Not long after Mr. Biden arrived in Poland, the Russian military signaled that it might be reducing its war aims. After a month of a grinding war in which Russian forces have been met by unexpectedly fierce Ukrainian resistance and have failed to capture major cities across the country, Maj. Gen. Sergei Rudskoi said Russia would now be focused on defeating Ukrainian forces in the eastern Donbas region, where Russian-backed separatists have been fighting a war since 2014.
Hell, if they'd done that from the start this whole thing would have been another Crimea: a quick, easy sprint that would have left the world with a fait accompli it could do little about. And it would have solidified Putin's reputation for military genius instead of turning into a long, grinding war that's done nothing but expose the Russian military as far less capable than anyone imagined.
What an idiot.
They should just settle an agreement with the Ukrainian government to have the Donbas be a demilitarized, autonomous region with no other conditions. The Ukrainian government might take that deal.
So Putin should be allowed to profit from his war crimes?
negotiated peace often involves compromise. Ukraine wouldn't be happy about ceding the contested portion of the Donbas, but they would be happy if the devastation of Western Ukraine could be halted.
I think if all he gets out of it is a nominally independent Donbas that is also demilitarized, then he's got very little to show for the war - but enough to potentially settle for it.
I don't care whether Putin is in charge of Russia or not at the end of this. Peace on acceptable terms for Ukraine is the point.
That is not the question.
Moralising posturing is easy to do from a keyboard.
However kids, women, men - innocents in one flavour or another (as Russian conscripts have hardly any choice) - are dying in droves.
"Allowed to profit" is cheap posturing.
Sure, bud. Tell that to whoever Putin invades next. I'm not trying to make the Ukrainians the world's foot soldiers. They should negotiate whatever they want with Russia, though I would trust Russia to adhere to its commitments about as much as I trust Russia to adhere to its commitments [sic]. But for the world community to let Putin have anything at all as a result of his war crimes would itself be criminal. We'll see how the Moldovans feel when he comes for them.
"Allowed to profit" is cheap posturing.
+1
So Putin should be allowed to profit from his war crimes?. **
He shouldn't be allowed to, no, of course not. He shouldn't be allowed to rule Russia without the consent of those he governs. He shouldn't be allowed steal tens of billions from his own people. He shouldn't be allowed to send agents to England and kill political opponents with poison. He shouldn't be allowed to be send his goons to beat up peaceful protestors. There are lots of things that Putin shouldn't be allowed to do. And there are likewise lots of things that any number of tinpot dictators on this planet shouldn't be allowed to do. But this is irrelevant to the issue at hand.
The question is: would a settlement and ceasefire result in a net improvement (for Ukrainians, for Europeans, for Americans, for the planet) or not?
Given the horrific cost being paid by the people of Ukraine, and the tail risk that accompanies a shooting war on NATO's border, and the various, harmful, destabilizing geopolitical and economic reverberations flowing from this war, I reckon it's virtually certain that the advantages of any conceivable peace deal outweigh the disadvantages, especially given the reality that Russia is clearly, at this point, looking for a face-saving exit ramp. IOW Putin isn't in a strong position. I understand the urge to keep one's boot firmly on the throat of one's enemy in times like these, but that urge should be resisted when the enemy in question possesses 6,000 nuclear weapons.
The world's find itself in a pretty dangerous situation right now, and it would be desirable to extricate ourselves from it. Geopolitics isn't a board game.
**This premise is highly questionable, to say the least. We won't know the final score for a while now—possibly years—but it seems likely Putin and the Russian state will not have "profited," on net, even if they do manage to keep Crimea and swaths of Eastern Ukraine.
I literally logged in before I saw this reply and realized you'd saved me the effort.
Putin may be evil scum, but there's some evidence he's evil scum that isn't as stable as he was five years ago. The reality is that he's still got a gun that could more or less end human civilization should he ever pull the trigger and all the justice in the world wouldn't do jack shit about the billions suffering, dead and dying.
I think the best we can hope for is either A: to neuter additional aggressive ambitions from Putin for the remainder of his life. He spends the remainder of his years in power licking his wounds and if the west can stop rattling his cage, he grows old and retires or dies in office. or B: He is peacefully or non-peacefully removed from power by his fellow Russians. Hopefully whoever replaces him isn't a gibbering idiot.
What I absolutely don't want is Putin to remain in the hot seat, seeing himself as a pariah and nursing his grudge against the world. The rest of the world continues to rattle his cage, keeping the pressure up, which exacerbates his grievances and encroaching mental illness.
LSS; I think there's alike a 5% chance that sometime in the next 10 years, Putin will try to press the nuclear button. It could be tomorrow in Ukraine or 10 years from now on his deathbed, but I really don't think he gives a shit for anyone except himself and if he can't make his mark on history, he might just chose to end it.
+1
This was never about the U.S. or EU or NATO ‘rattling Putin’s cage’, this was always about Putin’s dream of recreating the USSR under his rule. He’ll continue nursing his resentment at Russia’s decline regardless of what we do. I think your last paragraph is pretty much on the mark, unfortunately.
You may be overstretching the concept of "profit". An independent Donbas would be a gain of sorts for Putin, but the cost has already been enormous. The Russian Army has lost men, machinery, and perhaps most of all reputation. The Russian economy is being devastated by sanctions. The countries of Western Europe can be expected to continue to move in the direction of reducing or eliminating purchases of Russian oil and gas.
The temptation to tell Putin "you get NOTHING" is obviously great, but even if some compromise is worked out, Russia is still the net loser by a large margin.
The temptation to tell Putin "you get NOTHING" is obviously great, but even if some compromise is worked out, Russia is still the net loser by a large margin.
Exactly. One hopes defeat is not snatched from the jaws of a victory over Putin.
There are few wars that aren't devastating to the population or to the land. May this be finished soon with the Russians dragging what is left of their tails between their testicularless legs.
It has nothing to do with testicles. Would you put up much of a fight if the President sent you on a campaign to conquer Mexico? Moreover a campaign that is badly planned and about which you hear for the first time the day you are crossing the border? I feel sorry for those guys and for their relatives who get them back in body bags.
The better comparison would be Americans sent to invade Canada, a country much more economically and demographically similar to ourselves than Mexico. A good third or more of the country that would have no problem fighting or supporting a war against mostly brown people, but fewer would want to wage war against America Jr.
All we would have to do is say Canada forces people to use the metric system and doesn't recognize their right to bear handguns and the MAGAts would be volunteering for invasion duty. We wouldn't even need to bring up the enforced use of French signage. Freedumb!!
At this point, Russia will be lucky to hold onto Crimea.
Twitter pictures do not accurate picture of war make.
Russia already shit the bed with a full scale invasion and has to pay the price -- I don't think at this point the Ukrainians will take a "deal" that effectively breaks up their country. Moreover, the "separatist" movement in the Donbas was, from the very beginning, a Russian-engineered proxy war against Kyiv as punishment for the Maidan revolt in 2014. There was, to be sure, a lot of political dissatisfaction in the region (which is very poor and heavily dependent on decrepit, Soviet-era coal mines for what passes as its economy), but the armed uprising was all Russia's doing.
A lot of those discontented donbas guys are dead now. Russians conscripted them and threw them at the Ukranians with predictable results.
That's gotta hurt. I presume they were primarily the ones Russia was betting on using for their new puppet regime in Kyiv, too.
i seriously doubt that ukraine would stand by and allow the russians to walk in and steal part of its territory. not seven years after crimea.
Gee - anybody remember the days when sport halls and stadiums were not named after corporations? Sigh.
Not really. You must be quite old. The Patriots were playing in something called Schaefer Stadium, named after a beer brand, more than a half century ago.
Yeah for example, Crosley Field, Wrigley Field and Comiskey Park weren't named after local war heroes:-)
Great point. Once a corporate name gets old enough, it gets respectable.Takes a few decades, maybe?
Also, it helps if the name isn't silly. Wrigley Field feels natural, and has since at least the Nixon era.
Mile High Stadium can't seem to settle on a new name for more than a few years at a go. It'll always sound like a bad joke.
The White Sox play at Guaranteed Rate Field. Replace Rate and the jokes write themselves.
Yeah for example, Crosley Field, Wrigley Field...
Right. How could I have forgotten? Wrigley is the classic example.
I’m still chewing that one over.
-chuckle-
That must be an east coast thing. Here in the SF Bay area, the first named stadium was PacBell Park for the Giants in 2000. San Jose Arena became SAP Center in 2001. Levi's Stadium for the 49ers opened in 2014.
Busch Stadium goes back to the '50s, and Wrigley Field to the '20s. In those cases, they were named for the team owners. The Busch family wanted to call their park Budweiser Stadium but the MLB commish turned them down.
I'm not sure what this has to do Ukraine, but if we're debating whether Putin should get naming rights for Donbas or any other part of Ukraine, I think it's a bad idea. On the other hand, for the sake of full disclosure, Putin should get naming rights for the Republican Party. The Putin Party is a shorter and more accurate name.
Putin's best hope to salvage a win is to prolong the conflict till the US election of 2024 and hope the GOP sweeps, esp. with TFG on the ticket. In that case, he'll be world emperor and get to use the Oval Office as a laundromat any time he wants. But I don't think he can hold out that long. The only emotionally satisfying ending would be to make him the next Rasputin. I'd settle for Nicholas II. More likely, any "peace" agreement will be unsatisfying, leaving Putin in power. The trick will be convincing him he won but in a way that everyone else knows he lost. The question is how much of an idiot is he.
Everyone knew Trump lost but Trump and he has somehow convinced more than half of the Putin Party that the election was stolen from him and that he was the rightful winner. Republicans had a window of opportunity to rid themselves of that asshole and didn’t have the guts to do it. I hope the Russians are smarter, but probably not.
The secret to Trump's success is making claims nobody with a sane mind would say, then finding enough of the crazies think That's my guy, and the rest of the party says I'll have what he's having. Today, Trump said he'd threaten to drop nukes on Russia. There is no good outcome going down that road.
Unless, it means defeat for Trump, the GOP, and Putin, for that matter.
Trump didn't convince anybody that he won. He convinced many peple that it is a good lie to tell.
He sticks it and attck people that don't accept it as a way of promoting people that will help him subvert the election next time. Those that accept the lie he can be rely on, and those that don't he cannot.
Once you realize that "2020 was fraud" is actually a code "help subvert 2024" , Trump behaviour is quite rational (and evil).
Putin should get naming rights to Stalsk-12
Schaefer, Wrigley, Comiskey etc aren’t as blatantly corporate-named as KFC Yum! Center, Whataburger Field or Smoothie King Center. There are classier ways to name a stadium after a corporation that doesn’t involve use of exclamation points or logos.
Good old Shea Stadium comes to mind. MSG and Skankee Stadium currently and past The Nassau Coliseum, Giants Stadium as well.
Uh uh. Lambeau Field. When Green Bay voters were asked whether to sell the naming rights to corporations,they narrowly approved it -- but the Packers merely sold naming rights to the 8 gates, retaining the historic name of "Lambeau" for the stadium itself.
(In honor of the first Packers coach, Curly Lambeau.)
Fun fact: the Packers have never been sold to another city.
I'm astonished Putin had so little awareness of the state of his own military.
If I were going to drive a car over the Himalayas I'd want to know if the car can do it, and if the Himalayas presented any kind of obstacle before just charging ahead.
I think his mistake was less overestimating his own military than severely *underestimating* the determination of the Ukrainians to fight, and just how much an invasion would galvanize the US and its allies against him. He was betting on a flashy show of force, the poorly-trained Ukrainian military melting away, and a big victory parade through the streets of Kyiv and being welcomed as liberators. They're up to that, he figured.
In short, he was very, very high on his own supply.
"In short, he was very, very high on his own supply." Yes, but I wonder if his overconfidence stems from his remarkable success in manipulating the politics and socio-culture of our very own authoritarian wing, and how well he's hamstrung democracy here. That, and Brexit. Remarkably successful by any measure, maybe even unprecedented. So I can see his hubris from such a massive and consequential win going to his head, for sure.
This. Also, he thought Trump’s trashing of NATO and Europe’s dependence on Russian oil would leave them too weak and disorganized to interfere in his butchery. His nuclear threat and the fact he got away with similar butchery in Chechnya and Syria. The way that social media brought the horrors of Russian butchery promptly to the entire world also played an important role.
If a person tries to drive over the Himalayas in a Fiat and fails they might decide to try again in a more suitable vehicle. The challenge for Ukraine, I think, is to convince the Russians that “driving through the Himalayas” was a bad idea in the first place and shouldn’t be attempted again.
If you worked for Putin and took the opportunity to finance your new mega yacht by skimming the funds intended for new tanks, what would you say when he asked you how those new tanks were working out? Particularly when the wrong answer might result in a cup of Putin's famous Polonium tea.
And speaking of Russian generals, that position is turning out to be about as safe and stable as being the number two guy in Al-Qaeda.
They got another one yesterday: https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1507362085860261892?s=20&t=bMDXlHTYPAPwyHCx9igQ1w
The Russians should change their uniforms so that Generals serving in Ukraine wear red shirts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KbOHYnnhIwI
Or at least, brown pants.
Reportedly their communication tech is hackable by a middle school kid. The Ukrainians are hacking it and finding out where the commanders are and targeting them. Actually the headquarters--it's nothing personal, just too bad if the general's there.
At this point Putin cannot be allowed to gain anything by this war. I fully understand how Ukraine might want to fob Putin off by giving him those troublesome territories but from the perspective of the western allies Putin cannot be allowed any type of victory after what he's done.
Ukraine is basically a hostage with a knife at it's neck and Putin is a criminal who has committed murder and worse. Putin might be able to threaten the hostage into saying to the police, hey let him go. He only wants to steal a few more things.
The western allies need to set clear terms for Putin on what it will take for us to stand down the sanctions.
* Cease hostile activity
* Withdraw all forces from Ukraine
* Withdraw all forces from disputed territories, including Crimea.
* Begin paying reparations to Ukraine for the trillions of dollars of damage his war has caused.
We are well past the point where one nation can be allowed to invade and assault another in order to claim territory.
"* Withdraw all forces from disputed territories, including Crimea.
* Begin paying reparations to Ukraine for the trillions of dollars of damage his war has caused."
LOL! And that will happen co-terminus with the first verified report of porcine aviation.
LOL! And that will happen co-terminus with the first verified report of porcine aviation.
+1
What conditions would you put on dropping sanctions on Russia? A response other than mockery might be nice.
We can't control Russia's actions but we can control our own. This is what I think should be the bottom line for dropping sanctions. You guys may disagree. If so say what you mean.
Here's what I mean:
• Russia won't withdraw from Crimea
• Russia won't pay a dime in reparations
Sanctions only work when everyone world-wide enforces them. If Russia settles for Crimea and Donbass, our allies will accept half a loaf and drop the sanctions *that are hurting their economies, too."
Hope that helps.
That will certainly help the next dictator that wants to conquer territory from a neighbor, yes.
All it takes is enough major economies, not ‘everyone worldwide’. If and when there is a ‘half a loaf’ outcome, I would hope that the allies considering dropping sanctions will consider that they very likely will have to impose them again in months or years, when Putin breaks the agreement and tries again.
Joel, you say LOL. I say Hell Yes!
Squeeze him in his banks and his businesses; squeeze so hard his balls hurt. And then explain to him that it's too late to say he's sorry. Only ACTIONS can relieve the pressure. And his actions, not just the promise of them, have to PRECEDE the relief.
We have the military power to wipe Russia off the face of the Earth. But that's not the way we roll. On the other hand, we also have the financial power, and that IS the way we roll. All we need is the will to accept high prices for a while. To me that seems like a small price to pay to head off this wanna-be Stalin before he kills another few million people.
Russia has the thermonuclear warheads to wipe the US off the face of the Earth. And, no, we don't have the financial power. Only if the other major economies join us. That ain't gonna happen. Nations don't have friends, they only have interests, and our allies' interests will lead them to abandon sanctions as soon as Russia offers them the first fig leaf.
So yes, I say LOL.
"Nations don't have friends, they only have interests, and our allies' interests will lead them to abandon sanctions as soon as Russia offers them the first fig leaf."
This is exactly what Putin was counting on for the invasion, he thought that each nation, particularly those in Europe which are more dependent on Russian resources would be looking out for No 1 and would thus be unwilling or unable to set any type of meaningful sanctions against him and Russia, but as we saw, they actually did decide to put self interest aside for a good cause.
Had Putin decided to withdraw as soon as the sanctions were put in place maybe he could have walked away some some small territorial gain, but now after all the damage he's done, he'd have to give the entire fig tree to get them removed. Best case scenario for him right now is if he is allowed to keep Crimea which was already under his control before this war, but neither Ukraine nor the rest of Europe would settle for an inch more than that.
As I posted upthread:
• Russia won't withdraw from Crimea
• Russia won't pay a dime in reparations
Sanctions only work when everyone world-wide enforces them. If Russia settles for Crimea and Donbas, our allies will accept half a loaf and drop the sanctions *that are hurting their economies, too."
I can see them not pushing for Crimea, as I said in my comment, but after all the carnage, I doubt they'll give in for Donbas. With the level of popular support for Ukraine right now, any suggestion that the aggressor could leave with a partial win after all the death and destruction it caused would be courting political suicide for Western leaders.
As for reparations, yes, I think they are out of the question simply because there is no way on Earth Russia could pay them even if they wanted to, so why ask for something that would never amount to anything even if there was a willingness to do it.
You don't start a negotiation with the best deal you can possibly give your negotiating partner though, do you? Joel would have us assume what Putin won't agree to and be sure not to demand any of these things. I've got some things I'd like to sell Joel. I think I can make a lot of money that way.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awEC-aLDzjs
Just say’in 😉
LOL!
OK, that beats the Muppets, "Pigs in Space"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SN0wK-wXqY0
Oh please. A massive defeat for Putin has been baked into the cake at this point, and everybody in the world knows it. There is zero probability that retreating from the field to concentrate on the eastern borderlands Russia already controlled can be spun by Putin as a victory. Russia's economy has been wounded, and it won't be regarded as a reliable supplier (or market) the way it formerly was as long as Putin remains dictator. And geopolitical trends in Putin's own backyard have turned sharply against him, with steep increases in NATO defense spending and probably enlargement of this defacto anti-Russian alliance. He fucked up massively. I'd be surprised if domestic actors aren't plotting against him.
It's easy for safe and comfortable Westerners to tell Ukraine they mustn't make a deal. But meanwhile, every day the fighting rages means that poor country is getting the shit kicked out of it, and Ukrainians are dying. But if peace breaks out this ends. And the prospect of something going badly wrong (as in use of WMD) hopefully goes away. And Ukraine might be able to get its spring farming activities underway, so as to hopefully lessen the chances of a hunger-inducing grain shortage. And energy markets might lurch back toward normalcy, thereby putting downward pressure on inflation and making it harder for Republicans to prevail in November.
Peace has a lot to recommend it, and I for one hope the US and the Europeans keep their noses out of Ukraine and Russia's business, if indeed these two bellligerents are within reach of a ceasefire.
I didn't say anything about what Ukraine should do. I said what the western allies should do. Are you saying we should drop all sanctions on Putin and Russia if the Ukrainians are forced into ceding territory to the Russians? What message would this send to other countries who have territorial ambitions? If you can invade a weaker country and force them to cede territory then no harm no foul?
I agree with you. If the Ukrainians feel they must accept a cease-fire or even a peace agreement while Russian troops are still on their soil, they will do so. But the West may set different conditions for and end to sanctions. I believe the sanctions should be maintained until Russia ceases to be a threat to its neighbors. Unless that is done, we will find ourselves back in the same situation, perhaps in Moldova, perhaps even in the Baltics, despite their being NATO members. I don’t believe that Russia will change course while Putin is in power, but I think his removal is much more likely than pigs flying.
" . . . sanctions should be maintained until Russia ceases to be a threat to its neighbors."
Russia has been a threat to its neighbors for over 200 years. These sanctions won't last 200 weeks. It's not like they're painless for the rest of the world.
Every major European country was once a threat to its neighbors. Now, only one remains so. Nothing would stop Russia choosing a different path.
Personally I hope the West sets as conditions for the removal of sanctions from Russia the complete removal of every military personnel and equipment from Russia. Not a sanction gets removed until the last pair of Russian boots leaves Ukraine.
But, I hope they do keep the sanctions aimed at Putin and his enablers for as long as he is in power. If he and his minions wants a shot at getting back and enjoying some of their ill gotten riches then entice him to walk away and decide if staying/keeping him in power is worth it.
No other country wants to imitate this blunder, which still won't look like a success when all sanctions are lifted. And the sanctions will eventually be lifted for the benefit of both Western nations and the people of Russia. Give peace a chance.
"No other country wants to imitate this blunder"
The problem is that next time a country is thinking of doing something similar they will say to themselves, we aren't like that idiot Putin, our military will be able to do it. Which is the same thing Putin said to himself before this started.
And if he remains in power, in a few more years he’ll have a new crop of generals and lackeys, and he’ll convince himself that “this time will be different!”
Honest to god, f*** the Russian people at this point. If they want my sympathy then tell them to fight to get rid of that monster who runs their country. And if they are afraid to do that while their army massacres civilians and destroys a neighboring country then they have lost any claim to my sympathy.
Whatever deals the Ukrainians and the Russians make, the decision by the western powers to continue, or not continue, sanctions against Russia is a decision for the western powers and so can't be part of any Ukraine/Russia deal.
+1
Makes sense. Also, at this point I think Zelensky has proven his ability to assess and deal with the political, military, social, and strategic complexities he faces. Noone's perfect, but he's been on point across the board, so if he accepts an offer I think he deserves the benefit of the doubt that it's the best possible outcome.
I think this is right. And Putin will refuse to agree to any of it, which is why I'm starting to think that the only way this ends is with a Russian military coup of some kind.
Yes. We’ll see if this supposed narrowing of objectives is borne out in Russia’s actions. Rudskoi’s statement as reported by the NYT sounded also like defining down victory; Russia never intended to occupy cities, yadada.
I started out thinking a coup was an impossibility. But now, I think the remaining living generals may well find a way to put a bullet in Putin's head.
I'm looking forward to this headline:
Putin committed suicide today. He shot himself in the back of the head, twice.
Well, Putin rhymes with Rasputin, in case they are looking for ideas.
and then jumped off the 20th story balcony of a building that has no balconies.....
You mean like this guy:
“ Webb was found dead in his Carmichael home on December 10, 2004, with two gunshot wounds to the head. His death was ruled a suicide by the Sacramento County coroner's office. According to a description of Webb's injuries in the Los Angeles Times, he shot himself with a .38 revolver, which he placed near his right ear. The first shot went through his face, and exited at his left cheek. The coroner's staff concluded that the second shot hit an artery.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Webb
I like how when pushed to explain how someone can die by suicide with two shots the coroner's office response was to say it is possible with no actual explanation of the how, and left it at that.
Yeah, that doesn't sound fishy at all.
Saw something once about a guy who tried to commit suicide by placing a shot gun under his chin and pulling the trigger. Blew the entire front of his skull off missing the brain entirely, then went staggering around the house until he finally died of blood loss.
Perhaps we should let the Ukrainians decide what is sufficient for peace. They are doing the fighting after all.
Yes. But the West has its own decision to make - under what conditions will sanctions be ended, and which ones, and to what extent?
Nix the "reparations." Russia's economy was on its knees before the invasion and has gone precipitously downhill. I'd recommend, assuming Putin has been delivered to the Hague and is in detention, or otherwise neutered, that a full scale Marshall Plan for Russia, as well as Ukraine, is called for.
Putin hoped to force Ukraine to become part of Greater Rossiya by brutal force. That never works, particularly in the 21st c. What DID convert mortal enemies into friends? Guess.
Who do you propose should pay to rebuild Ukraine?
Obviously, the United States has to be a major player, because it's the United States. The other members of NATO and European Community have a big dog in that fight, too, and ought to be tapped.
No, of course it isn't popular. Spending is never popular, unless it's on the military and assorted death machines. Because that's the kind of species we are.
These commenters here are fuck8ng cowards. They lack the ability to be outraged by war crimes because, well, I don’t know. They fashion themselves as amoral realists whereas you (and me) are hot heads who must be talked out of our outrage. They may very well get their settlement and avoid having to sacrifice anything. Really… that’s their only goal.
The EU is the biggest economic unit in the world; its GDP exceeds that of the US. They're in an excellent economic position to give a neighbor a helping hand.
Nix the "reparations." Russia's economy was on its knees before the invasion and has gone precipitously downhill.
Yep. It's as if people have never heard of the Treaty of Versailles, or the Weimar Republic.
People living in the exurbs of Denver aren't helped even a little bit if Russians are quite a bit poorer and embittered in the year 2034 than they might have been, simply because of a desire on the part of Western hard asses to punish a country that quite some time ago was taken over by a lunatic.
Crushing someone's economy and then demanding reparations is not smart policy. The French under George Clemeneau tried this to punish Germany after WWI and in the end it didn't work out very well.
Ukraine is putting up a stubborn resistance, and no doubt the Russian army has gotten a bloody nose, but people are way too optimistic about Ukraine's chances. Ukraine has thrown everything plus the kitchen sink into barely holding on. Russia, by contrast, has put only about 15%-20% of its military strength into the invasion. Russia still has the initiative in Ukraine. It's just a question of how willing Russia is to commit further resources and suffer further losses.
Russia, by contrast, has put only about 15%-20% of its military strength into the invasion.
That's not what I've seen reported. I think Putin has in fact committed most of Russia's current combat forces to Ukraine and they are getting bogged down/killed to such an extent that they've had to go begging for mercenaries. They're certainly inflicting a lot of pain and damage on Ukraine in the meantime, but I wouldn't call what they have currently as "the initiative", just as I wouldn't call what the Ukrainians are doing "winning" just quite yet.
They haven’t used chemical or nuclear weapons yet. Once either of those are deployed, Ukraine is toast. If Putin feels he’s going to be disposed of anyway, he might elect to use either in a Hail Mary attempt to “win.”
There is nothing that could insure that far heavier and longer-lasting sanctions will be imposed on Russia, more than using chemical weapons in Ukraine. If anything toxic drifts into Poland, even stronger responses might be seen.
The Russian invasion force in Ukraine is estimated to be around 150,000-190,000 strong. The Russian armed forces total about 1 million men. The Russians committed all the troops they had stationed at the Ukraine border, but not all the troops in the Russian military.
Ukraine has no functional air force or navy left (not that it had more than a tiny navy to start with).
You understand that Russia can’t just turn out the lights at all its military bases and send a million men into Ukraine? Only a fraction of whom are actual combat troops?
All? No. Double the current number? Sure.
Not to mention that Russia has not mobilized any of its 2 million reservists yet, while Ukraine has mobilized all of their reserves. If you look at it from a purely military point of view (not politics or diplomacy), I think 10 out of 10 generals would rather have the Russian hand of cards.
Russia could still make the moves needed to crush Ukraine, but Putin is now rethinking whether the cost is worth it in terms of domestic politics. Another 20,000 dead soldiers? Pyrrhic victory from a political view. (Forget the actual lives - Putin does not care about those at all.)
Brooks' law states that adding programmers to a late software project makes it later. Russia’s problems go well beyond a mere lack of troops; and it’s not unreasonable to think that introducing more will just add to their problems of directing, coordinating and supporting operations.
You’re probably right about the generals, but the other cliché I’d invoke is about high commands fighting the last war. Ukraine is getting the best ‘smart’ weapons to be had; while Russia seems to already have very limited availability of precision weapons. This goes some way toward countering Russia’s numerical advantages. Is it enough? Time will tell.
Numbers are not being published, but before the war started Ukraine had about 120,000 people in the standing army plus 240,000 official reserves. They have since mobilized a bunch of older veterans who were not officially part of the reserves. The Ukrainians are certainly fielding more than 500,000 troops, and may be close to a million troops.
In WWII, many countries put 10% or more of their populations into uniform. If that ratio still holds true, the Ukrainians could theoretically field four to five million troops.
Ukraine cannot possibly support that many troops; fortunately they don't have to. Support is coming from the effectively limitless resources of the western countries.
is estimated to be around 150,000-190,000 strong. The Russian armed forces total about 1 million men.
That larger figure includes everything—naval forces, air forces, administrative personnel, logistics support personnel, strategic forces (aka the guys who guard and operate the nukes), trainers, accountants...
Everything I've seen suggests about 2/3rd of actual Russian combat strength has been devoted to Ukraine. Which is consistent with the country's efforts to recruit Syrians.
Here’s a WaPo article reporting intel that Russia is moving units out of other conflict areas (including Georgia!) to replace losses in Ukraine, despite the risks: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/25/russia-reinforcements-georgia-ukraine/
Supports your argument: Russian bench doesn’t seem to be all that deep …
We’ll see fairly soon if the Ukrainians are ‘barely holding on’. They claim to be pushing the Russians back along several fronts, and to be entering Kherson. If these claims prove true, Russia is not likely to get the outside help it is reportedly seeking.
One would think that if Russia had significant uncommitted forces available, the Ukrainian invasion force would have seen significant reinforcements by now.
Jasper, jte and lawnorder are in line with Western intel. The WaPo article asserts that the additional units Russia is sending to Ukraine amount to little more than replacements for losses: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/03/25/russia-reinforcements-georgia-ukraine/
Also according to the article, Russia claimed that 20,000+ from foreign countries volunteered to fight in the Donbas, but the Peoples’ Republics declined the offers. Sure they did.
Barring something dramatic I don't think focusing on the Donbas is going to help.
They can flatten everything and hold thousands of people hostage, and what will that accomplish? More reasons to hate Russia and continue sanctions beyond the end of hostilities, and if it keeps up like this for three more weeks the Russian army may turn around and walk home on it's own.
They're going to lose whatever they've been fighting for in the East, and if Putin somehow loses power they'll lose Crimea as well.
Maintaining control of Donbas gives Russia a lock on the Crimean Black Sea oil fields - which is really what is driving the bus. Ukraine has to decided how much blood and treasure this usurpation is going to cost. At this stage of the fight it's still a toss up. Ukraine is looking good but ... there is still a callous opportunist in control of Russia.
If it’s about the Black Sea oil fields, why the attacks directed at Kyiv, Kharkiv, Lviv?
Wired had a good article a few days ago about not it's how Russia wants to lose the war:
https://www.wired.com/story/biden-putin-russia-lose-ukraine-war/
Putin's narrow-eyed, evil yacht,
https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-no-one-wants-that-mega-yacht-in-tuscany-to-be-putins?ref=wrap
Looks like it's built to ram something. Has there ever been a yacht that seemed less fun? What is it for? Bet it has an attachment for a submarine on the bottom, right below the dungeon.
Did you believe him when he claimed that he wasn't going to go to war with Ukraine?
Did you believe him when he said he wasn't conducting a war?
Did you believe him when he said he wasn't targeting civilians?
Did you believe him when he said that Ukraine needed to be "de-Nazified"?
Did you believe him when he said that everything was going according to the plan?
Did you believe him when he said that less than 2000 Russian troops had perished, as of today?
Did you believe him when he said Ukraine and the US were developing biological weapons to target Russians?
Did you believe him when he said that Ukraine was planning on using chemical weapons?
Did you believe him when he said that Ukrainians were conducting false flag operations against their own people?
But now you believe him, right? 😉
After all, he's completely stopped the shelling of Kyiv. Or maybe not.
Maybe you don't watch the real-time red alerts of incoming bombs/shelling -- Do you think Putin has pulled his weapons off Kharkiv? Mykoliv? How about Melitopol? Odesa? Zaporizka? Dnipro? Kherson?
Is Russia handing over Chernobyl to the IAEA? Are they abandoning the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant?
So tell me, where do you get the notion that what Putin's generals say is what they're going to do?
So tell me, where do you get the notion that what Putin's generals say is what they're going to do?
I don't think anyone's suggesting the Putin's words—absent verifiable actions that accompany those words—should be taken at face value.
Nonetheless a face-saving, strategic retreat on Putin's pat would be consistent with the gathering evidence that his glorious little war has turned out to be anything but.
Putin has been clear for years that his dream is a Greater Russia. In his mind, anything short of total control, and likely eventual annexation, of Ukraine is a defeat.
Come now. The entire news circuit is dominated by pundits citing this as a clear mark of retreat by Putin.
I see it for what it really is: PUTIN BULLSHIT.
He didn't trot out all that chemical/biological weapons false flag shit just to stop attacking the rest of Ukraine. He means to take Ukraine.
Fortunately, the only stooges dumb enough to keep falling for the same trick is the media. No one's stopping the flow of arms and defensive equipment to Ukraine, on account that Putin's general said they were pulling back to defend Donbas.
If you've been following along, you know that the US and Ukraine think Russia's been trying to use a pincer to cut off the Donbas region for weeks. No one should be fooled by this talk of "focusing" on defending Donbas. This is about killing Ukrainians defending Ukraine.
The Russian forces around Kyiv are in defensive posture and Russia is still shelling Kyiv.
Do not believe in the <b.PUTIN BULLSHIT.
Do not believe in the <b.PUTIN BULLSHIT.
As I said above, his mere words shouldn't be taken at face value, naturally.
'
Concentrate on actions. Given everything we've seen, it's highly likely Putin wants out. That's to be expected when a state bites off more than it can chew; (Recall Nixon's "Vietnamization").
Reducing the scale of Russian military operations certainly would be one of the things we'd expect to see prior to a Russia's quitting the fight.
What would lead you to think it is ‘highly likely Putin wants out’? If the report is confirmed, that he is taking the risk of pulling troops out of other conflict areas (Georgia, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh) to commit to Ukraine, then he is certainly doubling down.
What would lead you to think it is ‘highly likely Putin wants out’?
Desire to remove all doubt that he's losing this war is what would lead me to think that.
Ukraine poised to surround Russian army west of Kyiv,
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/24/ukraine-has-launched-counteroffensives-reportedly-surrounding-10000-russian-troops/?sh=4452123c1170
I wish the Ukrainians success.
From all that I have seen, the people of Crimea would have voted to join Russia in a free and fair plebiscite prior to 2014, but Ukraine said no. The referendum by the Russians post-occupation was rigged, of course, but in a fair vote they probably would have voted to join Russia.
What about after the war? They might want to get some of that Western reconstruction money and to get out from under sanctions; OTOH they might fall to some nasty repercussions from the Ukrainians. Are they to be allowed to vote?
If at first you don’t succeed…
… change the definition of success.
This. Declare victory and go home.
I don’t believe him. Remember Chechnya…..he’s got 1000 members of Wagner Group coming in….Putin is going to raze Ukraine to the ground…( or try)
The big difference between Chechnya and Ukraine is Putin wasn't losing in Chechnya.
From what I can tell from Ukrainian sources - this is a war of independence. Everyday there are Russian BMP's not on fire on Ukrainian steppes will be a day of war. I'm not blood thirsty, I just remember where the Gadsden flag came from, not the perversion of today. The price they are paying should be worth what they get - and that means shaking off that diseased bear and growing into the nation they see four themselves. The "West" should be the "France" of Ukraine.