Skip to content

14 thoughts on “Coronavirus Growth in Western Countries: May 28 Update”

          1. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

            Isn't Philadelphia hero Sly too busy keeping up with his fellow Pennsylvania MAGA Christian Pulisic's exploits in the Champions League?

  4. golack

    Ignoring OK catch-up; no state had 100 or more deaths/day over the past week
    Still have five states > 10 new cases/day/100K, CO on top at 15.7, but falling. WY is #3 at 11.3, but cases there are rising (infection rate 1.06--via CovidActNow.org). And WA is #2 with Seattle doing well, but Spokane having problems.

    Biden wants country to have at least 70% of adults at at least 1 dose of the vaccine before July. That will be close--need a vaccination rate of ca. 0.25% of population per day. Vaccine supplies are fine--it's getting it to where the people are and of course fear and misinformation.

    Ten states at 70% of adults vaccinated (1st dose, via CDC)
    Coming up: MD and CA, by next Sat, and WA possibly within the next week too.
    Two weeks out: DC, NY, MN
    Three weeks out: VA, IL, DE, CO
    Estimating 0.2% points per day for rate of vaccinations. The problem is that states with lower % vaccinated tend to have lower rates--though overall rates have picked up recently. TX is at 0.24% per day (via CovidActNow first dose metric, total population). If that holds for the adult population, 56.7% vaccinated (first dose, via CDC), than to get to 70%, 13.3% more of that population has to be vaccinated, so 55 days. So TX will miss Biden's deadline, but only by a few weeks.

  5. Jerry O'Brien

    Here's another look at post-vaccination trends in case fatality rate, and we're in a new phase, where that rate is climbing now, as the unvaccinated population is now becoming less heavy on low-risk persons.

    My method is to compare a week's total deaths with the corresponding week of case numbers at a 21-day lag.

    United States, March 31 week's deaths/March 10 week's cases = 1.70%
    United States, April 10 week's deaths/March 20 week's cases = 1.39%
    United States, April 17 week's deaths/March 27 week's cases = 1.23%
    United States, May 8 week's deaths/April 17 week's cases = 0.99%
    United States, May 28 week's deaths/May 7 week's cases = 1.23%

    A couple states in the Midwest:

    Illinois, March 31 deaths/March 10 cases = 1.53%
    Illinois, April 10 deaths/March 20 cases = 1.13%
    Illinois, April 17 deaths/March 27 cases = 1.11%
    Illinois, May 8 deaths/April 17 cases = 0.95%
    Illinois, May 29 deaths/May 8 cases = 1.24%

    Michigan, March 31 deaths/March 10 cases = 1.44%
    Michigan, April 10 deaths/March 20 cases = 1.45%
    Michigan, April 17 deaths/March 27 cases = 1.14%
    Michigan, May 8 deaths/April 17 cases = 0.91%
    Michigan, May 28 deaths/May 7 cases = 1.25%

Comments are closed.