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Britain Is the New Superstar of COVID-19 Eradication

The UK has obviously not had the greatest response to COVID-19, with erratic rules and indifferent leadership producing a cumulative mortality rate of nearly 1,900 per million, one of the worst in Europe. But a combination of their latest lockdowns and their very successful vaccination program has turned them into a superstar. Here's how their daily case rate compares to the best of Europe:

The UK's case rate is down to 25 per million (eight times better than ours) and their daily mortality rate is in the low double digits, six times better than ours.

The Nordic countries ex Sweden continue to be the overall stars, even though they don't get an awful lot of attention for it. But Britain is finally catching up. They're showing what can be done with one last month or two of stringent rules along with widespread vaccination. I sure wish we had demonstrated the self discipline to do the same.

31 thoughts on “Britain Is the New Superstar of COVID-19 Eradication

    1. ScentOfViolets

      Let's see, who do I believe Dr. Anthony Fauci or Shootie, usually falling off his bar stool before noon. Such a hard choice to make ...

    2. memyselfandi

      You have to be a truly evil monster to stick in the word arbitrary in there with no justification whatsoever. Lockdowns reduce cases, period.

  1. rick_jones

    The UK's case rate is down to 25 per million (eight times better than ours) and their daily mortality rate is in the low double digits, six times better than ours.

    A quixotic hope is this “times better” construct will go away. Is it really that difficult to say one-eighth and one-sixth of ?

  2. azumbrunn

    I think one problem is this: so long as we did not have a vaccine the solution was gong to be the vaccine, restrictions would be necessary in the mean time.

    Now we have the vaccine and it turns out that the endgame might be the most difficult part of dealing with the virus.

    Of course while Boris resembles Trump in many ways he did not use his own infection destructively as Trump did: he was open about the disease and his near death experience. It seems to have given him an authority that other leaders, such as Macron, have been lacking. And on the other hand: The UK's success in vaccinations came at the cost or the rest of the EU. The EU made two mistakes: They tried to negotiate an international agreement about vaccine use (to allow poor countries a fair chance; this was not really a mistake). Plus they tried to negotiate the price down which allowed egotists like Boris and Bibi to jump the line and grab the vaccine. Austerity never dies!

    1. wvmcl2

      The biggest difference between Tories like Johnson and Trump-style Republicans is that the Tories are not actively trying to undermine universal health care and public health. Johnson had nothing but praise for the NHS after his brush with Covid.

      Only in America is their a major political party dedicated to the goal of undermining public health and denying health care to millions of fellow citizens.

    2. Special Newb

      Uh, its a pandemic. You pay whatever it takes to care for your citizens and count the cost later.

      As for int'l agreement, for US we will have a glut of vaccine by June. At which point we can start shipping the good vaccines to poor countries. I have no issue with paying for 1 billion mRNA shots and donating them by the 100s of millions to every poor country in the western hemisphere. That seems like a faster way to get vaccines than novavax or whatever its called.

      1. HokieAnnie

        We'll just have to maneuver around the clauses in the contracts that the Trump administration negotiated that forbade the US from donating any excess doses to other countries. I'm hoping the public shaming and $$$ from the USG will get around the clauses.

        1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

          Those deals will look even worse when we find out El Jefe & Javanka gave vaccines intended for US residents to Qatar, United Arab Emirates, & Israel.

  3. skeptonomist

    The January peak was far worse in the UK than in the EU - maybe people in the UK were just scared into isolating. The UK was definitely ahead on vaccination, but that lead will probably disappear before long.

    The US had a late 2020-early 2021 peak even worse in total than the UK, but of course we are hopeless for partisan reasons.

  4. ChasB

    Comparing April 2020 incidences with April 2021 shows that despite Covid vaccine April 2021 incidences are higher except for UK.

    1. memyselfandi

      You have to be a truly evil monster to stick in the word arbitrary in there with no justification whatsoever. Lockdowns reduce cases, period.

  5. wvmcl2

    The biggest difference between Tories like Johnson and Trump-style Republicans is that the Tories are not actively trying to undermine universal health care and public health. Johnson had nothing but praise for the NHS after his brush with Covid.

    Only in America is their a major political party dedicated to the goal of undermining public health and denying health care to millions of fellow citizens.

  6. Maynard Handley

    US cumulative total deaths per million since this all started is 1695
    UK cumulative total deaths per million since this all started is 1874
    So...

    My point is, EVERYTHING covid related has shown into really sharp relief the extent to which people pick and choose data not to enlighten or understand, but to prove whatever point they have in mind. If the cumulative data don't prove the point, choose the most recent one month data. Or the forecast. Or the data for a city or state rather than the whole country. Or the data for 2020 ignoring 2021.
    Remember every country that was a darling until it wasn't? Czechia clearly. On the other side we have Sweden which supposedly was just terrible -- but is still ahead of the US. Even Brazil -- to hear certain segments of the press say it, they're one step away from social collapse with 1/3 dead or dying. Meanwhile, in reality, so far at least their cumulative deaths are essentially the same as (and slightly behind) the US. Thailand was doing really well -- they still are by any objective measure but appear to have substantially screwed up their vaccine program.

    You know that thing "Conservatives do" where they cherrypick statistics, like start and end dates, to show how great their policies were? Yeah, it's not just conservatives...

    I mean, jesus, when people are saying things like "Only in America is their a major political party dedicated to the goal of undermining public health and denying health care to millions of fellow citizens" that's fscking Protocols of Zion level insanity; that is not informed political debate.

    1. lawnorder

      "Only in America is their a major political party dedicated to the goal of undermining public health and denying health care to millions of fellow citizens" is not insanity, it's a straightforwardly accurate statement of objectively verified fact.

    2. Special Newb

      Sweden was terrible because it neighbors all similar in culture and demography did better even when accounting for population.

      Brazil is catching up to us very very fast. They were the second hardest hit (until India passed them) and the US was the first so even significantly better than America is still hideously bad. Terrible by any measure and without the vast resources America has to help fix mistakes.

      It was well known that until BoJo got sick he wanted to let it wash over the country to use a Trump phrase so they started in a very very deep hole. And there is no reason a country cannot get better or worse. The US certainly got better once Trump was out of office. To somehow say UK doing good at vaccines somehow does not fit with a terrible death toll is ignorant or dishonest.

    3. memyselfandi

      Talk about a classic example of projection. The person cherry picking their data is the garbage that wrote this comment. "n the other side we have Sweden which supposedly was just terrible -- but is still ahead of the US. " Sorry, but Sweden's response has been consistently described as terrible because it was terrible. The fact that the US has been consistently worse does not in any way refute that. Even this article points out that Sweden's response was and is terrible.

  7. golack

    Their first dose first strategy also may have helped. If they have the data on antibodies generated, maybe pushing back second doses to 6 weeks in needed. First responders and those at high risk can still stick to regular regimen if they've not been vaccinated yet.

    1. Jasper_in_Boston

      My sense the "first dose strategy" was definitely the way to go. In general Britain has been bolder about pushing the envelope in fighting the coronavirus. Another example is the UK's willingness to try human challenge trials. It was also quicker to green light and start vaccinations in the first place. The US has been insufficiently aggressive about fighting covid all along. That's the case even under Biden. Post-Trump, I think much of this low level of aggressiveness flows from lack of political unity, and the fact that much of public health policy in America has to be implemented by the states. If you know in advance that a large number of states simply aren't willing to play ball (and you've got no way to force them), there's little sense in trying to force the issue.

  8. pepsionice

    In the Germany case, there was a Christmas 'up-swing' and then some 'down-swing around Feb, then by early March....recent trending is suggesting more massive upswing in progress. Part of this is due to public frustrations with the shut-downs, more interest in travel (vacations), abundant socializing taking place. The chief worry now is the number of ICU beds being drawn up daily.

    1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

      I will only be concerned if the numbers grow so much the Germans have to convert the legacy death camps into makeshift inpatient pulmonary units.

  9. Scurra

    OK, I really, really hope that you don't end up having to eat your words on this. We (UK resident here) did extraordinarily well last year too - and then we opened up almost overnight, with a pointless test-and-trace effort that did nothing and insane short-term government programs like "Eat Out To Help Out" that generated great headlines but almost certainly also generated our second wave. (OK, sending university students criss-crossing the country wasn't smart either.)

    It's possible that folk will continue to spend the next six months understanding that social distancing and masks are still needed (indoors at least) but there's a serious danger that we're going to make the same mistake as we did last summer. Especially if people imagine that vaccinations solve everything. It's too much like getting into a car, driving off and then closing your eyes, assuming that the seatbelt will keep you alive so why worry?

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