Here's the latest Trump-Biden polling:
It's impressive that Joe Biden has durably sustained only a 2-point drop since the debate. That's not good enough to maintain a serious chance of winning, but it's still kind of remarkable.
26 thoughts on “Biden remains two points behind Trump”
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It's not the candidate but the party approach to government. I'll vote for whoever is opposite Trump. I actually believe in integrity and honor unlike MAGA
Fair enough.
But the converse to that is surely that you don't get to complain about Trump's failings as a human being... What if the people who vote for him agree with those failings but prefer his policy stance?
Choosing a racist to implement your policy stance makes you racist. The people who vote for him don't agree that racism is a failing. Nor lying constantly.
Democrats don't want Trump to win--but they also want an effective President. Biden and his team have been remarkably effective, but he has slowed down quite a bit. He's always been more of a Senator then a President--and that's worked well so far. Be he needs to step aside and become a senior Statesman.
I voted for him in the primaries in my state because there was no viable alternative. But his late night talk show appearances scared me at the time. And his debate performance sealed the deal. Everyone has good days and bad days. But even on bad days, the President has to be able to rally to meet any given challenge. In his later interviews, he is also tired. He lost a step and can't quite catch himself like he used to. Still infinitely better than Trump's manic ramblings, but not where we need to be.
Biden mentioned he didn't watch the debate. He should.
It IS remarkable. Trump and friends are nearly delirious about the upcoming election, but when you consider how bad Biden looked in the debate, how ancient he looks whenever he's walking, how confused he often seems to be when he's talking, how so many members of his own party are publicly calling for him to step aside for the nomination, on top of people blaming him for high prices, Gaza, and the border, being down only 2 points is really quite amazing. Methinks Trump isn't as popular as he thinks he is. I think Biden will get smoked if he stays in, but I think almost any other mainstream Democrat has an excellent chance of beating Trump, as long as they are articulate, willing to fight hard and don't look 200 years old.
Yeah, the other day Axios (a right-leaning, but non-MAGA outlet, so take with whatever size of salt grain you think appropriate) was reporting that Trump was keeping mostly mum on calling for Biden to withraw because he believes he will win against him. Trump also supposedly thinks he would steamroll Kamala Harris, but some of his campaign advisers (quietly) aren't so sure and think she'd be a formidable opponent if she were moved to the top of the ticket. Harris polls best against Trump of any of the other possible (theoretical) alternatives.
"It's impressive that Joe Biden has durably sustained only a 2-point drop since the debate. That's not good enough to maintain a serious chance of winning."
I must have a really crappy memory, because I am pretty sure I can remember candidats who trailed by 2 points in mid-July and yet went on to win. Still,Kevin is usually pretty good with data, so if he says there's no serious chance of such a thing, I must be mistaken.
Came to say the same thing. I mean, the polls aren't good, but candidates have come back from worse. 2 points isn't what I would consider an irrecoverable drop. If he were down 20 points, then sure, you could say it's over.
If Trump were down 2 points at this stage, I certainly wouldn't be saying "He doesn't have a shot. No one needs to worry."
Yeah see elections in 1982, 1988, 1996 and 2004 and 2012.
+1
2 points nationwide in July is meaningless.
Easy explanation: Democrats have a hard floor and Biden is near it.
yes, and the hard floor is below Trump's hard ceiling.
It's almost like people already made up their minds about who to vote for.
Kamala Harris or JD Vance?
This is the FIRST presidential election where the VP choice(s) are MORE important than the choices for president!
Both Biden and Trump will be dead before the end of either of their terms,IMHO.
This is a bizarre world we live in.
I gotta agree Vog46, though Biden will be more hands on than Trump in his potential second term.
Noooooo, that's YOUR latest cherry picked Biden/Trump polling. Various pollsters and various aggregators have different results.
All that really matters is the polling in the battleground states (something that Hillary apparently forgot). Also, has the polls taken into account Orange Jesus's miraculous escape from death and the fist pump of defiance?
I would vote for Biden's dog instead of Trump, but every time Biden speaks publicly, there is a significant chance of another senior moment (or 2 or 3 moments). His soft and wispy voice is a dagger to the heart of his reelection.
"That's not good enough to maintain a serious chance of winning,"
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I do realize this in agreement with the 'smart guys in the media' take on things, but its still an obviously dumb statement.
We know that many past Pres. elections prove this to be false. We know that scores and scores of recent congressional elections also show this to be false.
But Kevin has a narrative to maintain. Gotta stick to the script.
It's not that a candidate can't come back from 2 points down. It's that Biden's incapable of making his case for a second term. He looks, sounds and acts ancient. He doesn't seem up to calling Trump out for his incessant lies. And it doesn't help that he gets so many things wrong himself. He's just an awful candidate. In 2020 the election was about Trump. Getting rid of Trump. This time the roles have reversed. It's about Biden and he's not going to win that.
Have there been any polls for Harris as presidential candidate? Frankly, I believe she would be a worse candidate than Biden.
She's outpolling Biden by a couple of points at the moment. Still not great, but better.
Sounds like you don't like women.
You expect more people to switch their vote from a senile old man with good intentions to a senile old man with seriously fucked up intentions?
And the margin of error is?
Can we stop with the "Biden has no serious chance of winning" gaslighting?
Biden is a nice guy who should have retired in 2018. He was elected in 2020 and had a decent 4 years as president because of who he succeeded and COVID. He should have gracefully stepped aside before giving the worst debate performance in the history of the debates. The absolute worst. He should step aside now.
That said if he somehow persists I’ll vote against the other guy every time.
This is not unusual as over the last 64 years of voting I’ve voted against more than for candidates for President,