I was browsing through some other stuff and came across a set of four economic predictions I made last April. Let's see how I did:
- 30-year fixed mortgages will break 5%.
.
- Home prices will stop rising and might even drop 10% by the end of the year.
.
- Gasoline prices will drop 40-50 cents within the next couple of weeks.
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- Inflation will start to recede by late spring and will be three or four points lower by the end of the year.
.
I was a little too early on my gasoline prediction, but more than right over the course of the year. The other three were spot on. All in all, pretty good!
Congratulations Kevin. You nailed it!!!!
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Well, Nostradamus is your middle name
😉
You made the prediction in April, but here you gave the median price of June... In April, per your chart, the median price was something like $395,000. Taking your projection/guess for December of $364,000 that means a drop of 7.8%... 🙂
I'm giving Kevin a pass on this one. He didn't say exactly when they'd stop rising, and he could have meant for the 10% to be measured from wherever the peak turned out to be.
And that's why I always read what you say about the economy, Kevin.
Good work Kevin, on your game as usual.
The Oracle of Irvine!
Did Mr. Drum imagine a 6 year old would shoot their teacher in anger? Maybe that’s why there really is a teacher shortage. Oh well… there is no chart for this. The 6 year old didn’t commit a crime, their guardian did. Surely no one involved this incident can be given the title of parent.
That’s what Mr.Drum has missed. He’s not interested in pondering the significance of these isolated incidents. They don’t figure in his averages. To be fair, he’s got plenty of other concerns. So then it’s up to others to observe society and highlight the dangers. 6 year olds shooting their teachers with guns provided by their pathetic useless adult whores and drug users is something worthy of comment.
I’m sure we can all imagine some excuse… systemic racism, lack of health care, lack of mental health therapy, blah, blah, blah…
Let’s give that useless adult some money so they will take better care of their useless abandoned children. Good grief.
I'm not sure how a gun-totin' kindergardener relates to "economic predictions." That said, the kid probably has already seen many hundreds of shootings on video, and performed many hundreds him or herself on video games. Why the big surprise? Heck, even dogs have been shooting their owners.
You keep trolling us on inflation. Your prediction there was not really spot on.
You wrote, "Inflation will start to recede by late spring and will be three or four points lower by the end of the year."
The core PCE inflation rate for March was 4.5%. And though it dropped under 4% for April, it bounced higher in May and June. By the end of the year it seems to have receded to 2%, which is not yet 3–4 points less than in March. I would say you came halfway close, but that's putting a lot of trust in one month's figure (November's, which is the latest we have).
So why can't the Fed see all the disinflation right in front of our faces?
Because too many people are working and the Fed can't have that.
"Because too many people are working and the Fed can't have that."
The FED has a problem then
In 1950, the peak of the baby boom the birth rate was 24.76 births per thousand people. THOSE folks are now 73 and are leaving the work place in droves.
23 years ago the birth rate was 14.3 births per thousand or just about half of what it was at the peak of the baby boom (severely rounded off)
so you have twice as many people leaving the work force as are entering the work force at age 24 or so.
The bad thing is that everyone knew this was going to happen.
Immigration cannot make up for this level of birth rate decline. We will need to wait until the boomers are gone before employment stabilizes but if you look at birth rate charts we have been steadily declining for decades - since 1950 or so.
Expectations on all sides has got to be adjusted. demand will slacken for EVERYTHING, there will be fewer workers and most importantly there will be less profit made. Even if exports were encouraged there's simply not enough workers to generate production of goods at the levels we have become accustomed to seeing...............
Everyone is talking about a real estate slowdown but it's flat out not happening in my county. My neighbor put her house on the market this week and there's a been a flood of cars parked all over the street with folks coming to look at the house. Not a luxury house a 1964 split foyer type that has bathroom/kitchen updates but not luxury materials but it IS a nice lot and she did fix up the enclosed porch and deck in the backyard as well as extensive landscaping. The asking is $779,900, obviously given the interest there will be a bidding war IMO.
I think the other listing on my street for just over $100,000 more - flippers snapped up the property when the owner's business failed and there was some sort of tailspin - might get interest but is a finished basement with an extra bathroom worth $100,000 more?
Investment firms are still buying up single family homes to rent out, which puts pressure on everyone trying to buy.
This is a different business model from those trying to flip a house.
Of course there are probably still pockets in the real estate market where there are half a million dollars "tear-me-downers" so a McMansion can be built.
We haven't had many rentals mostly flips in our 1960s neighborhood. Tear downs in my ZIP and the one adjacent to me are $600,000 to $700,000 depending on lot and zoning. Both houses are now under contract awaiting closing so apparently our neighborhood is still red hot. Good thing as my parent's house needs to be sold as soon as we finish sorting though their stuff and get it cleaned up.