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Here is the price of Brent crude over the past couple of years.

The price of Brent crude dipped at the start of the pandemic and then started recovering. This is far before the Ukraine war. The price mostly recovered by July 2020, which is where I start my chart, and then rose 130% ($60) by January 2022. After the Ukraine war started, the price increased another 25% ($25).

In other words, the Ukraine war is not the primary cause of high oil prices (and hence high gasoline prices). It just added a bit to a price that had already been soaring for a long time.

The article of the moment in progressive circles is Monday's Ryan Grim piece in the Intercept that's subtitled, "Meltdowns have brought progressive advocacy groups to a standstill at a critical moment in world history."

Quite so. The only surprising thing about Grim's account is that it took so long for someone on the left to write it. The widespread revolt of young staffers, especially in the nonprofit space, is the subject of endless talk within the progressive movement, but you'd never know it on the outside because it's been written about only in bits and pieces that never quite add up to a full story. Grim is the first to put the whole thing together without (very much) defensiveness or punch pulling.

The clash Grim describes between workers and management has been brewing for a while—since the election of Donald Trump, at least—but took off in earnest only after the 2020 murder of George Floyd by Minneapolis police. Staffers at progressive nonprofits, in a game of follow the leader, all began issuing demands, writing manifestos, and declaring that the organizations they worked for were hopelessly misogynistic, classist, white supremacist, and, inevitably, "unsafe." These revolts were eerily similar, and they drove management nuts:

At the ACLU, as at many organizations, the controversy quickly evolved to include charges that senior leaders were hostile to staff from marginalized communities. Each accusation is unique; some have obvious merit, while others don’t withstand scrutiny. What emerges by zooming out is the striking similarity of their trajectories. One foundation official who has funded many of the groups entangled in turmoil said that having a panoramic view allowed her to see those common threads. “It’s the kind of thing that looks very context-specific, until you see a larger pattern,” she said.

....Inner turmoil can often begin, the managers said, with performance-based disputes that spiral into moral questions. “I also see a pattern of … people who are not competent in their orgs getting ahead of the game by declaring that others have engaged in some kind of -ism, thereby triggering a process that protects them in that job while there’s an investigation or turmoil over it,” the foundation official added. Such disputes then trigger broader cultural conversations, with battle lines being drawn on each side.

Unsurprisingly to anyone who has any experience with progressive organizations, this problem may have its roots in social justice but it's been weaponized by technology:

Twitter, as the saying goes, may not be real life, but in a world of remote work, Slack very much is.”

In the past, workers gathered around the water cooler to air their gripes to each other. Today it's an endless barrage of Slack conversations, Twitter feuds, and Zoom meetings. All of these are things that can reach out to far more people than will fit around a water cooler, and they can be used relentlessly and effortlessly by a generation that takes to them naturally. Managers fight perpetual rear-guard battles, but because progressives tend to be highly verbal people this generally leads only to more and more talk:

[Months after Joe Biden's inauguration] most of the foundation-backed organizations that make up the backbone of the party’s ideological infrastructure were still spending their time locked in virtual retreats, Slack wars, and healing sessions, grappling with tensions over hierarchy, patriarchy, race, gender, and power.

....“I got to a point like three years ago where I had a crisis of faith, like, I don’t even know, most of these spaces on the left are just not — they’re not healthy. Like all these people are just not — they’re not doing well,” [a senior manager] said.

....The environment has pushed expectations far beyond what workplaces previously offered to employees. “A lot of staff that work for me, they expect the organization to be all the things: a movement, OK, get out the vote, OK, healing, OK, take care of you when you’re sick, OK. It’s all the things,” said one executive director. “Can you get your love and healing at home, please? But I can’t say that, they would crucify me.”

Could the Heritage Society come up with a better scheme for eviscerating their progressive foes?

Another leader said the strife has become so destructive that it feels like an op. “I’m not saying it’s a right-wing plot, because we are incredibly good at doing ourselves in, but — if you tried — you couldn’t conceive of a better right-wing plot to paralyze progressive leaders....Progressive leaders cannot do anything but fight inside the orgs, thereby rendering the orgs completely toothless for the external battles in play.”

One of the biggest problem with all this is that it prompts progressive orgs to fight back against conservative orgs not with the messages most likely to win people to their side, but with maximal left-wing arguments that just scare people off. Young staffers insist on it, and management, who are supposed to be the adults in the room, have neither the power or the fortitude to rein them in and manage.

Even worse, this is all happening at a time when conservatives have become complete lunatics. It should be a golden age for progressives, who have the chance of a lifetime to make huge strides in the political arena. Instead we've gotten weaker. That's a hell of an indictment when you're competing against a conservative movement headlined by the likes of Donald Trump, Tucker Carlson, Kevin McCarthy, Ron DeSantis, and Steve Bannon.

This progressive war of all against all has long since become intractable and unwinnable. Is there anybody on our side who commands the moral authority and widespread respect to put us back on track?¹

¹Actually, there is: Barack Obama. It's a shame that he's virtually abandoned both the Democratic Party and the progressive movement since stepping down as president.

The Wall Street Journal says the Fed is likely to react harshly to recent news about price levels:

A string of troubling inflation reports in recent days is likely to lead Federal Reserve officials to consider surprising markets with a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point interest-rate increase at their meeting this week.

Before officials began their premeeting quiet period on June 4, they had signaled they were prepared to raise interest rates by a half percentage point this week and again at their meeting in July.

I hope they don't do this. First, these "surprise" moves are never surprises because they're always telegraphed in advance. Second, the latest inflation report wasn't that bad. It showed a plateau in headline CPI, not a new resurgence of rising prices, along with a continuing decline in core CPI.

What's more, there are several good reasons to think the economy is going to slow down without any extra help: (1) the Fed is already raising interest rates and slowing asset purchases, (2) the Biden stimulus will fade out in the second half of the year, (3) the housing market is likely to pop thanks to mortgage rates above 5%, (4) personal savings have dropped back to pre-pandemic levels, (5) consumer debt has increased to nearly its historical average, (6) real consumer spending hit its pre-pandemic level in early 2021 and has been rising at normal historical rates ever since, and (7) supply chain problems are easing and will probably continue to ease.

And there's one more thing: Milton Friedman's famous long and variable lags. For fiscal policy, like Biden's stimulus, it takes time for the money to get spent and then a while longer for the spending to affect the economy. In other words, we should expect its peak effects right about now, followed by a steady decline. Monetary policy also takes a while to affect inflation and economic growth. The bright side of this is that Fed action probably won't dampen growth right away. The dark side is that it will dampen growth in 2023—and are we sure we're going to want that when 2023 finally rolls around?

Inflation is likely to subside over the rest of the year and the Fed really shouldn't panic over it. All that does is panic everyone else in a time when the Fed should be demonstrating stability and restraint. Beyond that, we certainly don't need to throw the economy into a recession just because that's what Paul Volcker did in 1980. Today's economy is nothing close to what Volcker faced.

We are officially in a bear market now. However, I'd like to show you something:

There are two things about this chart that are different from most of the ones you see. First, I adjusted the S&P index for inflation. This doesn't usually make a huge difference, but if you're looking at price levels over a long period of time—or during a period of high inflation—it's best to go ahead and adjust.

Second, I ran my favorite trendline through the raw numbers. As usual, it's based on data only through February 2020 and then extended to the present. It shows you where the S&P 500 would be if there had been no pandemic and the market had just kept rising at its post-recession rate.

The answer is that it would be about where it is now. It's corrected for the weird boom of 2021 and nothing more. So far.

That may change, especially if the Fed overreacts to inflation. For now, though, it doesn't look all that scary except to people who bought at the peak of the 2021 bubble.

The top picture shows Victoria Azarenka playing at this year's French Open. A decade ago Azarenka was ranked #1 in the world but then suffered through some injuries and afterward took time off for the birth of her son. She never regained her top form after that and was ranked 15th going into Roland Garros.

The photo was taken during Azarenka's third round match against Jil Teichmann of Switzerland, who was ranked 24th at the time. Teichmann, at bottom, won in the third set.

May 27, 2022 — Paris, France

For some reason it occurred to me a couple of days ago to think about the sheer number of cranks and crackpots who roamed the White House and bent Donald Trump's ear about election fraud in late 2020 and early 2021. I don't mean people who are just a little conspiracy minded; I mean out-and-out loons like these:

  • Michael Flynn
  • Rudy Giuliani
  • Sidney Powell
  • Mike Lindell (aka "pillow guy")
  • John Eastman

That's off the top of my head. Who am I missing?

This is why I've always wondered: Was Trump lying when he said the election was stolen? Or did he really believe it? Trump is capable of talking himself into almost anything, and after marinating in this crackpot circus for a while I wouldn't be surprised if Trump's id had truly convinced him that Democrats had schemed (successfully!) to steal the vote in thousands of precincts nationwide.

So maybe Trump isn't a congenital liar. But if he isn't, he's a mentally deranged lunatic. Take your pick.

Here's the latest Gallup polling on abortion, conducted "mostly" after the recent leak of the Supreme Court opinion overturning Roe v. Wade:

Gallup reports that pro-choice sentiment is the highest it's been since 1995. But be careful! It turns out that this is due almost solely to changes among Democrats:

Democrats are now more fired up about abortion than they have been for a long time, which is good. They should be. And this will help with turnout in the November midterms.

But we still have a lot of work to do persuading everyone else to become friendlier to abortion rights. The imminent end of Roe v. Wade hasn't had much impact on them yet.

Take a look at this photo:

How would you describe it?

  1. This is a small white house.
  2. This is a white small house.

The answer is #1, of course. The second description sounds obviously wrong even though it just changes the order of the adjectives. Native English speakers understand this intuitively even if nobody ever taught it to them. I certainly don't remember this ever being a topic in any of my English classes.

But is this an actual rule? It turns out the answer is yes. The Cambridge Dictionary provides this handy table:

Some of you know this already, but I only found out about it a year ago. I happened to be reading a piece about teaching ESL and it turns out this adjective order stuff is a huge pain for English learners. Now you know.

A week ago I predicted that the Senate would do nothing on gun regulation. But over the weekend negotiators announced they'd reached a deal. So was I too cynical?

Maybe! But keep two things in mind:

  • Nothing has passed yet. There's plenty of time for things to fall apart.
  • Even if it passes, the "framework" announced on Sunday contains only two (2) provisions that actually regulate guns. One would slightly strengthen background checks for gun buyers under 21. The other would prevent domestic violence offenders from owning a gun even if they aren't married to their victim (the so-called "boyfriend loophole").

The rest of the Senate agreement deals with mental health, red flag laws, and so forth. So count me as still cynical. This bit of legislative trivia will probably get watered down even further and, even then, may well not pass. The conservative noise machine has plenty of time to convince their followers that no true friend of liberty would restrict the Second Amendment rights of unmarried domestic abusers.

POSTSCRIPT: Is the success of "framework" negotiations a historic win just for showing that Republicans are finally open to gun regulation, even if things are starting off small? A lot of pundits seem to think so, but I'd say this is wishful thinking on a grand scale. Republicans are just playing for time, not showing any real interest in stopping gun massacres.

A couple of months ago the chatterati could talk about nothing but supply chain problems causing shortages of consumer goods. Now, with whip snapping speed, everything has changed. Suddenly the conversation is all about gluts:

The big-box retailer Target said Tuesday that it’s having inventory troubles. Target has a lot of stuff, including furniture and appliances, that nobody seems to want to buy. And it’s not the only company sitting on too much of the wrong goods.

Damn. That was a fast turnaround:

WTF? The usual metric for this is the inventory/sales ratio, and as of March it was still well below its pre-pandemic level:

Has the IS ratio really surged since March not just to 1.20 or so, but so far beyond it that retailers are now complaining about bulging warehouses? All in eight weeks?

As for autos, we don't need to bother with ratios or anything else. The drop in inventories is so stark that we can just look at units:

If Target says they have too much inventory, I believe them. If auto suppliers and dealers expect inventories to recover from historic depths within a couple of months, they must have good reason for thinking so. But this is sure the mother of all dizzying turnarounds.