Here is PCE inflation for November. It's close to zero:
As usual, this is month-over-month inflation adjusted to an annual rate. The core rate, which the Fed considers the key inflation figure to follow, is down to 2%, which is their official target. The headline rate is even lower at 1.3%.
(If you insist on the year-over-year rates, they were 5.5% for headline inflation and 4.7% for core inflation. They'll catch up to the monthly figures before long.)
This is terrific news and it confirms the low CPI inflation rates we saw a couple of weeks ago. And keep in mind that this happened all on its own. The Fed most likely had nothing to do with it. Unless I get really lazy, I'll have a post about that later in the morning.
These numbers use the incorrect method of measuring rents.
It looks at rents over the prior year instead of the prior month.
So the year over year numbers are overstated.
I don't know how it affects month over month numbers.
I can't believe it took you this long to write this up. Should have been popped out 2 hours earlier. 😉
By every conceivable metric, inflation is coming down.
However, you're missing the key point of the Fed tracking. It's not about where inflation is headed, it's about entrenched belief of the importance of V/U as it relates to the Phillips Curve. That continues to scare the Feds. Read what they write.
"(If you insist on the year-over-year rates" then you need to remember they are a measure of where inflation was 7 months ago (And if you believe Kevin's discussion of rent (30% of the CPI) that portion is measuring where inflation was 13 months ago. The Fed is going to trash the economy for ne good reason whatsoever. But then they are republicans and helping the GOP in 2024 is really there sole goal anyways.