I almost forgot that today is YouGov poll day:
Since July 15, Harris has gained eight points compared to where Joe Biden was. Trump has gained two points. Harris's net favorability is +1% and Tim Walz's is even. Trump's is -13% and J.D. Vance's is -14%.
"Who do you think will win" currently favors Harris 42-32%. Trump voters seem to be giving up.
Harris won her debate with Trump by 56-27%.
In the generic congressional poll, Democrats are leading 47-43%.
OBVIOUSLY these so-called "polls" are RIGGED! Probably by ILLEGALS! Having opinions ILLEGALLY! And also UNFAIR! VERY UNFAIR!!!
When they can't retreat to economic royalism or outright racism, they revert to six-year-old tantrums. It is the Republican Way.
"Trump voters seem to be giving up."
Now, if only they can be convinced to move to a volcanic island somewhere in the Pacific.
Or Mars. Mars would be OK, too.
i hear venus is lovely this time of year
They can hitch a ride with Leon.
Might I recommend Amchitka? It's a volcanic island in the Pacific, and has lovely weather too.
Hawaii is all volcanic islands and also very Democratic. I guess they will have to find other ones.
Finding a good reason to vote Democrat in November is like finding water in the ocean. There is no longer a single good reason to vote Republican, only bad excuses. And the only good reason for not voting is because you can't do it legally.
The "who do you think will win" question is a proxy for the voter participation rate were the election held today, don't you suppose?
I'm not saying that Harris is going to win in a landslide, but everything is lining up for it ATM. Trump doesn't have shit for a ground game and the money just ain't coming in, even in the dark money side. To that point, he has a bit of a cognitive dissonance on strategy: He wants to appeal to his base to get them excited to vote but he has no ground operation to speak of and his schedule is low energy.
I'd like to know what that voter participation rate proxy is by party in Florida, Alaska, Iowa, and Texas -- call it the potential FAIT landslide strategy.
We're still too far out for these polls to mean anything, IMHO. I'd suggest that they won't really be converging on the only poll that counts until four weeks out, call it the beginning of October.
You think polling mania is bad now? You ain't seen nothin' yet.
Kamala's polls are more volatile than Trump's. Understandably Kamala voters are, at this stage, wishing to understand her better. Trump voters are staying with their candidate for now. Their minds are made up and they are sticking with their decision.
To be honest I view her as a standard Democrat. What exactly is it they don't know about her at this point?
New Quinnipiac poll has Harris up in 3 key states:
PA: +6
MI: +5
WI: +1 (?)
These three get her to 270.
All wonderful! But let us NEVER forget that whatever the stakes you and I and other rational Americans might feel, the stakes for Donald Trump include his personal FREEDOM.
So he and his minions will do ANYTHING to win. The better the polls look for Harris, the deeper in their trick bag they will dig. Don't put ANYTHING past them.
Only because they haven’t found her laptop yet. (Failing that, there will be violence at the polls. I
And I read that some election … hmmmm, let’s call them “skeptics” …. have been hired to work some election counts, replacing the workers who were chased away by the trump cult. We will see.)
The US House of Representatives will elect Donald Trump… with help from the Supreme Court. 😂
And with help from the MSM.
Naturally today's NY Times poll is the outlier, calling the race a toss-up (although giving Harris a clear lead in Pennsylvania, which could well be enough for her). It likes to favor Trump, in part to be balanced, in part to generate the horse-race excitement that sells.
In the same spirit, it led its debate coverage with, to paraphrase, Harris swayed pundits (meaning creeps) but won but it won't matter to the swing voters that count. And, if that were enough, it's kept that article at top right of its online U.S. and Politics pages for a week. And today it elevates that on the U.S. page to the top slot, at top left with a large photo.
Nate Cohn tries to explain poll results showing Harris up several points in Pennsylvania, but even nationally. Frankly, I think he’s chasing noise. This is why we have poll aggregation. The aggregated polls show Harris leading nationally by a larger margin than she leads in Pennsylvania, as one would expect for a swing state