The YouGov weekly tracking poll stubbornly sticks with a 3-point Harris lead this week:
Donald Trump is exactly where he was in July with 44% of the vote. It seems like this is pretty much his ceiling. But the undecided/other vote is still around 8%. Harris has made a bit of progress over the past couple of months but hasn't sealed the deal.
I think her new Medicare program to pay for in home care should help her. There are probably many people who are facing elderly care issues that would benefit from it.
Her program would also help caregivers of disabled or chronically ill children
I think many people would benefit, and would like it. But almost no one will know anything about it. It's not going to get much press coverage.
It's barely in the news today, and will disappear entirely within the week. Only the most avid political news junkies will know about it, and those people are already decided on a candidate.
i doubt many of the people we need to target believe she can get it done.
I'd rather vote for someone who might get it done, as slim as those odds are, rather than a person who wouldnt even try and his party that are dead set against any expansion of Medicare.
How one could still be undecided at this point is fucking insane. Though supporting a con man is equally fucking insane.
Exactly, which is why it s so infuriating (but utterly predictable) that the NYT regularly genuflects to its panel of thirteen undecided morons, treating them like Socrates, Aristotle, and the Oracle of Delphi rolled into one.
And on a slightly different issue, once you start treating these people in that manner, they will inevitably begin to think they actually are Socrates, Aristotle, and the Oracle of Delphi rolled into one. Which I would think would destroy their supposed value (to the extent that they have any) as representative undecided voters. But then again, I am not a relentlessly both sides media organization intent on normalizing an election that clearly has Naziism on the ballot, so what do I know?
Truly, to you both. And I'm also tired of pundits pronouncing how Harris has done everything right for the mythical center, as with Jonathan Chait in New York mag, or has done everything wrong and needs to do it all differently, as with Alex Shepherd at The New Republic online. Either way, centrist or left, their certainty that they and only they know what it would take to win over the stubborn undecided is beyond me.
MEOOOOOW. If the 2-legs want to vote for a CONVICTED FELON...2-legs aren't smart! Kitties know.
MEOOOOOW. If the 2-legs want to vote for a CONVICTED FELON SEX OFFENDER...2-legs are pretty MEOOOOOW STUPID....Kitties know.
I don't expect the polls to budge until about a week before the election. The way they move then will determine my expectations for American democracy.
Nah. His real, absolute ceiling is dictated by his 2020 vote percentage: 46.8%
Any gains he may have made in certain male groups and minorities, he's completely lost in females. Most people aren't stupid enough to turn off people in equal or greater numbers than one has gained. Trump is an exception.
He doesn't have a strategic mind. He never thinks about what he says from one moment to the next. He probably doesn't even realize by saying one thing to one group he's alienating another. In that case he'll say something to pander to that group while alienating the first. He is that stupid. That and or he just doesn't give a shit. Which could very well be the case.
This is what I've been saying all along. What's striking in the polls is how consistent they've been. Nothing seems to move them. Nothing. This is what you'd expect when virtually everyone has made up their minds, and why wouldn't they? The number 1 issue for nearly everyone is DJT. He's a thoroughly known quantity. You either love him or you hate him, but no one is on the fence. Nearly everyone is going to vote the way they voted in 2020.
It's inconceivable that any significant number of Biden voters will switch to Trump, so his ceiling is the votes he got in 2020. The ceiling is the votes he got, though, not the percentage because the percentage depends on turnout, which is always a wild card. If Harris can get all the Biden voters to turn out and vote, she'll win handily.
Nah. His real, absolute ceiling is dictated by his 2020 vote percentage: 46.8%
Based on what, your hopium? I'd be very surprised if Trump were to outright win the popular vote, sure, but not shocked. And there's certainly no law of the universe "dictating" that his share couldn't exceed 2020's by a bit. In that election, Trump was massively hit by the agonized state of national conditions. He was in the White House, after all. He's not weighted by that particular albatross this time around.
I know a lot of people cite abortion, but a depressingly large number of Americans appear poised to vote for someone they know to be bad on myriad levels simply because they're cheesed off over the price of a Happy Meal.
I believe it remains a very winnable race for Kamala Harris. And I'm hopeful for a change the polls will ultimately prove to have underestimated the Democratic nominee's numbers—and not the Republican's. But make no mistake—things are hanging by a thread: all the signs point to a coin toss election.
I know lots of people who voted for Trump twice and will do so again. I know a handful of people who voted for him in 2016 but not in 2020 and are not going to vote for him this year. I don't know anyone who voted for Biden and who is planning to vote for Trump this year. This is admittedly anecdotal, but I haven't seen any polls that speak to the question of Biden voters switching to Trump. This is critical. Biden won by 7 million votes. Polls were close right up to election day, but 7 million votes was not a coin-toss election. That's a larger margin than Obama's in 2012, both in votes and percentage.
Barring a large disparity in turnout, the only way Trump can win is by winning over several million Biden voters. I just can't see it.
In the few months that she's been in the race, it's been said that Harris has raised about $1B. That's more than a normal campaign would raise over an entire year or campaign.
Kellyanne Conway said the Trump strategy was to outsource their ground game. That sounded to me like an attempt to avoid having to say that they just don't have the money.
There are precincts without Trump campaign offices in Michigan, apparently.
I haven't checked the last few FEC monthly filings, but monthly individual donations to Trump never added up to over $1M, whereas they were pushing $10M monthly for Harris and Biden before that.
Considering that gap in individual contributions, it looks like a good proxy to measure voter enthusiasm. And that's despite all the tchotchkes Trump is trying to hawk to make a buck.
But I hope she keeps running like she's behind, and if she does, I think she'll sweep the "battleground" states.
"Harris has made a bit of progress over the past couple of months but hasn't sealed the deal."
Yeah, that's not true at all. 538 had her peaking at a 64% chance of winning on September 18th. Since then, she's fallen to 54%.
Prediction markets show the same, with Harris peacking at 53.7% on Augist 15th. They now show Trump with a 51.3% chance of winning and Harris doen to 47.3%.
The betting market seems like a thin and fairly biased market. They consistently lean right.
Right now Trump and the entire Republican party are just spitting into the wind to see what sticks, and, it all does.
All the Democrats have to do is run clips of his demented fantasies on every topic and ask what drugs is he taking, what planet does he live on, who let the squirrels out of his head?
I guess this is OT but it’s so funnny I had to share it. It’s from Melania’s book regarding her skin care product grift:
“Over the next few months, we developed several items: the Fluid Day Serum, the Luxe Night with Vitamins A and E, cleansing balm, and an exfoliating peel, all priced between $50 and $150. In my meetings with chemists, I discovered the rejuvenating properties of caviar.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/books/2024/10/08/melania-trump-memoir-review/
Reminds me of "Pearl Cream". Probably not as expensive as her products, but probably as effective as anything made with fish roe. Which is to say not in the least.
I'm sure the most effective rejuvenating thing she discovered was a consultation with a plastic surgeon.