Over at National Review, Kayla Bartsch says shoplifting is rampant:
The Left says retail crime is going down. The truth? Theft has become so pervasive — and ordinary — that retailers have simply stopped reporting it. The well-documented surge in shoplifting in the U.S. has....
Let's just stop right here. Bartsch specifically links "well-documented" to a recent report from the National Retail Federation. Here's what the report actually says about a surge in shoplifting:
On average, retailers reported inventory shrink of 1.6%, which is slightly up from last year and in line with shrink rates in 2019 and 2020.
And here's what NRF reports over the past few years show:
The 2023 NRF report is, in fact, full of alarming news. But the NRF's annual Retail Security Survey is always full of alarming news. The only section of the report with a more moderate tone is the section that presents the actual survey numbers.
Note that this is not a matter of whether retailers report theft. It's a survey. Everyone who participates provides an estimate of both their total shrink and the percentage of shrink due to shoplifting (generally around a third).
I confess that my brain is muddled on this subject. It's wise not to get sucked into moral panics led by the media, but at the same time it does seem as if there are signs of increased shoplifting. However, the survey numbers say there isn't, and other surveys confirm this.
So what's going on? One possibility is that retailers have been locking up more stuff, and that's kept shoplifting rates down. Another possibility is that shoplifting is up in New York City, which gets outsize attention in the national press. A third possibility is that nothing is going on. After all, the NRF's 2022 report suggested that spending on loss prevention had declined after adjusting for inflation.
I dunno. My best guess is that shoplifting is up in some high profile cities but is generally unchanged everywhere else. That's where the evidence seems to point, anyway.
so many drug stores have closed in my big pacific NW city, shoplifting must be down!
my local pharmacy was so poorly run the last few years I switched to Amazon's pharmacy
Or, of course, LIBRUL MEDIA JOE BIDEN BIG GUMMINT STATISTICS LIES because everyone KNOWS that those TERRIBLE Inner Cities -- the ones that haven't been burned to the ground by Antifa riots -- are just CRAWLING with Those People, and since all they have to do is soak up welfare paid for by Our Hard-Earned Tax Dollars, they STEAL, and also CARJACK and GANG WARS CRACK MURDER.
This is true! Greg Gutfield and Laura Ingraham said so, AND I read it on Facebook!
If shoplifting is up, it's because of the self-checkout registers. I've never intentionally shoplifted in my life, but I've missed scanning something in my cart & walked out with it more than once at a few different places.
I've also done that. It just balances out the times the register scanned regular produce as organic.
Also, as has been discussed all over the place, retailers don't want to hire people to actually work in the store, so there's little surveillance.
Lots of different types of property crimes are being conflated in the news as “shoplifting”. I’m always seeing stories about “shoplifting” and the video being shown is burglary, grand theft, and robbery. So “shrink” would account for everything but “shoplifting” might stay the same or even go down.
Great point. The flagrant smash and grabs are not shoplifting - it's organized to some extent.
Were these smash and grabs as common ten years ago. I don't think so.
They are not “shoplifting” and shouldn’t be talked about in the same breath. Smash and grabs are robberies. You might as well have a story about “shoplifting” and show a video of a bank being robbed.
Also, the current spate of flash mob smash and grabs are, in my opinion, a fad crime. In the early 80’s the fad crime was restaurant robberies where a group of robbers would rob the cash register and all of the patrons at a busy restaurant (think Pulp Fiction). You don’t hear about such crimes these days. For a while they were in the news as often as the current smash and grabs. These are crimes perpetrated by dumb people. Very dangerous, high profile, highly likely to get captured and sentenced harshly.
Were they? Who knows? Seems like robbery and property crime goes up and down but is it higher?
FBI says no, it's lower.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/191237/reported-property-crime-rate-in-the-us-since-1990/
I read that the NRF screwed up their shrinkage figures not long ago - it sounded to me that they wound up piling everything into the shoplifting category then piled all the other categories back in AGAIN - significantly overstating everything. After unraveling things they got what Kevin notes - shoplifting accounts for about a third of shrinkage.
Some years back I read that a good bit of shrinkage is attributed to employees - and the article included a comparison between Costco, Walmart, and Sams. Funny thing, Costco had a very low shrinkage rate, way below Walmart and Sams. Turns out paying decent wages, cross training employees so they can quickly shift to different tasks, and emphasizing teamwork makes people happy and less likely to steal.
And rapidly opening new registers as shopper traffic ebbs and flows keeps the customers happy. And the Costco warehouse stores I use will go from half the registers open to everything open in a few minutes. People move from cleaning, putting out new merch, tidying shelves to registers and packing carts. Same thing happens at self-checkout. Costco always has a good crew of associates there, to run up to help with bulky goods, verify id for liquor purchases as you wheel up to the self-checkout register, etc.
Take this as a data set of one. In the last couple of years, a couple local stores (CVS and my local grocery store) have started to lock items behind the register, versus leaving these items on the shelf. Thus, I am reminded of shoplifting every time I shop...
The extent to which this is the case in central San Francisco is horrifying.
What I saw there a week ago was really depressing, compared to any other city I've been in (including Manhattan).
I don't think national statistics are at all useful in this case. People are concerned about a few particular cities (SF primarily, Seattle apparently secondarily). And refusing to engage with that fact by throwing out irrelevant other facts (as Kevin is doing here) is not a good look.
I have no idea what's really happening in SF. But facts we do know include
- real shops have shut down. Presumably they weren't just making up stories about crime made them unprofitable
- drug stores have basically everything even mildly expensive under lock and key
- other expensive stores (malls, jewelry stores, etc) persist alongside Walgreens
To me this suggests a mindset where a critical mass of people feel they're justified in shoplifting (ie taking daily use stuff of the sort you find at Walgreens or Target) but not enough of a critical mass feel that about taking nice clothes or jewelry?
Or perhaps Bloomingdales and the jewelry stores have massive, but not obvious surveillance systems that Walgreens can't afford?
They were making it up.
They had bought out the competing stores, so now they were competing against themselves.
Add to that a drop in workers and residents in the city and boom, unprofitable.
The upshot of the "NRF Report" on shoplifting, according to a piece on Radiolab a week or two ago is that the NRF Report has one main purpose, which is to help large retailers lobby for increased police protection.
You don't get that without "alarming news."
It seems a subset of the "well, look how many sources there are!' leading directly to "have to check the agenda of every source."
Go get ‘em! Fake news!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/06/business/oakland-crime-business/index.html
New York
CNN
—
Violent crime and other felonies fell in 2023 in America’s biggest cities. They increased in Oakland.
Robberies grew 38% last year in Oakland, according to police data. Burglaries increased 23%. Motor vehicle theft jumped 44%. Roughly one of every 30 Oakland residents had a car stolen last year, according to a San Francisco Chronicle analysis.
On Tuesday, California Gov. Gavin Newsom announced he was taking action, deploying 120 California Highway Patrol officers to Oakland and the surrounding area to conduct a law enforcement surge operation. The aim: to crack down on crime, including vehicle theft, retail theft and violent crime.
More fake news!
https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/05/us/washington-dc-crime-carjackings/index.html
Washington, DC
CNN
—
Homicides, carjackings and robberies across Washington, DC, have affected prominent politicians and regular residents alike, leaving many in the nation’s capital fearful of the rising crime.
While other major cities saw a drop in violent crimes, the nation’s capital suffered a 39% increase last year.
On Saturday, former Trump official Mike Gill died in the hospital days after being shot in his car while he waited for his wife to leave work in an area with ritzy hotels and shops a few blocks from the White House.
I guess AI bots are terrorists.
CNN
—
A children’s hospital in Chicago is still trying to restore its computer systems nearly a week after a cybersecurity incident prompted it to shut down its network. Lurie Children’s Hospital says the outage has affected email, phones and some other electronic systems.
This guy again. I would never both trying to debate him, but for everyone else reading this: Did you notice how he never even tries to make a point? I assume he doesn't because people would laugh at him, so instead he just rattles off reports.
Auto theft has been on the rise for a couple of years. You'd think he'd be critical of police for taking so long to respond to the increase, but not a word. I guess that would be too much like making a point so he doesn't bother.
Attempts to minimize the impact of violent crime and theft are not helpful. A crime victim isn't interested in having their experience minimized or exaggerated for political purposes. Whatever the rate of violent crime across the whole country, there are places where it is bad (i.e. Oakland and DC). Democrats have no answer to that except, it seems, to turn the perpetrators into victims and the victims into oppressors.
And then there are these other things like hacking and ransomware which never existed before and will, perhaps, be supercharged by Mr. Drum's AI buddies.
That's the point.
And he tried to make a point and everyone laughed at him. I'm sure all the people reading this that are in touch with reality are very glad that crime is down so much (seriously, it is amazing how much things have gone down). Of course in fantasy land, being glad there is so much less crime is the same as minimizing victims for political purposes - I mean it is obvious that they are the same thing so I don't know why anyone would bother saying it.
And I'm sure everyone can agree that Democrats have no answer to crime, except of course that Democrats have overseen the massive reductions in crime over the past 30 years. So apparently they can keep doing what they've been doing and things will most likely continue to get better. Three cheers to the Democrats for making crime a third or even a fifth of what it used to be.
Lying about crime rates by pointing out hot spots which are statistical outliers to promote bigoted policies is a problem.
Its the internet version of the nutcase on the street who is desperate, desperate for attention. Just try to move along....maybe nod, but dont make eye contact.
His point is obvious. There are definitely some large cities where crime has increased substantially. The national statistics don't change that.
Your interpretation is up to you, but those facts exist and many consider them interesting.
Do they, for example, correlate with
- cities run by woke administrations OR
- cities with lots of illegals?
Both sides come off look pretty bad here. The Democrats by what they do at the municipal level, the Republicans by the way they obsess over what appears to be a non-issue (at least as regards the causes of most crime in the US).
Wow! You really have no idea what you're talking about. He was not pointing that out. If someone comes here and posts that bears shit in the woods, they are not doing that to set the record straight. There are no people that think differently. They are posting it so they can convince themselves that they are better than the imaginary people that live in their fantasies. There is no interpreting to do.
And Wow! Just Wow! You really buy the Fox News line on crime without any critical thinking. The states with the highest murder rates are Red States. The cities run by Democrats have seen the biggest reductions in crime. Cities run by Republicans have the same problems everyone else does. Immigrants, legal and illegal, are associated with lower crime rates. As someone who is completely out of touch with reality once said: Your interpretation is up to you, but those facts exist and many consider them interesting.
Of course if you'd wanted to know about crime you would have already learned about it. I, like most of the people here along with every Democratic leader in the country, want more resources put into communities with higher crime. If auto theft goes up, police should spend more time fighting it. Interpret that.
Perhaps the above is true. BUT
Here's a hint:
- when someone talks about CITIES and specifically complains about diversionary statistics that are not CITY-related, then perhas bringing up STATE statistics is not the greatest idea?
You could do something to convince me by showing some sort of convincing statistics re the point I raised, about city crime statistics. Or you could continue to rant about Fox News. Your choice.
Oakland is tiny, bigot.
could be better detection since there's a lot more video cameras in stores these days
my home depot has cameras on every register so they can associate a face and payment card with every transaction and they put the output from that camera right on the customer's checkout screen so you're well aware that they've got your mug in their system
my home depot just fenced and padlocked about 60% of their hand tools.
want a socket end? pliers? utility knife? need a store employee and they MUST take the item to a staffed register.
If spending on security slightly declined, is it surprising that inventory shrink slightly rose? In bigger cities more items are locked up now, which is an inconvenience to customers so raises attention, but these are generally the pricier items so one can imagine the shrink in total dollars has risen less or even dropped.
There's a vested political interest for a particular segment of American society to be overly hysterical about minor things, mostly because they want to go back to the good ol days of white suburban privilege, while people who live in big cities aren't really tripping all that much. The suburbanite and rural folk doth complain too much about realities that don't really impact them all that much, just overactive imaginations some probably genuine and most just cynical (truth and reality aren't really all that important to them anymore, at least against tribal loyalty and ideology).
It's a shame.
Also, in a time of heightened inflation when big convenience stores like CVS and Walgreens are pinching pennies on security and otherwise probably engaging in some price gouging, it's also not hard to imagine struggling customers doing a little more pilfering of necessities, as obviously no one is making a living or much profit habitually shoplifting from CVS/Walgreens/etc.
Glad you put in the point that only 1/3 of shrink is due to shoplifting. Worked on the CD packaging campaign that saved the jewel box from the ridiculous 'EcoPak' 30 years ago, and that was the case then - most shrinkage is internal.
Also, have you noticed that CVS (at least the ones here in Brooklyn) lock up the brand-name OTC medicines but not their house brand? Which is either a strong case for brand value or a cynical ploy to boost own-label products. Especially when combined with one person to open all the locked sections in the store.
Surge in flash mobs?
Great for TV, and certainly bad for the stores that are hit--but overall a small percentage of theft. However, a good excuse for everyone to raise prices.
More realistic--people running out with a bag of name brand detergent/deodorant/etc. and selling those items online. Now is that much worse now than it has been over the past number of years? Don't know. Maybe all the pharmacies will turn into automats.
Anyone who's worked in retail for a while knows that much if not most of the shrinkage goes out the back door. Employee will put an 'empty' box outside in the trash; a minute later their partner retrieves it with the goods. Fake layaways with "paid up" slips. Expensive items in store brand packaging. Switched tags and cashiers in cahoots.
Chronically understaffed stores help a lot. The manager reports the minimal number necessary to run the store, and management tells them to send home half of the staff.
Decades ago when I was working at DEC in MA, I got into a conversation with the head of security (I was working on a reporting system he used). He and his then boss started to get suspicious about one of the janitors who would regularly take boxes out in a wheelbarrow to be broken down and taken to the land fill. (This was well before wider spread recycling started.)
They'd check the boxes - always empty. It was driving them crazy. Finally they sat down with him and said they KNEW he was doing SOMETHING, but in the interest of maintaining their sanity, if he told them what was going they'd bury the problem.
He was stealing the wheel barrows. DEC only bought the best - and he could resell them for a lot. Talk about a really good variant of "The Purloined Letter" mystery - a brazen theft carried out in plain sight!
That's such a good story one almost wonders whether it is too good.
I mean, the story is silent on the number of wheel barrows missing but unlike, say, a screwdriver, a wheel barrow is a fairly large item which any store would only expect to have so many, and it would be kind of obvious I would think. But nevertheless, nice post. 🙂
The local Krogers chain of grocery stores recently downsized/eliminated their entire Security dept. a couple of years back. Surely if they (and these other companies) are really losing money and not just crying crocodile tears over this then they'd be, you know, hiring more Security staff?
It's all a bunch of hooey, summoning up the toothless specter of CRIIIIME.
Our grocery store keeps all the liquor locked up. You used to have to call someone, they come unlock it, give you the bottle and you put it in your cart. Now they walk it up to the register and actually ring it up on the self checkout.
I don't know man. I see people walk into harbor freight every time I am there, and they just grab something and walk out. This is just personal anecdote data, but something has changed in the brazenness of it. Here in the PNW, there is no prosecution of property crime, so I guess if thats your thing just go for it and you most likely will not face any consequences.
Same thing for car tabs. The police have stopped pulling people over for expired tabs. Years ago you would get pulled over so fast if a cop saw expired tabs. Do I need them? Should I pay hundreds of dollars for tabs if there is no penalty for not having them?
Crazy.
>>for car tabs<<
If what you are talking about here are those yearly registration stickers I would note that those are often stolen. A police officer with a computer in his vehicle can easily look up and if it was paid and not bother stopping the vehicle. Or stop it as an excuse to check for other things if they feel like it.
Maybe. But, 1) I highly doubt the majority of people without current "tabs" had them stolen as opposed to they just didn't renew them, and, 2) Some cities have said they are no longer pulling people over due to expired registrations.
I've had a cop follow me for 2 miles just going the same direction right behind me. Before, it would be an immediate ticket. Now they just could care less or have been told to not oppress the populace by enforcing car licensing laws. Its just weird. I am also, 50ish, white, bald, newer truck so maybe im not the target audience for the police.
Ahh, yes, the 'there's no prosecution' lie,
I was using the self-checkout at a grocery store a few days ago when the register suddenly played a video of myself allegedly shoplifting by not scanning some items, even though I actually had scanned everything. After the scare video played I continued checking out and left. I actually worked my way through college as a grocery store checker, so a lot of times I will scan the same item several times if I have multiple units of the same item, in lieu of scanning each unit separately. I suppose that's what the self-checkout algorithm picked up on. Efficiency is stealing!
Important note:
"Shrink" does NOT equal shoplifting.
Shrink is literally just the difference between how much stuff is bought versus how much is sold.
The difference can be employee theft, damage, accounting error or any other explanation.
Stores almost never have any clear way of knowing how to allocate those categories.
Maybe they can't allocate every dollar of shrinkage but they see these people running out of the store with handfuls of merchandise. And they would know if they have damaged merchandise so that should be pretty close to 100% allocated correctly.
Ahh, the other racist claiming an increase in shoplifting without evidence.
Why is that?
This whole discussion has gotten derailed into an argument about what constitutes shoplifting. The initial claim that retail theft is up, regardless of whether it's shoplifting, smash-and-grab, inside jobs or what have you, still should be addressed.
Well, A) there's no evidence it's up, and B) they claim it's because petty theft is a misdemeanor instead of a felony.
So yeah, it matters.
When you have retailers announcing store closures due to increases in theft and unsafe working conditions for their employees, it seems silly to argue that retail theft is not increasing. Maybe it's not on the national level. Certainly it's probably not in every city and town in the country. But to sit there and say that it's a non-issue is just sticking your head in the sand.
I can understand that in certain areas...but a lot of times it is also used as an excuse.
You're starting from the faulty assumption that they're not lying. There's a number of stories to be found quickly about such things, such as: https://www.cnn.com/2023/10/27/business/crime-spree-retailers-are-actually-overstating-the-extent-of-theft-report-says/index.html
Quote
The analysts noted that overall shrink — merchandise losses due to external and internal theft, damaged products, inventory mismanagement and other errors — makes up just 1.5% to 2% of retailers’ sales. That percentage has remained steady for years, despite retailers sounding the alarm more than ever about theft.
This hit to profits is relatively small and fleeting — not reason enough alone to close stores according to the analysts. At nine major retailers that have increasingly cited the rising impact of theft, shrink as a percentage of sales increased just 0.4% in 2022, they found.
This was a better response than it deserved.
Is it? When they're reducing security budgets, not reporting more theft, etc?