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My prediction for new jobs

Published on 18 Comments on My prediction for new jobs

Friday is new jobs day. Here's my prediction:

  • If new jobs are higher than expected, it's an indication that the economy is running too hot. This is producing a demand-driven inflationary spiral that needs to be stomped on.
  • If new jobs are lower than expected, it's an indication that workers are holding out for higher wages. We are in danger of another '70s-style wage-price inflationary spiral that needs to be stomped on.
  • If new jobs come in exactly as expected, it's an indication of stagflation. The flation part of that needs to be immediately stomped on.

FYI: The consensus for the June report is 250,000 new jobs.

18 thoughts on “My prediction for new jobs”

    1. ScentOfViolets

      And Capital got it, by which I mean the systematic erosion of any sort of bargaining power the commoners brought to the table when it came to negotiations over who got how much of what when divvying up the loot.

    2. KawSunflower

      OT, but because I only discovered that my first update to the WordPress app today resulted in my finally having the option to like a post - there's a tiny star to the right of the reply option.

      Believe that you are the one who mentioned that there was this option, but it wasn't available on Jabberwocking, where the panel of comments options underneath the avatar (only when in landscape mode on my cellphone!) had disappeared. Think I then found a way to do it on the WordPress website, but seldom use it. So this is a belated thank-you, but one w/o a definite explanation.

  3. Altoid

    IOW, when they got their whompin' hammer out, every data point looks like a nail what needs whompin'. Sounds about right.

  4. D_Ohrk_E1

    LOL

    Nonetheless, V/U (total vacancies / total unemployed persons = labor tightness) is very high, measured at roughly 1.8 last month. There is a lot of room to accommodate higher Fed rates, no matter how one wants to justify it, without detrimentally affecting nominal GDP.

  6. ScentOfViolets

    Here's my favorite Waldman quote on the subject again:

    "But the preferences of developed, aging polities — first Japan, now the United States and Europe — are obvious to a dispassionate observer. Their overwhelming priority is to protect the purchasing power of incumbent creditors. That’s it. That’s everything. All other considerations are secondary. These preferences are reflected in what the polities do, how they behave. They swoop in with incredible speed and force to bail out the financial sectors in which creditors are invested, trampling over prior norms and laws as necessary. The same preferences are reflected in what the polities omit to do. They do not pursue monetary policy with sufficient force to ensure expenditure growth even at risk of inflation. They do not pursue fiscal policy with sufficient force to ensure employment even at risk of inflation. They remain forever vigilant that neither monetary ease nor fiscal profligacy engender inflation. The tepid policy experiments that are occasionally embarked upon they sabotage at the very first hint of inflation. The purchasing power of holders of nominal debt must not be put at risk. That is the overriding preference, in context of which observed behavior is rational."

    In fact, it's probably my favorite quote on the subject, period.

  7. MontyTheClipArtMongoose

    Sounds like Kevin Drum's Warren-Maddox Democrat self is preaching from the "Thus is Bad News for Biden" hymnal of the Sulzberger Advertiser.

  9. arghasnarg

    Personally, this is the point where I'd like to see a bit of honesty from the talking heads. (I know.)

    "The Fed's policy is now to try to force those in marginal jobs out of the workforce, and to lower everyone else's earning power."

  10. dausuul

    New York Times headline: "Strong Jobs Data in June Ease Recession Fears but Keeps Pressure on Fed."

    Nailed it.

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