Quick question: at this point, does anyone truly think Donald Trump doesn't want to get jailed for contempt? He's obviously angling pretty hard for it, and he likely thinks it would be a big campaign boost. He'd be just like Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King Jr.! The MAGA base would swoon over Donald heroically facing off with the Deep State and sticking up for his rights.
Either that or he really is literally unable to keep his yap shut. But I don't think so.
I don't quite agree. Actually being jailed would be an undeniable loss. He would actually be spanked by the teacher, in front of all his admiring little friends. It would be embarrassing.
He wants instead what he's getting now: to be threatened with jail. That way he gets to play the martyr -- see how unjust this is? how unfair they're being to me? but I stand tall! -- without suffering any visible loss (or actual pain).
He's tiptoed right up to the line, and crossed it a couple times and been brushed back for it, but since he was explicitly told he'd be spanked if he did it again, he hasn't. He's put a foot over, and held it in the air, but he hasn't set it down. Neither the prosecution nor the commentariat have flagged any posts or comments since he was threatened with jail time.
Think 6-year-old psychology -- by him and his admirers -- and you've got it about right. (Although I think also he doesn't quite have full control over himself -- witness his cursing at Daniels.)
"... I think also he doesn't quite have full control over himself ..'
talk about an understatement
I think this is correct. As much as his brain has turned to pudding, I think he still gets the risk-reward situation at work here. The benefits of defying the judge are very high. And the risk that the judge sends him to jail are very low. He is willing to take those odds. That being said, I'm not sure he could help himself if he wanted to.
Actually being jailed would be an undeniable loss. He would actually be spanked by the teacher, in front of all his admiring little friends. It would be embarrassing.
Agreed, but Trump may not see it that way.
He's far from a brilliant political strategist. I think he essentially stumbled into the presidency: in 2016 got very lucky in terms of national conditions/structural picture (divided primary field; Dems trying to hold White House for 3rd term; mediocre general election opponent; mini recession in the Upper Midwest). And since then he's basically been a shitbird political leader: the elections of 2018, 2020 and 2022 were all pretty bad for the GOP. Most of the special elections have been bad too. And Trump is still losing up to a quarter of the primary vote on an ongoing basis to Haley.
Trump's political instincts are very capable of being wrong. So yes, incarceration might well hurt him, but Trump might wrongly think jail time will help.
This. Trump is an accident of history. Unfortunately, once you become a presidential candidate--let alone president--a multibillion dollar industry is there to support and normalize whatever you do, so there is a very high floor to Trump's level of popular support.
But that is a very, very different thing than Trump himself being any good at this. He's not.
Unfortunately, once you become a _Repbublican_ presidential candidate--let alone a _Repbublican_ president--a multibillion dollar industry is there to support and normalize whatever you do ...
FIFY
jail time means no 24/7 press and no tweets. do you really think trump wants that?
I don't know what Trump wants, but I know what I want. Lock him up! show me the system works and there is Justice to be had.
That judge in Florida is shaking my faith in American Justice.
I agree. Boost Republican turnout in November through the roof.
Since the only candidates I despise more than Trump are Biden and Kennedy, I'm also perfectly happy if he gets killed in jail or dies of a heart attack or something. Guarantee a Republican landslide that will give us a filibuster proof majority in the Senate and a president who I will probably be pretty happy with!
"Since the only candidates I despise more than Trump are Biden and Kennedy"
You despise Biden? What for? In the spirit of good faith, I can certainly see policy disagreements with him if you, say, wish that he was cutting your taxes or giving (more) tax incentives to fossil energy or something. But despise? Seems weird.
Not if you're a MAGAt, as the poster pretty clearly is.
Based on MF's past posts my guess is that he despises Biden for several reasons:
1) His fairly progressive agenda of left of center economics has been shown to be effective. This could be the slow turning of the wheel away from the anti - guvment religious free market absolutism MF prays to.
2) He has been remarkably effective at creating a window for bi-partisan action - see funding for Ukraine.
3) He has exposed the dishonesty behind Trunp's immigration rhetoric.
4) And despite Biden's ongoing support for Israel, Biden's lack of full throated suppport of Netanyahu, indeed, the diplomatic and moral questioning, mild though they have been, have exposed the complete moral vacuum that is Benjamin Netanyahu and his supporters.
Ask Corn Pop or his coal miner relatives he borrowed from Neil Kinnock. He is a serial plagiarist and liar. He makes more and stupider mistakes than Dan Quayle. He would have been laughed out of politics decades ago if he was a Republican.
His craven refusal to fully support Israel in destroying Hamas and rescuing its people disgusts me.
His blatantly unconstitutional attempts to give away hundreds of billions of taxpayer money to student loan borrowers is grounds for impeachment.
I wouldn't piss on him if he was on fire.
Right, so I pretty much had you pegged though even so the level of vitriol is pretty impressive.
I guess you are right, we should cut the guy some slack. After all, his uncle was eaten by cannibals and his son Beau lost his life in Iraq.
Thumbs up.
I know Republicans aren't deterred by rape, forging business records, fomenting an insurrection, or mishandling top secret documents, so I don't expect a criminal conviction will be viewed negatively by his supporters.
I remember when being Republican meant more than being a Trump fanatic.
Never ever feed the troll. MF is a performative asshole. (MF is also probably an asshole in real life.)
????????????????????
Misfire, I wouldn't believe you if you said two plus two equals four without checking it out myself. And since I can't check out what you just claimed ...
a couple days ago someone suggested he be sentenced to pick up trash in an orange vest every wednesday for 6 weeks
the humiliation would be better than a couple days in prison
Trying to picture that … Between his orange skin and the orange jumpsuit he would look like a 250 pound traffic cone
based on smell and texture maybe call him president velveeta
????????????????????
I think the judge would do something like that if he were able. Unfortunately, New York law only allows for fines and/or jail for contempt; there are no other options.
I'm beginning to think Albany really needs to revise a lot of their laws, fines, and regulations. Having one of the world's biggest economic hubs in a place that only fines people $1000 for violating court orders seems less than optimal for everyone except the rich. (Of course, maybe that's exactly why NYC remains an economic hub...)
Or because NYC is an economic hub.
And the Secret Service guys might enjoy the day in the country.
Trump has probably been assured it'll be a comfortable condo or hotel room* (for all intents and purposes house arrest), so, yeah, I agree, he wants to be arrested. He thinks it'll benefit his campaign.
He should be careful what he hopes for, though, Trials are unpredictable things. Yes, the MAGA hordes will lap it up. But he doesn't need to convince them.
Incarceration opens up a line of attack—or perhaps energizes a line of attack that's always been there: Gee, it's too bad Donald hasn't been more careful in the conduct of his life. Will he really be able to run the country given all his legal problems? Being jailed will, in a word, raise doubts. He's a formidable, monster of a candidate, sure. But he hasn't yes suspended the laws of the universe. He lost in 2020, after all.
Anyway, this sort of critique might be effective with a 53 year old, white non college home healthcare aid in the exurbs of Grand Rapids (that is, persuadables in swing states—the kind of voter who will decide the election).
*I have no expertise on this subject, so maybe I'm wrong. But there's no way he's doing time on Riker's Island, right?
I agree that with regard to being jailed everything would depend on whether it is an actual jail cell or, as you say, more akin to house arrest. Would his security detail be allowed with him or would he have to be alone (there’s literally no chance he would have to share a cell)? Trump has always lived in luxury. A weekend stay would be crushing. Even just working there I had incarceration dreams long after I found other employment. County jails are smelly, dirty and loud, and being confined for even a short time would drive him nuts, I’m sure. He might be fantasizing heroically walking out of jail “to protect the constitution” but I think it could wreck him.
But I wouldn’t want to be the judge if Trump becomes President again. There is always that to consider.
Merchan can always move abroad if Trump becomes president again. There is the 2.5 month window between Election Day and Inauguration Day to get the fck out of the impending dictatorship. And judges tend to have enough wealth to afford "a fresh new start" in a country without extradition to the US.
"And judges tend to have enough wealth to afford 'a fresh new start' in a country without extradition to the US."
Not really. Judges aren't exactly high rollers. NY Supreme Court justices (and don't let the name fool you--the NY Supreme Court is the _trial_ court, not any sort of appellate thing) make a bit over $200k per year. Nothing to sneeze at, but also not all that much for somebody who works in NYC.
And AFAIK the options for non-rich Americans who wish to leave the country aren't exactly unlimited. Many expat Yanks have shorter term visas and so have to frequently leave and re-enter the country. It's obviously not impossible, but emigrating can be a royal PIA. I'd guess (this is really is just a wild guess) a prominent judge presiding over a Trump trial could get an overseas job offer from a university or similar institution. But if Trump wins, a lot of Americans are going to be scrambling to get the hell out of Dodge. And not all of them are going to be successful.
If Trump had to go to actual jail and then became President it wouldn’t surprise me if Trump sent Seal Team 6 to get him wherever he went.
Not a weekend though. He would claim it was to stop him from campaigning, ignoring the fact that he has used his days off mostly for golfing and having a Mara Lego event for wealthy idiots who bought his NFTs.
if that's the case and he is "jailed" via house arrest or some hotel or equivalent, then the whole exercise is pointless EXCEPT as a campaigning and fundraising boon to him. he'd hold a freaking rally at the location and maga idiots would stand vigil, all with 24/7 fox news coverage talking up trump as a modern day mandela.
Yes, Rikers eliminates those problems.
It seems like the strategy is to openly defy the courts and prove to himself as his devoted cult that he isnt bound by the law. Not getting jailed and proving you are above the law seems like a bigger payoff than a jail stay and more ammo for the Trump as victim marketing. On this latter point, I think the diehards already fully accept this....they dont need any actual punishment to accept this narrative.
This. Super-tough, etc.
Yep. Put his ass in jail for even one night, and a lot of people are gonna have acknowledge he ain't Superman after all. A jail sentence on conviction won't be such a scary precedent any more, either.
yeah, the big benefit of actual jail time would be putting an end to media stories stating he can't be jailed
of course appeals would take 20 years and he'd get to play the martyr that whole time with no actual punishment
The Buffoon's modus operandi has so far been to test the boundaries of patience of Justice, resulting in his hands being lightly tapped. Like a baby Chimpanzee, he'll get away with anything people let him get away with. People are so afraid of having their rulings and cases scrutinized that they've inadvertently signaled to the Gorilla that it's okay for him to do certain things others can't get away with.
I think if he is jailed, it's because he misjudged where the line was and a judge had the courage to tell him to STFU, not because the Bonobo wanted to be jailed.
I don't know if Trump is going to jail, but I would like to see the rule of law applied uniformly in this country.
On a slightly different note, I've seen his kind of behavior from some people in on-line forums, where they talk endlessly about how they have been treated very unfairly, and then go on to attack anyone who seems too weak to respond to their endless shitposting.
I'd like to know if there is a name for this kind of thing beyond, perhaps, "bullying"?
bullying sounds strong, which he loves; call it assholing
I wouldn't even do that--assholes are people who affect other people negatively but are themselves unaffacted, which still seems strong as well as inaccurate.
I'd say, call it hysterical flailing. A real businessman or political leader doesn't spend time posting tweets (or hoping other people will retweet what he posts on a dumpy little network)--they are too busy making money and/or leading. Trump can't do those things, so he whinges for attention.
I think that is just Narcissistic Personality Disorder.
Question: what is Narcissistic Personality Disorder?
Answer: We are all born with two traits, immaturity and open mindedness. By the time our bodies have fully matured, we've retained one and left the other one behind. Narcissistic Personality Disorder is one manifestation of adult immaturity. Specifically, it's a person who is convinced that they are more important than other people. The other manifestation is the person who, like a MAGA Republican, is convinced that their group is more important than other groups.
To Citizen Donald, if the MAGA Republican Party is not an opportunity to be exploited, then it is a threat to be neutralized, and otherwise utterly irrelevant.
Don't put him in jail, just remove him from the court room. Separate room in the courthouse, one-way audio/video feed. Then he can nap, fart, pick his nose. Whatever. His attorneys would probably prefer that.
I think you have the right to attend your own criminal trial. I don't know of any criminals who have been banned from their own trials, short of maybe jumping up and stabbing/choking/attacking the judge or perhaps a witness.
A defendant who conducts himself in so disorderly and disruptive a manner that his trial cannot be carried on with him in the courtroom may be removed from the courtroom if, after he has been warned by the court that he will be removed if he continues such conduct, he continues to engage in such conduct.
https://casetext.com › statute › sect...
Defendant's presence at trial, N.Y. Crim. Proc. Law § 340.50 - Casetext
Yeah, I actually think it's solidly option 2.
Well he posted something, then took it down a little later. Progress or different type of boundary pushing? Or does a lawyer have the keys to his account?
This is kind of interesting. If Merchan concludes that Trump cannot shut up, perhaps order his lawyers to obtain access to his accounts and hold them responsible for not immediately removing anything banned by the judge? The lawyers aren't going to want to go to Rikers. I assume there is some legal bargle reason for not doing this... as there appears to be keeping the judge from ordering internet and social media companies to lock Trump out of his accounts until the trial ends.
RFK, jr, his parasitic worm, it's remarkable location, and mercury poisoning,
https://www.rawstory.com/rfk-jr-brain-worm/
The parasitic worm got into his brain, ate something that didn't agree with it and died.
There is no part of this I can't understand.
I’m guessing it shot itself.
Or somebody stopped paying the cable bill and it died of ennui.
Maybe the worm got mercury poisoning.
Either that or he really is literally unable to keep his yap shut.
Oh, I think he really, literally is unable to keep his yap shut.
Clamping an ankle bracelet on him would probably make him just as nuts as jail but with less drama.
I think he has profound difficulties keeping his yap shut and doesn't actually want to go to jail. I think he's trying to convince himself that being sent to jail would be a yuge electoral and fundraising boost so that he can indulge his addiction to flapping his gums, but he hasn't managed it. If Trump really wanted to be in jail, he could have gotten a judge to send him to jail already.
I am curious. How would donnie get his "thoughts" out while in jail?
He obviously has impulse control issues. I doubt there is anything more to it than that.
I agree. He's like smokers who want to quit, but their hands keep lighting cigarettes. And he's a germaphobe. Jail is icky.
He has always thought he can do what he wants and there will be no consequences. This is just him doing that.
Best exchange in the testimony:
Necheles, in her cross-examination, was slashing. But Daniels was quick on her feet.
“Am I correct that you hate President Trump?”
“Yes,” Daniels admitted.
“And you want him to go to jail, right?”
“I want him to be held accountable.”
Donald Trump has never been held accountable for anything in any day of his life.
Even the most modern and sanitary cells have one salient feature: a toilet stool in plain sight from the doorway. And Trump knows that a picture of him dropping a deuce will net the photographer something in the high six figures.
They're just waiting to add this as a companion piece to the January 6 anthem at the Nuremberg rallies:
Though your Fuhrer's bound and gagged
And they've chained him to a chair
Won't you please come to Manhattan
Just to riot
One of the guests on one of the news shows suggested that the judge could impose a jail sentence, but have it not go into effect until after the trial is over (regardless of outcome). I think that would be the best of all options: He would be required to spend time in jail, but it would most likely happen after the election.
He's bluffing!
Instead of political scientists and lawyers, we should be looking to professional gamblers to guide us on this matter. The SOB does not want to spend a minute in jail, but his strategy, as always, is to con everyone into doing what he wants.
It seems to have worked with Judge Merchan. He said explicitly (and most unfortunately) that he is reluctant to treat trump the way anyone else would be treated simply because of his status. The bluff is working like a charm.
And as for this nonsensical fretting over Secret Service protection, see Brian Beutler's substack post about this: https://www.offmessage.net/p/donald-trump-not-entitled-to-secret-service?utm_campaign=email-half-post&r=2sauq&utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email.
I'd kind of like to see Congress codify this. When a former President is sent to jail, or convicted and sent to prison, he will lose all Secret Service protection immediately and for the remainder of his life.
They might want to do something about the Presidential pension, too, but that's just icing on the sordid cake.
I like much of Beutler's work, but I wish he'd gone into more detail on why he believes Trump's Secret Service protection is not obligatory. IANAL, but my layman's read of the Former Presidents Act does make such protection obligatory. There's certainly no carve-out for an ex-president having to spend a night in jail.
I could be wrong, but Beutler doesn't even support his assertion that he's right. I'd be interested to read his argument, and wish he'd shared it. But even if he is correct, I'd expect that (along with so much else) to get tied up in court. Hell, the corrupt SCOTUS is willing to take seriously arguments that the president can crime all he wants (because if you try to punish him, he'd just crime some more!).
If they're willing to argue that obviously bogus case, I have no doubt they'd push back against any attempt to deprive Trump of protection that it looks (to me) like he is legally entitled to.
I heard reports he's actually deleted some posts on his platform last weekend, so maybe he doesn't want to actually be jailed.
as golack mentioned above, in one case he posted something but took it down shortly after, so he's just probing to see what he can get away with
I DEFINATELY do not want Trump to be re-elected. I also, for these charges, do not want Trump to get jail time. Why?
1. Politically, putting Trump in jail, for this type of offense, will increase partisanship and has the potential to lead to violence. I do not this Trump going to jail for these charges will be accepted, without very active protest, from the right.
2. Careful about retribution. I have read that a similar type charge could have been brought against Hillary Clinton, and how her campaign paid for investigation into Trump and Russian. To be clear, I am not saying the two situations are the same: rather, I am saying that history has shown, once one side uses a weapon....
3. Honestly, of ALL the evil things Trump has done, paying off a porn star, in my world, is a big whatever. I suspect I am not alone in this perspective.
here's a little historical perspective
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_federal_politicians_convicted_of_crimes
lower-case - my basic point, if Trump goes to jail (versus getting a fine) for the porn star case, I will wager money that similar type charges are filed against multiple future presidents/candidates etc. It will become a political weapon...
the wiki article is full of political prosecutions and i don't recall any hand-wringing from republicans over any of the recent examples
the hand-wringing comes from the pseudo-centrist press pretending that the republicans are influenced by anything other than power politics
review the merrick garland situation if you need a refresher
lower-case my perspective is from a moral neutral, realpolitik point of view.
I sincerely fear, 'you put one of our politicians in jail for a minor offense. We are now going to find a minor violation someone on your side made, and put them in jail.'
Put Trump in jail for a significant crime, and not for the accounting treatment of a hush money payment, to a porn star.
This is obviously silly. Not prosecuting Trump isnt going to stop future people from taking any specific actions.
No one's talking (here) about jailing Trump for paying hush money. Kevin is discussing jailing Trump for repeated contempt of court. I'd imagine Merchan would throw him in jail for an afternoon, just to make a point.
And yes, the MAGAts will do their disingenuous squawking about slippery slopes and being jailed for having sex. But we don't have to buy into it. Certainly not to the extent of embracing their inaccurate framing before they've even bothered to make it.
Is the troll really telling us he knows nothing about Whitewater, the endless Ken Starr fishing expeditions, etc? He's normlally clueless enough that I almost believe him.
1. "The mafia kingpin is far too powerful to jail, Your Honor. Best to just let him keep criming than provoke retribution from his gang members." I believe lots of developing countries follow this model of jurisprudence, which is how places like Mexico now have vast territories in which lawlessness reigns.
2. Yes, the old "if you do it, I'll do it too" unilateral disarmament argument. A favorite of wifebeaters and bullies everywhere. "If only you give me everything I want first, I'll be nice to you forever." Because of course if Dems never pick up that weapon, Republicans will surely never pick up that weapon either. You must be great at playing board games too, Middleoftheroad"dem".
3. Lots of lesser people have gone to jail for things like lying on their paperwork (tax forms, immigration forms, court filings, etc.), which is what this case is really all about. Not sure why the upper classes can't do the same for lying on their paperwork too, but I'm sure they appreciate people like you looking the other way when they commit their "less serious" crimes.
Can't it be both?
I'm concerned by the too frequent rationale that we can't enforce the laws upon one Donald J Trump because of fear of violent reprisals. Crime is just fine, if you can hold a gun to the judge's head? We can't impose penalties for criminal behavior, because it might cause more criminal behavior?
Does that sound right? Does it sound like America, as it ought to be?
The best suggestion I've seen so far was in the NYT: Trump should pick up trash in the park as punishment for contempt of court. This has been done in the past with other defendants. I like the idea of news crews (including Fox, natch) following Trump (wearing a colorful jump suit) wielding a trash stick in Central Park. All part of his life of dedication to public service, so he wouldn't complain a bit, I'm sure.
Having the secret service agent watch his back in the shower would be funny. Wouldn’t want him to get a shiv in the back!
Once again I think y'all are giving him too much credit for actually having a strategy. He has no filter and his followers love him for that, so he's getting feedback that encourages him to "fight the man" and he responds to his fan base, who eats this stuff up.
Donald Trump is the divinely appointed Supreme Ruler of the Universe, and the only reason that he is in his current position is that he was too nice last time. In a show of benevolence, he failed to crush all those who might someday stand against him, and his current circumstances are proof of this. Merchan? What a fool he is to think that he holds sway over His Royal Flatulence! Trump is biding his time, and when the moment is right he will unleash plagues the likes of which this world has never seen!*
* And by "plagues," I mean Stephen Miller.
There is no possibility that Trump will be sent to an actual jail. The Secret Service would never allow this. He may be confined to his home for some period of time though.
I missed the part of the Constitution that gives the Secret Service authority to override the judiciary.
The Secret Service is part of the Treasury Department. They ultimately report to the CURRENT president. They are not some kind of Praetorian Guard that can override any other part of government.
They would legitimately want to provide protection for him. I've read suggestions that they might take over a while wing of a jail, or possibly have him incarcerated in a currently unused one.
A single occupant room in juvenile hall would do nicely, I think. And so fitting.
House arrest is not so unusual in this country. I despise Trump but I accept that fact that incarcerating a former president in an ordinary jail presents special problems. Also, IMO, the optics of home confinement are much better than locking him up on Rikers. Part of his confinement could be a prohibition on using the internet and freely communicating with anyone outside of the secret service or his DOC personnel. He would really hate this and would not the get to brag to his followers about how strong he is and how unfairly he's being treated.
I think that Donald Trump is really literally unable to keep his yap shut. There are many examples over the last few years of times when Trump would have been well advised to exercise his right to remain silent but did not do so.
His ability to exploit the legal and political system is simply maddening.
Trying to deal with him while also hewing to the rule of law is really difficult.
First we thought we should get him off social media and TV because it normalized him, now everyone seems to agree that is worse because the public forgets how awful he is.
Underreacting to his behavior in court is untenable, overreacting to his behavior in court just makes him more popular.
Taking him seriously is a farce. Not taking him seriously is a disaster.
I have a million critiques of how various folk in the legal system are doing things, but everyone is trying to get this right, and no matter what strategy they take, it backfires.
We have to keep up the work, and do our best and see it all through. But it is exhausting with him.
Trump, like all wealthy people, is used to getting away with stuff that peons would end up in jail for.