Joe Biden appears to have lost the support of pretty much every leading Democrat. Few of them have publicly called for Biden to drop out of the race, but multiple reports say that privately at least four leading Dems are urging him to exit:
- Barack Obama
- Chuck Schumer
- Hakeem Jeffries
- Nancy Pelosi
In addition to Adam Schiff, nearly two dozen members of congress have publicly asked Biden to step down. Even Bernie Sanders, who publicly supports Biden, admits forthrightly that he's not up to the job.
Aside from his inner circle, it doesn't appear that Biden has any real support left. How long can he continue to hold out?
And he's lost the support of the overwhelming majority of ordinary Democrats. It's not just officials. Drudge is saying Joe will bow out this weekend. It's Drudge, so,....who knows? But it does have a whif of "end of the beginning" if not quite beginning of end.
Economist/Yougov suggests 80% of Democrats are fine with Harris as the nominee. As well they should be. She's quick on her feet, and can deliver crisp Dem talking points.
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4779366-kamala-harris-joe-biden-withdraw-2024-survey/
Maybe Trump would still prevail. Maybe! But Harris-Whitmer, Harris-Shapiro, Harris-Beshear etc would be a breath of fresh air. And even if we simply avoid a MAGA trifecta (ie, hold one of the two chambers), that would make a monumental difference, because a MAGA trifecta appears to be where we're headed at present.
+1
It will have to be Harris -- I don't see any other reasonable path forward that doesn't blow up the party and hand the election to Trump. Repubs and the media will shit all over her of course right out of the gate, but she will be able to at least fight back hard without the age/frailty thing hanging over her. As will a good running mate.
If it turns out this way, Shapiro can't be the vp candidate and Whitmer is only a little less unlikely-- her chance would be if they decide to double down on the obvious weak spot like Bill Clinton did. That leaves Beshear looking most likely right now, based on what pundits et al are speculating about publicly. And he's unemployed and available. But it's way early for that kind of decision, plus there could be others out there with some name recognition who haven't come up yet (admittedly though I have a hard time coming up with anybody reasonably seasoned and senior).
What the pols seem most worried about with Biden is that occasional and less-attached potential voters will be too discouraged to turn out for him, which would sink down-ballot candidates. That's probably hard to relate to for most of us, who I'd guess are in the camp that would crawl over broken glass to vote against trump. But it's potentially a big slice of people.
Why not Shapiro? Assuming he wants to. Swing state, centrist. Jewish of course, but with a Black/Asian woman at the head of the ticket, I don't think that would matter much to the (very large number of) racist voters.
Doug Emhoff is why. Imagine what will be made of that in certain very, very influential gop quarters.
Plus he's the governor of the state where the shooting just happened. Imagine what can be made of that, and realize that if it can be done, that crowd will do it.
Shapiro in a centrist and got a LOT of Republican and Independent support for his election as governor. He has the power to carry PA which appears in doubt as it stands now. He was also AG during 2020 when Trump et al tried to have our Mail in ballots thrown away. Josh is a great choice
Shapiro as governor of battleground PA is a good point. But who is the governor of Wisconsin? I think that will be the tipping point state.
Tony Evers seems to be a good guy with a good record in the face of massively gerrymandered gop majorities in both chambers, but everything I've seen says he isn't what you'd call a dynamic campaigner.
the "sheriffs stars" in trump's facebook ads in 2016 piece.
That's the kind of thing I'm thinking about, exactly
Doug Emhoff is why. Imagine what will be made of that in certain very, very influential gop quarters
I'm under no illusion that antisemitism in the United States has disappeared, but I personally don't think choosing Governor Shapiro as her running mate would or should be off the table for reasons of politics merely because Harris's husband is Jewish.
Hardcore antisemites (either of the pro-Hamas or Nazi variety) won't be voting for the Democratic ticket in any event.
There was absolutely no problem with Gore choosing Lieberman as his running mate in 2000, and they practically won that year. But if you're saying things have changed since then, that's perhaps a valid point.
I think the elites and white guys are horribly overestimating the anti-Biden vote and UNDERESTIMATING the I'll get pissed at the party if they f Joe Biden vote. They will discourage and lose more voters by forcing a change then going with Biden/Harris even if it brings a risk of voting for a dead guy; Trust me voters elect dead candidates all the time - they trust that the replacement will be of similar quality and politics.
I think it's also worth considering how many low information voters out there will go to the polls and scratch their heads and wonder where "Biden/Harris" is and/or who the heck Whitman or Shapiro are. The number ain't zero, and in a close election, we need every vote.
Which is why, if Biden steps aside, I really, really hope that Harris is at the top of the ticket.
This is what makes it all so maddening. Big-money donors and other hotshots should not be calling the tune. At the same time, Pelosi and Schumer are apparently hearing from their members, and seeing polling, about not getting turnout from marginal D voters with Biden at the top of the ticket, and losing a lot of seats. If that's accurate, then it doesn't matter what knives the big donors have been sharpening, even if that information points the same way. It doesn't make the big donors right in the way that matters.
I think scf down-thread has laid out a viable way to frame it. But it could only work if Biden himself leads it. And a lot of people would still be pissed and sad. Would they stay home? Potentially a risk, and they'll need attention.
I think black girls are overestimating the universal support for Biden. Many Dems held their nose to vote for him in 2020.
Harris-Anybody vs. Trump-NaziMiniMe would be fkin LIT. Can you imagine a clearer contest between visions of / for America?
Still scared stiff of the whole thing collapsing into a free-for-all if Biden steps aside. But it seems a large number of nominal Democrats have already decided to do that regardless (with the enthusiastic help of the MSM). And then of course when their preferred candidate doesn't get the nod, many of them would complain loudly &/or sulk instead of getting behind the nominee.
Sigh. The Dem Circular Firing Squad triumphs! They fkin massacred their opponents! Who were ... themselves!
if harris picked buttigieg, that might goad jimbo vance into debating.
& he might just call pete a "f*gg*t", in a reprise of wm. f. buckley vs. gore vidal.
Circular firing squad? Are you referring to Pelosi, Schumer, Jeffries, and Schiff and Obama as that?
One thing that elected officials like those know very well is what it takes to get elected. They have decided that Biden, at his age, doesn't have it. Although you have the perfect right to express your own opinion, I'm gonna trust their judgement over yours.
"And he's lost the support of the overwhelming majority of ordinary Democrats." I haven't seen any evidence of that and lots of evidence showing the exact opposite. Every other potential replacement will be worse than Biden.
haven't seen any evidence of that and lots of evidence showing the exact opposite
You're welcome to dispute the extensive (by now) polling evidence on this question, but it is, in fact evidence.
Uh, no, the onus is on you to prove a poll is statistically valid first before they can be accepted as the evidence you claim they are.
Now give it your best shot, you're on the clock as of now. I'm waiting, toc-tic toc-tic toc-tic ...
This is a comment section on a random blog. There’s no onus on anybody.
(Rolls eyes.)Your comment is so wrong it's not even wrong. You didn't get much of an education in critical thinking, did you? Or for that matter, critical reading.
Democrats certainly have their own poll-deniers, as witness the comment above. It seems like he or she even disputes the polls as evidence.
I'd suspect that he or she is an opposition troll, but I don't think that he or she is smart enough.
Sorry but all people around me do not want to see Harris. She is tainted as a VP and is not the right person to put in front of DT.
If I had a voice, a ticket Gretchen Whitmer/Buttigieg would add new blood and badly need teeth.
Agreed almost completely. Harris is not a good bet to beat Trump. I like Whitmer as President too, but realistically the Dems would need someone on the ticket to make Black Dems feel less like the party stiffed them. I would love Warnock but Dems need his GA seat, but I think Cory Booker would fit the bill nicely...
Republicans hate Harris, but they hate all Dems. Most of us have no real opinion about Harris. I haven't seen her do anything bad or good (just like with most VPs). I can't figure out why you think normal people don't like her.
Whitmer, Shapiro, Beshear. A serious question: does anybody know them? I'd bet 90% of voters couldn't pick them out of a lineup or tell you two things about any of them. I realize they may be articulate and "good" on television. If you think that's enough to swing an election, I'm not sure we see elections the same way. I am also skeptical a governor will flip a swing state unless the Dem ticket is winning nationally already.
If a switch does happen, the veep could be Buttigieg. He (a) ran a national campaign already, overperformed, and won a state in the 2020 primaries, (b) performed better than any other Dem politician (which a former first lady is not) in leaked Dem polling, and (c) is a friendly, familiar face to voters across the nation, inc. viewers of Fox, where he appears fairly often.
I've been a "go with Joe" guy most of the way since I believe a well-known, trusted, and accomplished incumbent carries advantages that everyone in the "Joe must go" camp vastly underestimate. But since yesterday it appears the "Joe must go" folks are winning the battle.
I understand the liability of Joe's age, health, and mental fitness.. Maybe it really is time to step aside. But making a switch is a step into a sea of unknowns, and people who are so cocksure of themselves don't really know what's ahead. It's a roll of the dice.
When you've been dealt a losing hand, then even a roll of the dice can't make things much worse,
Please no baton passing to Harris as heir apparent. Voters saw her up close in 2020 and her campaign crashed and burned. She doesn't handle tough questions or unscripted situations very well: she reacts with rote, even inane, verbiage and odd laughter, as if she can't or won't let you know what she really thinks. From a lawyer's viewpoint, even her famous Senatorial cross-examinations were more appearance than substance. Let's open the door to others. How about Whitmer/Moore?
He can hold out as long as he wants, outlasting them to the convention and beyond, and counting on them to rally around him when there's no other option. Not sure that's the wisest course, but he could do it.
It is wild how this got new life, and I'm looking forward to reading the definitive breakdown on it after the election. A bit more than a week ago, it looked like Biden had buried the palace coup attempt - were there some atrocious internal polls or something?
Whatever happens, I really hope it results in a Democratic win for the Presidency. Can you imagine the recriminations if it fails? I say that as someone who actually doesn't think a contentious convention would be the worst thing for a candidate to emerge out, if for some reason they can't just rally around Kamala as the replacement.
It is wild how this got new life...
It didn't get new life. It quieted for an appropriate interval while the nation dealt with and tried to process the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. it was obvious the effort to secure a more competitive ticket wasn't going to vanish, because it was obvious Joe Biden's overwhelming weakness as a candidate wasn't going to improve. Nancy Pelosi has supposedly been "working the phones" all along...
This week's horror show in Milwaukee has added urgency to that effort. Vance scares me like no other US politician in a long, long time—maybe even more than Trump himself.
And tonight, the party of Abraham Lincoln will nominate as its nominee a man who tried to overthrow the government.
This is a national emergency, and dealing with that emergency is infinitely more important than any one man's career, even a man as respected, admired and beloved as President Biden. He'll rightly go down in history as a great American hero if he makes way for younger leadership.
If the word “assassinate” means to commit murder for political reasons I’m not sure it applies in Trump’s case. From what I’ve seen at this point Crooks looks more like a mass shooter than an “assassin”. He would likely have tried the same thing if it were Biden or some other famous person speaking that day.
Looks that way. It was a crime of opportunity for a chaos agent. Great, now it sounds like an episode of Get Smart.
But Hinkley wasn't shooting at Reagan for political reasons either. Yes it appears the kid was a ticking time bomb mass shooter who decided he wanted to kill somebody famous.
Vance already said he'd be willing to do what Pence would not. That should be enough to scare anyone. I get really bad vibes from that guy. Even his smile is vaguely creepy and disturbing. He's the perfect partner for Trump. A man willing to do whatever he's told to do.
He's like something from a Stephen King novel. Truly creepy.
Just imagine him certifying the Electoral College victory of a Democratic presidential candidate in, January, 2029. I can't imagine it, either.
From what I've read, big donors -- especially from CA (tech) but also from NY (finance) -- had a major hand in revitalizing it. And unfortunately, it's not like they have any better political judgment, or immunity to fads or panic, than anyone else, but of course they're rich so they THINK they do, and their money talks loudly.
I await, of course, their resounding display of unity behind whomever replaces Biden, assuming he decides to step aside. I'll be holding my breath ...
Always, always a contentious convention results in a electoral loss for the party involved. This is going back to the modern convention era say going back to post Civil War era.
A ton of folks in panic mode need to look to history to guide their path. A lot of really bad decisions are being tossed about that will ensure a fascist victory.
This is beginning to look like a fait accompli. Makes me sick.
As for Adam Schiff, I’ve come to see him as a slimy rat-fucker. His Senate campaign was disgusting and I already figured I’d vote for him while holding my nose.
I'd place the blame with Biden's team. Biden needed to be running for President until all the bills that needed to pass were passed. Then he needed to step aside.
As for Schiff, the games he played during the primaries were slimy.
Top Democrats now believe Biden will exit:
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/18/president-biden-drop-out-election-democrats
Contracting Covid might provide face-saving cover for Biden, I think.
He's already had his doctor announce he has mild symptoms, which means he's not going to use it as an excuse to exit.
He's taking the antibody based prescription drug that is notorious for infection rebound.
Yeah, if Schumer and Jeffries (and Obama, metaphorically) have all gone to the WH to help Biden face reality, then yeah, he has to bow out or risk a complete shitshow at the convention. Downballot polling for Dems, particularly in Senate races, seems to be strong, so this is mostly likely about money -- both large and small donors. A bunch of PACs and big money donors have made it clear that they're sitting out until Biden is replaced. And that *will* eventually come back to hit Dems in local races.
It's depressing as a Dem to read all of this panicky bullshit from Kevin and most of his commentators here. Do you give a fuck about our Republic or not? Biden's debate performance wasn't nearly as bad as anyone has let on...don't believe, go back and listen to it without staring at the visuals. We was perfectly lucid and remains so. Ever think maybe he does so many events and has been historically gaffe prone that it's just being covered more closely than it deserves by media? But go ahead, continue panicking and watch Trump win a 2nd term. Bunch of turds. Dems need to sack up and fucking focus on the very real threat that Republicans and Trump are. Biden resigning or dropping out now hands them the country...stop being stupid.
When whoever runs against Trump loses Kevin and the anti-Biden commenters here will blame Biden for not dropping out/not dropping out sooner. Bet on it.
Lest you forget Biden himself suggested he would only be a one term President when he started running for President 4 years ago. He was fighting the age problem then when he was 4 years younger and looked and sounded much younger and sharper than he does now. He WAY overperformed what most people expected, myself included, as President and I love him for it but all the Biden supporters here just keep ignoring their eyes and ears. The man is no longer a capable candidate to defeat the orange menace.
If Biden were to graciouly step aside now I would praise him to the sky no matter the outcome in November. And if he does not, as Jasper has said elsewhere I will work as hard as I can to get him re-elected. But if he loses in November it will be hard to forget the discussions of the past month and foregive Joe his hubris.
I expected Biden to be a one term president because of his age and that he would be unable to get much done because of congress. Basically a place holder. But I also expected Trump to fade away.
Who has defeated Trump other than Biden? Trump has left a large trail of political corpses. Everyone who opposed him on the right has either bowed before him and kissed his ring or has been drummed out of the Republican Party. Who on the left has defeated him? Who do you think can? Harris? I supported Harris over Biden in 2020. I voted for her at every opportunity when she ran for office in California. I have zero confidence she can beat Trump. She proved herself as a not so great candidate on the national stage. I have no confidence in the electorate to accept a woman in general or a woman of color in particular.
Who else it there? Who can we get to rally the troops?
Watch this video, if you can stomach it.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/17/politics/video/biden-youtube-complex-interview-tapper-lead-digvid
Not. Perfectly. Lucid.
He never was. It was one of the reasons I didn’t vote for him in the primary in 2020.I thought he didn’t have a chance against Trump. Thank goodness I was wrong.
No-one here or anywhere else I can think of in the lefty blogosphere has said they would not vote, or vote for Trump, if Biden's still on the ballot in November. Biden still being on the ballot in November is what will almost certainly hand the WH to Trump and be the end of America, however. But Trump is still historically unpopular. If independents and even a few reasonable Republicans can be brought off the fence to support a fresh Dem ticket, he can't win.
Hearing stuff like Biden actually nailed the debate, the polls are all fake, Schumer and Pelosi are traitors, and that we need to shut up and just clap harder and it will all work out somehow is what's depressing me.
You must be spending too much time reading the comments on Daily Kos and TPM. The "wisdom" there is a mile wide and 6 inches deep. (last time I checked)
When the tectonic plates shift, they will adapt to new realities and transfer their enthusiasm to those available to receive it.
"Dems need to sack up and fucking focus on the very real threat that Republicans and Trump are." That they are doing exactlly that is the whole reason for the debate about Biden. "Biden resigning or dropping out now hands them the country" is an opinion, not the fact you think it is. People are allowed to have different ones without being called a bunch of turds.
+1
It was depressing when Howard Dean was forced to drop out of the primary because he made a weird noise instead of "yahoo" and the press kept mocking him for it. It was depressing when Hilary Clinton lost the 2016 election. It was depressing when the "new energy" candidate in that primary was Bernie Sanders, then in his 70s. It was depressing when in 2020, Democratic leaders were Joe Biden (then 78), Nancy Pelosi (then 80), and Chuck Schumer (then the youngster at 70). Kamala Harris will be 60 in the event she becomes the democratic candidate and then wins.
Democratic values and agenda align with the young. I wish more of the leadership would step aside and let all those youngsters (in their 50s and 60s) take charge instead. Schumer was in his teens during the Civil Rights movement.
I've defended Biden in these comments before, but it is clear the political press will NEVER let go of the age/dementia thing now. Every single time Biden misspeaks, it's more evidence he's past it; no matter how good a performance he puts in now, even another State of the Union-level performance, it'll trigger some weak "maybe he isn't that bad" stories followed by headlines again when he refers to a dead politician instead of the living world leader he meant.
If Democrats engage Donald Trump's campaign on the "Reality TV" level of the current status quo, they will lose. The man was shot at and insisted the Secret Service give him a moment for a photo-op projecting strength. He did a dictator standing on a balcony after being hospitalized with COVID to show strength. He has no chance of winning on matters of policy. Biden has been somewhere between good and great on policy for his whole presidency, but he doesn't seem able to push through the press "static" and no big step he could take has displaced this press narrative for more than a few days.
More to the point, if he isn't replaced until after the convention, the best chance of a big boost (for Harris, presumably) will have come and gone. She's going to need a lot of free publicity in order to win this campaign, although maybe just getting reliable democratic voters enthusiastic again will be enough.
Biden had his chance to change the narrative, and he's tried, but not only has he failed, he's failed so badly that the Republican convention and Trump almost being shot dead haven't managed to displace "Biden needs to step down" stories for more than a few days.
I am disgusted at the press and the behavior of a subset of democrats, and I'd be just as happy to see everyone in the party over 70 pass the reigns over to the next generation ASAP. Obama failed to fulfill his promise and inspire people to service or convince people that the government can genuinely improve their lives; even his signature achievement, the ACA, which has done tremendous good, somehow became a thing for Republicans to campaign against and not something for Democrats to campaign on.
You either accept reality, or change it. Biden hasn't shown that he can do the latter this time around. I decry the fact that Howard Dean's political career ended over sounding weird, while Trump's political career hasn't been ended by any of the things he's done, said, or accomplished while in office. It is also true that I've lost a lot of confidence in Biden's ability to do this difficult job for another four years.
But he's had weeks to demonstrate his leadership abilities since the debate and he's mostly been on a tour of "see, I'm not a doddering fool" with press coverage that can at best be described as unconvinced. If you can't convince people you can do a job THAT YOU ARE DOING AT THIS VERY MOMENT that isn't especially inspiring. "I don't have dementia" isn't a slogan to run for president on, it is a minimum requirement. I wish the supposedly "liberal media" weren't giving Trump a pass on so many other minimum requirements for the office, but controlling the news cycle is unfortunately a vital political skill these days, and Biden isn't interested in that. He was an excellent person to come in and repair some of the damage Trump dealt to the executive branch and the civil service. If he can't rise to this occasion, how many more weeks does he get to keep trying?
If Dean had been able to stay in his race despite the press coverage of his weird yell, it would have been a product of his political skill. If Biden can't convince people who already support him over Trump that he has a chance, after a certain point that will become a self-fulfilling prophecy, because if you cannot convince your friends and supporters, how can you convince undecided voters?
+1
Honestly I think that the Dems best choice is someone who the American public does not know too well. In straw polls, the "Generic Democrat" generally does better than any specific Democrat. Someone inoffensive/unslimed who people can feel comfortable voting for as a competent non-Trump alternative.
Something like an American Kier Starmer. I think Whitmer fits that bill.
Dean lost Iowa and New Hampshire before the scream. The scream was a punctuation mark on a campaign that was already over -- Dean himself has said that on more than one occasion. The scream, and it's coverage, makes a nice story, but it had nothing to do with him dropping out.
He wasn't gaffe prone, he was absolutely out of it, awful to watch.
He couldn't complete sentences.
He couldn't complete ideas, or thoughts.
He was incoherent.
Period.
Biden wanted the debate, he set the rules, he was going to show his SOTU self. He failed on national TV. He looked like a corpse balanced on its feet. He has the most wooden debating technique I’ve seen in over 50 years as a Dem voter. “The IDEA that I would blah blah.” “Number One … Number Two …” Trump mouthed lie after lie and Joe couldn’t effectively rebut any of them. “That’s a lot of malarkey. The fact is …” Then there were the gaffes. “That’s how we defeated Medicare.” Trump’s most devastating comment was “I don’t understand what he just said, and I don’t think he does either.” I was rooting for Biden, but that comment from a serial liar rang true. Biden will cost Dems the Senate and not a few House seats, including my own district, WA-3. He ran in 2020 promising to be a one-term transition. It’s way past time for Boomers and Pre-Boomers (Joe) to make way for some 40 to 60 year-olds, or young voters will stay home the way they did in 1968, handing the presidency to Tricky Dick with his “Plan to End the War.”
This is very sad in so many ways. Biden is one of the best D presidents of my lifetime domestically, and I'd say the best internationally, and probably a whole lot better these past 3-1/2 years than he'd have been at any earlier point in his career. By ordinary standards he's earned renomination and re-election many times over. This has all the makings of real tragedy-- Old Father Time always prevails, no matter how willing the spirit may be or how many years the ambition has been burning.
And now he has covid on top of everything. The writers' room is overdoing it by a country mile.
I don’t get it. “Why hasn't “Old Father Time” (or the voice of reason) prevailed against Trump?
Not much brain power to lose?
In a fair world it should be hitting him way harder than Biden, true enough. And it could be, in ways that don't show as much yet (except for extended nonsensical raving). He's what, 3-1/2 years behind Biden? Both parents lived past 90, iirc, and at least one had serious dementia for a long, long time. And we've never had a real medical report from him or his people, ever, just pure and obvious horseshit, even from the docs whose salaries we pay.
It is, just in different ways.
Old Father Adderall.
We just never get to see the crashes.
Oh eventually something will happen to Trump that will reveal how far he's actually declined. In the meantime, Fox and the rightwing media nuttosphere has put brainworms in half the country that has them convinced them that frothing, incoherent rage (or falling asleep reapeatedly at your own convention) is actually strength or something.
Because Biden did the fucking job, and the job is *hard*. It ages people. Anyone who's gone into the presidency and actually tried to do the job comes out the other job a helluva lot older than they would have otherwise.
Trump played at the job. He did the pomp and circumstance. But the actual job? Nah.
And at that age, someone working a fucking hard job from 78 to 81, vs. someone who just played at it from 73 to 77? Yeah, you're going to notice a difference.
yup.
look at bush-43 & obama entering the white house & leaving it.
the grecian formula ran out with reagan, apparently.
The only strength he has is as salesman and being completely disconnected from reality is a positive for that job.
+1
The best president of my lifetime. Provided he resigns.
He doesn't need to resign. Just say, "We've accomplished a lot in the three and a half years I've been president and I'm looking forward to accomplishing more. But as it turns out, I can't continue to perform the duties of the presidency while also running for president," or whatnot and throw his weight behind Harris. He can complete his term.
The Covid infection will make a good excuse for Biden to drop out of the campaign.
yeah, as soon as i heard about the covid diagnosis i thought it could be designed to give him an excuse to drop out without admitting he's doing it for cognitive reasons.
All those Republicans at the Republican convention wearing toilet paper on their ears.
They're crisis actors.
+1!
The Dumbo bandage *is* purest WWE, for sure.
it's the new hotness.
purple heart bandaids are so yesterday.
If Biden drops out and instructs his delegates to choose Harris - if this is even possible - there may be chance for Democrats. If this doesn't happen there will be chaos - how else could agreement be reached? Are all those Democrats agreed on this course, or do they have their own ideas? If the President is not in charge, who is? What if the NY Times doesn't agree on the chosen course? The media can blow things up but they can't put them together.
It remains amazing that Biden slipped so little in the national polls even after the disastrous debate performance, but clearly the trend line is going in the wrong direction and so I do hope he chooses wisely and withdraws. I agree that he has to be replaced by Harris, in part because I think that will be one of Biden's conditions. It honors his legacy and supports the Democratic argument that Biden has had one of the most successful presidencies in modern times. Picking someone else undermines that argument for retaining Democratic control.
Further, Democrats need women and voters of color to show up enthusiastically to win. God bless Joe, but as a conventional Catholic he is visibly uncomfortable discussing reproductive rights. With a dozen ballot initiatives to protect reproductive choice to help gin up turnout, Harris is the right person to make the case that Republicans want to role back the status of women (and minorities of all kinds) to that enjoyed in roughly 1960. Adding a running mate like NC Gov. Roy Cooper also can help make inroads in some key southern states like NC, VA and GA.
Finally, Biden can still campaign and urge those disappointed in his withdrawal to honor his legacy by supporting Harris. Dems also have Clinton and Obama to shore up the campaign. This is an extremely winnable race. Like Professor Allan Licthtman, I believed Biden was a near shoe-in before the debate and he might have remained so had he recovered. But he didn't and it's time to move on to victory not just for the party but for the country.
Very well said, thanks
+1
Well put.
The idea that If We Just Energize the Base of Women/Minorities/Etc Us Dems Are Unbeatable is a fallacy I think.
Dems need to get the folks in the middle who are not big fans of Trump but find the wokeness/DEIness of large parts of the Dem party as as even worse. Us Dems underestimate how much that pisses people off.
Kamala won't do that. And I have never seen her be an effective politician. I mean, honestly, the only reason she was on the ticket is that Clyburn demanded a Black Female for his decisive support in SC primaries and Kamala was like one of the few who was objectively qualified for the job in terms of experience. She loses to Trump badly. Someone like Gretchen Whitmer might have a chance.
I like Whitmer and what she's done, and staring down the militia groups like she did is a real strong point for her and also means she understands very close-up how the violence-prone organized rightist elements operate. Her biggest liabilities, as far as I know, are that she's hardly known outside the Great Lakes, and that she's the governor who closed down the churches during covid. There's said to still be huge resentment over that in southwestern Michigan (which of course is a republican stronghold), and whether that would affect swing voters in other states I have no idea.
Harris is still a puzzle. The version I liked and want to see more of was the one who grilled the scotus nominees. The version at the Dem debate, the one blaming Biden for busing, struck me as taking a victim stance and totally wrong for who she'd been up to then. I want her to pick a consistent presentation and persona.
It matters a lot what she does because if Biden does decline to run I think it has to be her, unless she decides to bow out. Which I don't think she'd do in a million years.
BTW, did Biden commit to a black woman vp choice before or after the South Carolina primary? I ask because I'm not so sure that was a Clyburn demand. Once Biden made that commitment, whenever it was, Harris was the only logical choice at the time, I thought.
That's how I remembered it, but on further research maybe I remembered wrong, or perhaps it was an unspoken agreement. Good catch.
I agree though that Kamala was pretty much the only conventionally qualified Black Woman out there; unfortunately there is a shortage of Black Women who have experience in the Senate or as a Governor or the other things that generally serve as reasonable prep for being president.
Only twice since presidential tickets were invented has a sitting vice president been elected president. Martin Van Buren in 1836 and GHWBush in 1988. And Biden is no Andrew Jackson or Ronald Reagan. Even Eisenhower couldn't get Nixon elected. As bad as you may think biden is, harris will get fewer votes.
Trump has an unbreachable ceiling in his polling that no one pays attention to.
He will never get to 50% in the popular vote if he ran for the next 300 years, this is why motivation is everything.
Look at the Republican party, all they have is motivation. They offer nothing else.
He will never get to 50% in the popular vote if he ran for the next 300 years, this is why motivation is everything.
Hillary Clinton prevailed over Trump by fully two percentage points—nearly three million votes IIRC—and he still won the Electoral College. The electorate's age-related doubts play a big role in Joe Biden's current travails, but there's little question that the Electoral College math makes his task a tougher one. If the polls are to believed. Biden probably needs to erase a roughly three point deficit between now and November to win the popular vote. But the EC math expands that number to more like five points.
Trump, in other words, doesn't need to win 50% of the vote. His ceiling, while low, is quite adequate for him to win if his opponent performs with sufficient weakness.
This is why none of the alternatives to Biden bring any advantages, even for Harris it would be like introducing a new person all of a sudden out of nowhere, and in many swing states she would just motivate the George Wallace voters.
Wrong. Harris brings several advantages:
1) Her unfavorables are significantly lower than Biden's.
2) Her main drawback as a candidate in 2020 was that she was perceived as "out of touch California liberal." And, while perhaps unfair, there was something to that: her main political experience up to that point was in beating other Democrats (in primaries). But Harris can actually do something to shore up her weaknesses. She was a tough prosector who can talk about her record putting murderers and gang members behind bars. She can run advertising on this stuff. She can announce centrist-y policy proposals. She can choose a centrist running mate and make appearances with him. And so on.
This is in contrast to Biden, whose principal weakness (age, infirmity) is unfixable.
3) For obvious reasons candidate fitness is on the minds of the elecrorate, but for equally obvious reasons, the current Democratic presumptive nominee can't effetively attack Trump on this issue. Kamala Harris, who is the prime of seasoned, effectivess nearly two decades younger than Trump, can draw sharp contrasts in this area. How great it would be to focus the electorate's fears about presidential brain health on the Republican!
4) She can raise a lot of money. Like it or not, at this point Biden's fundraising apparatus appears to have collapsed.
"Her unfavorable are significantly lower than Biden's." No they aren't. They are in fact worse than Biden's. And once the republicans get finished accusing her of covering up Biden's infirmity they will be stratospheric.
Unfortunately, we don't elect presidents via a popular vote. All he needs is a plurality of votes in a few key states, like he got in 2016, and he can win it again. His is, however, still broadly unpopular outside MAGAland, but people need more than just something to vote *against*. Putting a potted plant up against Trump is enough for the activist class, but that's not how most normie voters think.
How long can he continue to hold out?
As long as he wants to. Because he has the delegates and thus the nomination and all the "hints" in the world can't change that. This is his decision and his alone.
And just because "leaders" are abandoning him, it's still a fact. If anything it makes him more popular to stand up to them and the rich people and celebrities tell him to step down. Joe against the party. I like that posture and a I know voters out there do too.
So I hope he doesn't step down so their heads explode on Monday when he doesn't step down like they all say he will and their so-called journalism is just so much shit-stirring, strategic leaks, rumormongering and outright lies.
You know, this election is becoming more and more like 1948 every day. Democratic leaders abandoned Truman too (and he faced a third-party challenge from a crazy person). And look what happened.
Because he has the delegates and thus the nomination and all the "hints" in the world can't change that.
I doubt it's still the case that Biden's hold on his pledged delegates is still solid. Certainly national reporting suggests otherwise:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/18/us/politics/biden-delegates-democrats.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/17/california-democratic-delegates-private-chats-biden-00169210
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/biden-delegates-dnc-virtual-nomination-1235062993/
Jasper - This is slightly off topic, but I think you're likely right that Biden has PSP. PSP appears to be highly underdiagnosed, with a much higher incidence than commonly recognized. The clinical diagnostic criteria have very low sensitivity. Symptoms appear to match well (blepharospasm, etc., etc.) and don't match with Parkinson's disease.
How did you become aware of the possibility of PSP?
Truman was also a spry 64 at the time and the reason the election was so close and Democrats divided had nothing to do with questions about his fitness for office.
The crazy person being Henry Wallace or Strom Thurmond? But I get your point. Both drew votes away from the Dems and Truman won anyway. Still, aside from polling in 1948 being a learning excercise, Wikipedia says "Truman's feisty campaign style energized his base" while "Dewey ran a low-risk campaign and avoided directly criticizing Truman." The feistiness being on the other side this time, and both sides criticizing each other, I'm not sure it's a good parallel. Even if it showed, in part, the power of incumbency.
These four, when that are saying privately that Biden should not be the candidate, are they saying who should?
Uh, forever? Impeachment would be the only way to force him from office, and there’s no mechanism at all to force him from the nomination, even if he were to be impeached.
Stacy Abrams couldn't win in Georgia and she had every advantage.
If Biden is really determined to stay in, the only way to force him out is for the convention delegates to revolt. And those delegates are folks who were chosen by the Biden campaign to represent him, most of whom helped campaign for him.
Could they be convinced to dump him against his will? Conceivably, but I think it would require a bunch of Democratic luminaries -- Barack Obama, Nancy Pelosi, maybe others -- to go to the convention and make a forceful case. That would be an agonizing public spectacle and would almost certainly doom us in November no matter who ended up on the ticket.
I think, facing that prospect, the party would grit its teeth, accept Biden's nomination, and pray for a big polling miss or Trump to have a stroke or something. The only way to make this work is for Biden to step down of his own accord.
" That would be an agonizing public spectacle and would almost certainly doom us in November no matter who ended up on the ticket."
I could be a back room deal - telling Joe he doesn't have the support so........
It doesn't have to be done in public. The results would have to be publicized but NOT the deal itself. This could lead itself to all sorts of possibilities "The White House Physician, after talking to Joe & Jill concurred it would be in Joe's best interest to withdraw due to Joes advancing age"
Then the age problem become Trump's and Trumps alone! This has all sorts of possibilities.
The ONLY question is how will Harris do? Buttigieg would be a great VP choice but I would suggest Lloyd Austin current Sec of Defense. Strong on military leadership, black, highly qualified. It would pose a problem for many conservatives who are wishy washy on Trump!!!!
Drum's rather gleeful pursuit of this has been the grossest and dumbest thing he's ever been a part of.
This is so weird
I voted for Biden because like RZM I expected Biden to be a one termer. I expressly remember Biden saying something along these lines
But the thing is this - we are not talking about the right things here.
We are talking about "potentially failing" and " of showing signs of" not actual diagnosis by a professional and I have to believe that Biden has the absolute best care available.
We NEED to talk about accomplishments and policies but we are stuck in possibilities(Is Donald losing his mind? Does Joe have dementia?) and popularity. (Donald ahead in the latest republican love fest poll - no Joe's ahead, because DJT should've polled much higher)
I guess "it's the economy stupid" doesn't apply anymore? Instead we are treated to fumbled words, failed teleprompters, stumbles etc etc etc..........
I'm glad I don't have too many elections left in me. This has gotten all too tiresome
Biden never said he would be a one termer. People misinterpreted his statement that he viewed himself as being a transitional character from baby boomers to the generation after baby boomers.
What's the point of holding out? Bow out with some dignity, legacy is secure and you're not the best option to win, too many doubts and negatives with too many voters, in a crucial upcoming election.
Voters want to vote for someone who will be in prime form for the next 4 years, not who they wonder will even make it 4 years (and folks vote for the president, not the vice-president).
Plus switching horses keeps the media spotlight on the Dems from now until the election, and more sustained interest from public, it's a no-brainer even if it is just handed to Harris, though still not sure that's necessary (especially fund raising wise, as fresh enthusiasm for next 4 months plus most donors likely not just going to take $ back and not redonate).
To be fair to Biden, I think a core problem with his campaign has been the people running it.
- They've been so afraid of his old age that they've tried to hide it rather than embrace it. This made his debate performance all the more striking, triggering the push to get him off the ballot.
- They haven't been honest with him, telling him things he wants to hear rather than things he needs to hear.
- The contempt they've shown to other Democrats, by calling them "bedwetters" is the opposite of what they should have done if they wanted to avoid a break. Look right to these comment boards to see how people respond to such insults.
Switching out Biden with Harris, Harris should be wary of the people at the top of the campaign. They haven't shown the qualities and strategic thinking to win against the current Trump campaign.
+1
Jesus Fucking Christ. You can say shoulda woulda coulda, you can pontificate to your heart's content on could be's and counterfactuals. Which is just so much little dogs chasing their tails. At the end of the day, Biden has the votes, and you ... do not. Until that dynamic changes, I don't care what the confederacy of dunces has to say; this is nothing more than a very contrived, very cynical, very calculated ginned up media blitz in the hopes of generating enough public pressure to force their desired outcome.
No. Just no. Do not lose sight of the fact that there is, not one, but at least two issues at stake.