Here are a few miscellaneous thoughts about Donald Trump's sit-down at the Economic Club of Chicago with Bloomberg editor John Micklethwait. The full thing is on YouTube here.
Near the beginning Trump spent what seemed like forever telling a "sir" story about a friend named John who builds auto plants and is currently building the world's biggest auto plant in Mexico. John supposedly told Trump a few days ago that the project had been abandoned because the owners were afraid Trump would win the election and put big tariffs on cars from Mexico.
Oddly, this story has a kernel of truth, but the friend's name is Elon, not John. Tesla had plans to build a factory in Monterrey that would produce a million cars a year, placing it among the world's biggest. But a few months ago Elon Musk said it was "on hold" because of concern over possible Trump tariffs.
This may or may not be the real reason for the pause. It certainly makes no sense since Trump can't raise tariffs on Mexican cars no matter how much he wants to. This is for the obvious reason that trade with Mexico is governed by the USMCA (aka "NAFTA 2.0"), which Trump called "the single greatest agreement ever signed" after he negotiated it. It went into effect in 2020.
After talking a bit more about tariffs, his "favorite word in the dictionary," Trump decided to go directly after Micklethwait, a longtime proponent of free trade: "It must be hard for you to spend 25 years talking about tariffs as negative and then have somebody explain to you that you're totally wrong." Uh huh.
Trump defended tariffs by reference to the steel tariffs he levied on China and other countries. "We saved our steel," he said. But if you look at the numbers since then, overall steel imports have gone up and domestic production has gone down:
Economics then had to take a back seat as Trump once again claimed that before he was president South Korea paid nothing to support the US military presence there. He says he demanded $5 billion and settled for $2 billion. "I got $2 billion for nothing." But then lamebrain Joe Biden caved in and let the payments lapse.
This is fantasy. The US has had a cost sharing agreement with South Korea since 1991. In 2017 it amounted to about $860 million. South Korea agreed to increase that to $930 million in 2019, but after that negotiations broke down because Trump did indeed demand $5 billion. So he got nothing. It was left to President Biden to negotiate a new deal at $1.02 billion with automatic annual increases.
South Korea pays other US defense expenses too, notably including about $10 billion toward the construction of a new Camp Humphreys 40 miles south of Seoul. It is the largest overseas US military base in the world.
Micklethwait struggled manfully to keep Trump on topic, and seemed slightly relieved when Trump was willing to address the issue of the dollar as a reserve currency. Hey, it's an economic topic, at least. "If you want to go to third world status," Trump warned, "lose your reserve currency."
Unfortunately, Trump didn't seem to know what it even meant to be a reserve currency. He talked repeatedly about countries saying they would "no longer be in the reserve currency," which makes no sense. Nobody is in or out of a reserve currency. It's just a matter of a currency being viewed as strong and safe and therefore worth holding and worth paying your bills in. The world has several already. The dollar is the biggest, but the yen, the euro, and the pound are all reserve currencies too.
In any case, Trump naturally insisted that Joe Biden was a moron who was tossing away the dollar's reserve status. He seems not to realize that the dollar got weaker on his watch and stronger under Biden:
Trump also complained that Fed chair Jerome Powell kept interest rates too high while he was president—until Trump threatened to fire him. That scared him so much he cut rates immediately. In fact, "he dropped them too much."
This is nuts. Even in 2019, when the economy was running hot, interest rates were always below 2.5%. Late in the year they were lowered moderately, but it was only after the pandemic started that they went to zero—as they certainly should have.
Then Micklethwait made the mistake of asking Trump precisely what he'd do to cut waste in the government. It probably seemed like a nice, concrete question, but Trump wouldn't answer. Instead he took the opportunity to yet again brag about how he saved $1.7 billion dollars almost overnight on a new pair of Air Force Ones. All he had to was call the CEO of Boeing and ask, something that no one before him had ever thought to do.
This is yet another Trump fantasy. He played no role in negotiating the Boeing contract, which ended up where everyone always thought it would. But no one ever challenges him, so he keeps repeating this tall tale every chance he gets.
On the subject of fantasies, Trump also insisted that he gave Apple a break on tariffs but only if they started manufacturing in the US. And they did! They opened a factory in Austin to make Mac Pros.
Except for one little detail: that factory opened in 2013, long before Trump was around. But he's been taking credit for it anyway since 2019.
After it was all over and Trump had done nothing but repeat his usual lies and demonstrate that he knows nothing about the economy, his fans at Fox News immediately began marveling at Trump's masterful performance in schooling Micklethwait. Why, Trump's command of economics was so overwhelming the poor guy never stood a chance. Seriously, they said that. It's a case study in toadying unrivaled in recent history.