In the New York Times, Chris Miller says there's a reason that Vladimir Putin keeps winning wars:
For the past decade, Americans have come to believe that Russia’s strength lies in hybrid tactics — cyberwarfare, misinformation campaigns, covert operations — and its ability to meddle in other countries’ domestic politics. Yet as we have searched for Russian phantoms behind every misinformed Facebook post, Russia has replaced the poorly equipped army it inherited from the Soviet Union with a modern fighting force, featuring everything from new missiles to advanced electronic warfare systems. Today the threat to Europe’s security is not hybrid warfare but hard power, visible in the cruise missiles that have struck across Ukraine.
In other words, Russia has a kick-ass military. That's why they keep winning.
IANARE, but doesn't this miss a tiny little something? Namely that until now Putin has fought only tiny little wars. Of course he's won in South Ossetia and Crimea and—if you stretch the definition of "win" considerably—Syria. This is like congratulating the United States for winning in Grenada and Kosovo. Big deal.
Having extremely limited and specific objectives is an excellent military strategy, and that's why Putin has won so many wars. But it says nothing about how good Russia's military is when it decides to fight a big war with unclear objectives. They are now trying to do approximately what we tried to do in Iraq, and only time will tell if they succeed.
But they might. It's likely that the Russian war in Ukraine will eventually turn into a counterinsurgency, and my read of history suggests that the only way for a counterinsurgency to succeed is to embrace ruthless brutality. It's to America's credit that we were never willing to go completely down that path in Iraq, but it's quite possible that Putin is. If he does, he will be more of a pariah than ever but he might just win. Ask the Chechnyans.
A few days ago, I was of the belief that with support, this war could turn into a quagmire for Russia and that would help oust Putin. Now, I think it's more likely than not that Ukraine will end up with a de facto win and Putin will be deposed all the same but much sooner.
Russia's losing a significant amount of military weaponry and thousands of their soldiers have either been killed or surrendered. The war appears to be so far behind schedule that Putin's sent in 2/3rds of the combat-ready troops that had been parked all along Ukraine's borders, into the battlefield.
Their logistics are failing them and their equipment has become fixed targets for those Turkish Tb2 drones.
The western nations have seen Ukraine beating back Russian forces. They no longer have reservations of their lethal weapons falling into the hands of Russians. Germany has finally broken with its policy and is sending thousands of anti-aircraft/tank missiles. Sweden has gotten off the fence and done the same. Denmark has given the OK for its citizens to go to Ukraine and serve in Ukraine's foreign volunteer military force, which is now 50K strong. Turkey has delivered additional lethal assistance. And of course, the US is leading the charge with hundreds of millions in lethal weapons.
The war has fundamentally flipped upside-down. Putin is losing and is becoming a desperate animal. He will order his military to commit war crimes -- carpet bombing of cities and the indiscriminate killing of Ukrainians.
I think you’re right. Time was never on Russia's side. Blitzkrieg and invincibility was the Russian path to a lightning victory. If Ukraine gets the additional manpower plus being resupplied by the EU and NATO, that’s a real game changer. There’s a genuine possibility of a Winter War repeat.
And domesticity, I think Putin has badly overplayed his hand. My sense is that his threats of nuclear Armageddon may have rattled the oligarchs and the secret police in was that sanctions didn’t and probably couldn’t. Being forced to live in a mafia state because of sanctions is bad, risking losing your billions is bad and might prompt action; knowing that a madman is thinking about annihilating the world and your family along with it is extremely likely to prompt the oligarchs to do something even though it entails serious risks for them. I really wonder what the NSA is picking up in terms of communications amongst the oligarchs and if they are reaching out to Putin‘s personal guard or other powers in the secret police.
Also, tomorrow is going to potentially be a big day in Russia. There’s talk on the internet that banks are running out of foreign currency, the ruble might collapse, and so might what’s left of the stock market. If it happens, it could tee up a major economic collapse and social unrest.
These are dangerous times for everyone but if Ukraine holds out for at least another month, hopefully sanctions will keep ratcheting up, more domestic turmoil, and Putin will be behind the eight ball. Will he lash out at US and EU with cyberattacks? Will US respond in kind, essentially leaving Putin replaying the bunker scene from Downfall but with the ability to destroy humanity on his way out?
I also wonder what the members of the general staff who warned of a Winter War reprise are thinking about now?
Will Putin shut down Russian trading and close the banks?
Russian Central Bank had taken steps to artificially prop up its banks, with extra buying of USD for reserves and fixing the valuation of bank assets to maintain a false sense of safety. US/EU targeted RCB, and so now the Ruble is collapsing in value with no one to prop it up. Normally, RCB would be trying to buy up USD, but it can't anymore.
With this level of devaluation, millions of Russian pensioners will not make it through the month. 40-50% inflation will stop most Russians from being able to meet daily expenses.
Russia's economic collapse was moved up in timing by targeting the RCB. Putin's going to have a growing number of protesters this week.
I don’t know. Tomorrow will be bad no matter what. The proposed peace talks went nowhere. Presumably the cargo planes will pallets of $100 bills have stopped. And the ATMs are running dry. I don’t see a good move for Putin in terms of the economy.
I think he has to bank on a short war. But if it goes much more than a month or two and the west keeps ratcheting up sanctions and other countries keep on the pressure to ostracize Russia, he’s going to retaliate probably with a cyberattack and a remote possibility that he uses a combination of Fox News and direct contacts to mobilize his Republican allies and their armed militias to bring pressure on Biden.
I really think there’s no good way out for anyone except possibly Ukraine if it can pull off a Winter War. I don’t know what Biden and the west will do if Putin initiates terror attacks or cyberattacks; retaliation invites escalation, not to retaliate probably means the west’s united front collapses and Ukraine is doomed.
Best case scenario is the people at the top of the security forces and the military kill the Putin family and then divvy up the loot after telling Ukraine “never mind”.
Things are happening fast. Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, over a €trillion, will sell off its Russian holdings. Will Russia have to spend some of its hoarded reserves to keep stock prices from cratering?
I don’t know that the RCB has any reserves. The past few days have been extremely brutal for the bank and the Russian economy. From what I gather from the people I’ve been following and that Josh Marshall follows, the ruble is close to worthless and dropping; Russia is increasingly a US Dollar based economy and that’s what people are evidently withdrawing from banks and ATMs.
I think a repeat of the Winter War is still a long shot but the sanctions, the economic pressure, and the ostracism are taking a severe toll. The sanctions are slowly spreading in the direction of the oligarchs and their effects are evidently being intensified by increasingly widespread panic in the Russian population.
If the sanctions hold and continue to expand, plus the Ukrainian cities are able to hold out or even begin a counteroffensive in April or May, Russia will be under intense pressure to simply stop fighting and withdraw. My guess is that Putin will retaliate against the USA with cyberattacks; not sure if he can afford to do much more such as shut of energy deliveries because without that money the Russian economy will crash and burn.
I think Monday and Tuesday will be huge. Putin might need to declare a bank holiday to stop the run on Russia’s bank that people are predicting. There’s indications that US treasury and EU law enforcement are hunting for the assets and giant yachts of the few oligarchs who’ve been sanctioned if they make high profile seizures that’s going to make the others sweat.
Like I said, Winter War is still a prohibitive long shot but it’s looking a little bit better every day that Ukraine holds out and the Russian economy stays in free fall. Got my fingers crossed!
It's fabulous to watch almost the entirety of the complete fruitcake population doing a collective 180 on how much they love Putin.
Biden is a coward and a weakling because he doesn't order Putin assassinated!
MAGA rioters on January 6 were just like defending Kyiv!
My Russian wife never existed!
As to that kickass modern military hardware....there's this video of some really shabby APCs......
https://www.reddit.com/r/Damnthatsinteresting/comments/t223q5/ukrainian_troops_seize_russian_combat_vehicles
Scrolling down the page I saw a protestor holding a sign reading “Dear Putin, Let’s speed up to the part where you kill yourself in a bunker”
Putin is getting rid of his old junk on purpose?
Chart illustrating NATO vs Russian armed forces,
https://i.redd.it/eid22i0ushk81.png