy. So, hardly surprising if Hispanics swung back Republican in 2020. I don't think you can draw any conclusions until you see how Hispanics feel about the Biden boom. They may love it. Suck on that Republicans.
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