So here I am this morning, reading an LA Times piece about people migrating out of California to places like Texas. This is old news, but the twist this time is that affluent people are moving away at higher rates than before. This is chalked up to California's high tax rates, but I'm thinking: hold on, isn't it more the housing market than taxes? So I head over to FRED to check things out:
It turns out that home prices in LA and San Francisco have gone up less than home prices in Dallas.¹ Did you know that? I didn't. Whatever happened to Texas's famously reasonable housing market, thanks to wide-open plains and lax zoning rules? Gone, I guess. This is why it's good to check your assumptions every once in a while. Things change.
¹Although keep in mind that while home prices may be rising in Dallas, they're still way lower than LA ($400,000 vs. $1 million). Taxes in Texas aren't really as low as they like to claim, but homes really are a lot cheaper.
here's why you should never give comcast direct access to a bank account for your autopay
it's galling that they'll charge you an extra $5/month for a non-bank autopay, but when they get hacked and the romanians get your bank account number it's nothing but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Comcast says hackers stole data of close to 36 million Xfinity customers
https://techcrunch.com/2023/12/19/comcast-xfinity-hackers-36-million-customers/
I just got paid 7268 Dollars Working off my Laptop this month. And if you think that’s cool, My Divorced cs22 friend has twin toddlers and made 0ver $ 13892 her first m0nth. It feels so good making so much money when other people have to work for so vb-10 much less.
This is what I do……………..> > > https://dailyincome97.blogspot.com/
Housing prices have many dynamics including supply/demand, the local economy, interest rates, broad consumer confidence, availability of debt etc.
One factor, I suspect, are folks moving from more expensive places, such as California, and buying relative 'bargain' houses with lots of cash. Thus, relatively rich, new buyers could drive up local housing prices in a market...
Pretty much. You can sell a tiny, 3br, $1.5 million bungalow in Santa Monica and pay cash for a really nice, 3000 sq ft McMansion with a pool and 4-car garage in TX or UT or ID and have enough left over to send your kids to college, fund a nicer retirement, etc. I can see why that's kind of tempting to a lot of people.
Of course it also means you're stuck living in suburban Texas or wherever, which may have other drawbacks...
More of these folks should be looking at the Pacific Northwest. Washington has no state income tax and plenty of tech jobs.
Along with sky high housing prices in the Seattle area.
That may be true…..but housing only part of the issue. It’s a state that supports book bannings, jailing of immigrants—unless of course they are providing cheap labor on Texas farms, guns everywhere, state sponsored racism and misogyny. If you want to tolerate that then by all means move there.
Exactly. If everyone who says there are going to move out of the hell scape of California would actually do so, traffic in California and housing prices would go down.
Moved to Texas decades ago to take a job, and I've liked it here. But the politics have gotten much worse over time. However, I don't want to leave and cede the place to the craziest of the right wingers. (My wife sometimes feels differently, and she was born here.)
A reminder on the 2020 election in Texas: Trump 52.1% (5,890,347) and Biden 46.5%. (5,259,126). So there are a lot of non-MAGA people here. State government doesn't reflect the people here very well. RCV may help, but Texas Republicans want to ban that forever. They likely think Satan invented RCV.
Imagine sending your daughter to college in Texas and she gets pregnant at a frat party. I wouldn’t do it…
The three biggest reasons for this are the capping of the SALT tax deduction in 2017, availability of remote work for a couple years, and the deflating of the tech sector after interest rate hikes in 2021-2022. There's a lot of formerly high-income tech workers looking for new opportunities, and eying places like Austin and its suburbs (especially since more of them can work remotely).
looked at austin a few years back; flat, hot, horrible traffic
color me unimpressed
I have relatives in Dallas, they live in a $400K home and pay more than $18,000 per year in property taxes. Whenever people say 'No state income tax" in places like FL and Texas, I say, "Um... What about property taxes and Insurance costs".
I pay less in taxes than my relatives in Texas AND Florida, due to Prop 13. It's a scam to think you're gonna pay less in "Taxes" in FL and Texas when you look at your ENTIRE tax responsibilities.
Yes, the property tax rate in Texas is 2.3 times higher than in CA (1.74% vs. .75%). However, houses cost 2.5 times more in LA vs. Dallas ($1 million vs. $400,000 per Kevin). So overall you'll pay slightly more in property taxes in LA for a median-priced house.
it's not just about how much its gone up as a percentage since 2019, but absolute values matter as well, especially when incomes have not gone up on average by 50%
50% increase over 700K is a lot worse than over 300K
I believe the plot because I live in a far northern suburb of Dallas and my house has closely followed the dashed red curve. But as Kevin said, Dallas median housing is $400,000 vs. $1 million in LA. But this varies. If you live in affluent north Dallas (within the city limits), those areas will cost you double the northern suburbs per square foot.
I have been to CA enough to know things are cheaper here. Cost of living is lower and there is no income tax. Sure, your house property tax rate is higher, but houses are a lot cheaper, so net property taxes owed per year for a median-priced house are about the same.
Some other stats:
LA sales tax is 9.5% while Dallas is 8.25%.
Current gas price is $2.58 in Dallas and $4.56 in LA.
Milk (regular, 1 gallon) in Dallas is $3.65 vs. $5.03 in LA.
Meal for 2 People, Mid-range Restaurant, Three-course is $80 in Dallas and $100 in LA.
More generally:
Consumer prices including rent in LA are 19.9% higher than in Dallas.
Restaurant prices in LA are 22.3% higher than in Dallas.
Groceries prices in LA are 14.5% higher than in Dallas.
Before you hate all people in Texas for the politics, remember about half the people here are not so big on MAGA stuff:
In Aug 2023, 41% of Texas voters reported a favorable view of Trump while 51% had an unfavorable view.
2020 election results in Texas: Trump 52.1% (5,890,347) and Biden 46.5%. (5,259,126).
Not an economist, but if people really are selling houses in California and then moving to Texas and buying houses, doesn’t it make sense that Texas housing prices are increasing faster then California prices?
I don't think it takes being an economist to have that observation.
It would be surprising if housing prices had increased more in Dallas than LA since 1980. It's not remotely surprising they've gone up more since 2019. Lots of lower-priced housing markets have taken dramatic jumps over the last few years.
Oh, come now Kevin, we all know you long to leave Irvine for Irving...