Month: December 2021

Here's the latest from Monmouth University polling:

Forget everything else. Forget about whether the rollout of the vaccines was imperfect. Forget about Paxlovid. Forget about the CDC. This overwhelms everything else.

If Donald Trump and the rest of the conservative establishment had gone into full battle mode over COVID vaccinations, urging everyone to get their shots immediately, the crisis would be all but over. We all know just how effective the conservative media machine can be, and if Trump and McCarthy and Fox News and talk radio and Dan Bongino and all the rest had been telling their fans to get vaccinated, Republicans would probably be somewhere in the vicinity of 96% vaccinated too.

Everything else pales in comparison. This is who to blame. If conservatives hadn't deliberately fought vaccination, we would probably be the most highly vaccinated country in the world right now. And life really would be nearly back to normal.

POSTSCRIPT: You may be wondering if these poll numbers can possibly be correct. I don't know, but it doesn't really matter. Even if it's more like 60% vs. 90%, the conclusion is the same: conservative leaders are responsible for our low vaccination rate. It's almost beyond belief. Almost.

When inflation rises, there's always fear of a wage-price spiral. That is, wages go up more than prices in order to give workers a genuine pay increase, then prices have to go up to make up for this, rinse and repeat. But that's not happening this time around:

Average wages went negative in April and have stayed there throughout the rest of the year. In the most current month, earnings were down 2% compared to last year.

This could change, but for now there's no evidence of a wage-price spiral. Prices are going up, but that's all.

Here's the latest from California:

Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said Monday that masks will be required in all public indoor spaces for one month beginning Wednesday through January 15.

The state will also require those attending large indoor events to provide proof of a negative PCR test taken within 48 hours before the event. Previously, the window was 72 hours. People who use a rapid antigen test must take it within 24 hours of the event.

[This is not correct. See update below.]

The mask mandate is fine, but the test requirement is a huge pain in the ass. Testing is more widely available than in the past, but PCR tests still take 1-3 days to get results. So if you get a test 48 hours before the concert you have tickets for, you'll probably get results back in time but then again, you might not. Of course, you always have the option of paying $150 for guaranteed quick turnaround, but that's pretty pricey.

The antigen test is better, but if you're going to an evening event you'll have to get it done on the same day as the event you're going to. If that's a weekday, taking time off from work might be a problem.

It all just seems a bit much. Even with omicron blah blah blah, proof of vaccination ought to be enough, shouldn't it? It's not perfect, but is it substantially worse than the testing requirement?

UPDATE: The Wall Street Journal is wrong, and therefore so was I. The testing requirement is only for people who are unvaccinated. If you've been fully vaccinated, you can attend indoor events merely by showing proof, just like always. Sorry about that.

This was originally published a few months ago, but the St. Louis Fed re-promoted it tonight on Twitter and I hadn't seen it before. Behold this scatterplot of state spending vs. state politics:

What this shows is that there's very little difference between red states and blue states when it comes to government spending. Wyoming, for example, is very red but spends 25% of its GDP. Massachusetts is very blue but spends only 17% of its GDP. The correlation between spending and political leanings is close to zero.

So if you want to live in a state that's tightfisted with its money, Georgia and Texas should be on your list. But so should New Hampshire and Connecticut and Delaware. Red states may talk a good game, but it turns out that on average they spend just as much as blue states.

The first swamp tour I took in Louisiana was modeled on the Disneyland "Jungle Cruise" ride: very professional, lots of wisecracks, and a route planned down to the inch. First stop: alligators, since everyone wants to see alligators. So it was alligators we saw.

I don't personally care all that much about alligators, but I did finally get the straight dope about why the guides feed them. It turns out that alligators are afraid of humans. You could dive into gator infested waters and they'd all just swim away from you. So the treats are the only way to get them to hang around for the tourists. It has nothing to do with giving them a lazier alternative to human flesh, as I had vaguely assumed.

I wanted to make sure I completely understood the restrictions placed on the recent debt ceiling increase, so I went and looked at S.610, the enabling bill. Here it is:

Plainly, Democrats can raise the debt ceiling by any amount they want. So why are they raising it by only $2.5 trillion? Why not double or triple that, so there's no debt ceiling fight anytime before the 2024 election?

Or, for that matter, increase it by $100 trillion and put the whole thing to rest? Is there a crafty political reason for not doing this? Or is it because certain senators won't go along? Can someone explain, please?

Jonathan Chait comments today on an interview in the Wall Street Journal with Norman Podhoretz, one of the first and most influential neoconservative intellectuals of the '60s. Podhoretz has gone from being so-so about Donald Trump to being a big fan:

The aspect of Trumpism that Podhoretz sees most clearly is Trump’s refusal to abide by the fair elections he loses, the rule of law, or other democratic niceties. Like many conservatives, Podhoretz sees these qualities as evidence that Trump grasps the existential stakes of domestic political conflict.

“It’s a war, in my view,” Podhoretz says. “Many people are reluctant to see it in those terms. I mean, people say it’s a lot like 1858 and so on, but I don’t see it as a prelude to a civil war and 600,000 Americans dead. That’s not my meaning. But spiritually it’s a war.” Asked if the division within the right is between Republicans who see domestic politics in such stark terms and those who don’t, Podhoretz agrees: “I think Trump was the only guy who understood the situation in those terms, whether by instinct or whatever.”

This is an illustration of what I was talking about the other day. Podhoretz isn't critical of the January 6 insurrection—in fact, he seems to actively approve of it—because he apparently believes the threat to America is so great that virtually anything is justified in the righteous war against liberalism. In this, he is joined by many, many other Republicans.

POSTSCRIPT: It's also worth noting that, at its core, Podhoretz's real beef with the left has always been over patriotism:

This ‘woke’ business—critical race theory, Black Lives Matter, all of it—is just pure anti-American hatred. And I think [its proponents] would admit that. Which is why I keep saying it’s a war. If you don’t understand that, you don’t know what the hell is going on.

Perhaps also worth noting: the examples of anti-Americanism that immediately pop into his head are all race based.

According to the latest tracking poll from Pew Research, the number of Americans who claim no religion continued to climb throughout 2020 and 2021:

The number of atheists and agnostics has stayed steady for the past five years, but the number of people who claim "nothing in particular" has gone up five points since 2016. The religious world is ending not with a bang, but a whimper.

In the New York Times today, economist Glenn Hubbard says, "We Need to Do Hard but Necessary Things to Tackle Inflation." Uh oh, I thought. What horrible things is he proposing?

The Fed must begin tapering asset purchases more aggressively now. In recent weeks, Mr. Powell has signaled a willingness to double the pace of the taper to $30 billion a month — a move he should make in this week’s meeting of Fed officials.

....The Fed should also raise its benchmark federal funds rate in early 2022. This is a short-term interest rate at which banks borrow and lend reserve balances with one another. He should also be prepared to make further adjustments should macroeconomic conditions, including broader and longer-lasting inflation, demand it.

That's it? Reduce asset purchases—something the Fed is already likely to do—and raise interest rates by a quarter point or so a few months from now? If this is all Hubbard thinks we need to do, he must not think the current bout of inflation is very serious at all.

Larry Summers, bless his heart, at least puts his money where his mouth is. He thinks we've set off a permanent and dangerous increase in the inflation rate to 4% or so, and he recommends two or three sharp interest rate increases next year. That's a good deal more serious, though still hardly Paul Volcker territory.

I'll confess I've never understood Summers's argument. I know it's trendy in left-wing circles to write off Summers as little better than a Republican-lite hack, but that's stupid. Summers is, and always has been, a mainstream liberal and a brilliant economist. You'll notice, for example, that Paul Krugman never writes him off. This is why I wish I understood his argument better. Summers says our current round of inflation was caused by the $1.9 trillion rescue package passed in March, and that part I get. But if that's the case, wouldn't the resulting inflation be transitory almost by definition? By now that money has all been spent, and wages clearly haven't spiraled out of control (Real earnings are down about 2% from a year ago.). So what's the mechanism for generating many years of inflation unless we stomp on the economy?

For what it's worth, here's the (very approximate) inflation rate predicted by current TIPS yields:

Don't take this super seriously, but it suggests that investors think inflation will be down to 3% by the end of next year and then keep dropping.

I dunno. Maybe there's more here that I don't understand. IANAE. But as savings get spent (which has already happened) and spending becomes normal (also already happened) and real wages continue to drop (also already happened) and investors are expecting that TIPS yields will be about 3% at the end of the year (also already happened) and supply chains get untangled (very likely to happen in the first half of next year)—

Given all that, what's the story for high inflation being permanent? Inquiring minds want to know.

Today, Rep. Liz Cheney read off a list of text messages that were sent on January 6 to President Trump's chief of staff, Mark Meadows:

These texts leave no doubt: the White House knew exactly what was happening at the Capitol. Republican members of Congress and others wrote to Mark Meadows as the attack was underway:

"Hey, Mark, protestors are literally storming the Capitol. Breaking windows on doors. Rushing in. Is Trump going to say something?"

"We are under siege up here at the Capitol."

"They have breached the Capitol."

"There's an armed standoff at the House Chamber door."

"We are all helpless."

Dozens of texts, including from Trump administration officials, urged immediate action by the President:

"POTUS has to come out firmly and tell protestors to dissipate. Someone is going to get killed"

"Mark, he needs to stop this. Now"

"TELL THEM TO GO HOME"

"POTUS needs to calm this s*** down."

Indeed, according to the records, multiple Fox News hosts knew the President needed to act immediately. They texted Meadows that:

"Hey Mark, the president needs to tell people in the Capitol to go home...this is hurting all of us...he is destroying his legacy." Laura Ingraham wrote.

"Please get him on tv. Destroying everything you have accomplished." Brian Kilmeade wrote.

"Can he make a statement?...Ask people to leave the Capitol." Sean Hannity urged.

As the violence continued, one of the President's sons texted Meadows:

"He's got to condemn this s*** Asap. The Capitol Police tweet is not enough." Donald Trump, Jr. texted.

Meadows responded: "I'm pushing it hard. I agree."

Still, President Trump did not immediately act.

Donald Trump, Jr. texted again and again, urging action by the President: "We need an Oval address. He has to lead now. It has gone too far and gotten out of hand."

None of this is a surprise. Virtually everyone—Democrat and Republican alike—condemned the insurrection at the time it happened. Over time, however, Republicans steadily beat a retreat, and within a couple of months they were all saying that Democrats were making a mountain out of a molehill. That's what they were saying in public, anyway:

The best thing about the Meadows texts is how it's embarrassing to people who were willing to be half-way patriotically decent in private but not in public.

— Jonah Goldberg (@JonahDispatch) December 14, 2021

These text messages will do nothing to sway the MAGA crowd, since they believe the insurrection was a righteous affair and have only contempt for folks who might have panicked in the moment. But they should certainly have an impact on all the rest of us.