Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been on a roller coaster for the past four decades. Relations were bad after the Iranian Revolution but improved during the Gulf War. They soured again when Iran began pursuing a nuclear program and then again after an Iranian plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the US was uncovered. Finally, Saudi Arabia cut off diplomatic relations with Iran in 2016 after Iran executed a Saudi cleric and then ransacked the Saudi embassy. Relations have remained tense during the long war in Yemen, which featured brutal fighting between Saudi and Iranian proxies.
Then, yesterday, the two countries announced they were restoring diplomatic ties. This was unexpected but not surprising. It's hardly the first time they've agreed to bury the hatchet, after all.
But the announcement got more than the usual attention because it was brokered by China. China! Why not the US? Were we losing our historic influence over the Middle East?
I wish. The reason we didn't broker the agreement is because we have no diplomatic relations with Iran. US diplomats aren't allowed to talk or interact with their Iranian counterparts in any way. They can't so much as say hello during coffee breaks at the UN. That makes us a poor choice of go-between.
And that's why the US wasn't involved in this latest bit of micro-negotiation in the Middle East.
The USA is at war with Iran
It started 70 years ago when the USA (and Britain) removed the elected Iranian government and installed their puppet Dictator
The Shah - with the help of the CIA - killed all of his secular opposition so when the Shah fell we got the Mullahs
They would have lasted five years - ten at most
But the USA provided the gift every dictator dreams of - an external enemy
First by using its other puppet dictator (Saddam) to attack - more Iranians killed than the USA lost in both world wars
Then by sanctions and occasional actions (airliners shot down)
Obama - stopped the war - the days of the Mullahs were numbered!
Then the Orange Cockwomble restarted it - the Mullahs breathed a sigh of relief
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For enough money, Jared would’ve happily volunteered to be the go-between. (For enough money, Jared probably would do anything for or to anybody. He personifies the amoral greedy soullessness of the modern GOP.)
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The US has hitched its Middle East wagon to a rock. We are all Israel, all the time. This makes it near impossible to normalize relations with Iran, nukes or no. Similarly, the US remains bound to the Saudi royal family, who by some coincidence, have joined forces with ... Israel.
It would require a bold readjustment in US policy to change that dynamic. As bold as, say, the withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The big loser is Netanyahu. Implacable foe of the Iranian would be nuclear mullahs, yet striving to be the Israeli statesman that cut a deal with the Saudi’s, poor Netanyahu is left out standing in the cold rain with nothing to show for it.
It's possible. But it makes one wonder. Given the relative tightness between the House of Saud and Netanyahu of late (and the latter's increasingly pro-authoritarian tendencies), you wouldn't have to be a crazy conspiracy buff to think there may be more here than meets the eye. Restoration of Israel-Iran ties isn't happening any time soon, I'm sure. But perhaps the Mullahs (and the Israelis?) are tired of their little Cold War. Also, if Iran can hunker behind the Sino-Russian nuclear umbrella, perhaps they might decide it's ok to put their own program on ice for the time being...
I think there may be another shoe to drop at some point.
I had the same questions: what is China getting out of this, and what guarantees did it provide to each party to get the deal done?
An entire planet full of electric vehicles can't come fast enough. The sooner we can stop giving a crap about the Middle East the better.
This. The day is coming--soon!--when the Saudis and the Russians the Iranians will be cutting each others' throats in a desperate game of "see who can sell the most oil at $5 a barrel."
US oil consumption peaked in 2005, and EV sales are *tripling* every year. We're on the downward and steepening slope of oil consumption, and I imagine that fact keeps the petro-autarchs up at night.
"...after Iran executed a Saudi cleric and then ransacked the Saudi embassy.."
Actually it was Saudi Arabia who executed a (Saudi Arabian) Shia cleric just prior to an Iran mob ransacking the Saudi embassy/consulates.
Religious fanatics will never really be friendly with fanatics of other religions.
Really? Then how do you describe the new alliance between Israel and Saudi Arabia?
That's not the question being asked on the right. Republicans are incensed that Sleepy Joe has relinquished his job as World Dictator, allowing the hated Chinese to take over and build alliances with America's Evil Enemies. They pretend to be appalled that America has "driven" Saudi Arabia into the arms of Iran and China.
The fact that this is completely inconsistent with their supposed commitment to "America First!" and disdain for "globalism" is neither here nor there.
...also, Russia was unavailable.
I wonder if the Saudi's mentioned the Uyghurs to China during negotiations? When are those atrocities going to come home to roost for the Chinese?
Curious reasoning on Kevin's part. Generally speaking, the US doesn't want its friends cozying up to its enemies. IOW it has little to do with diplomatic niceties and everything to do with America's highly questionable geopolitical goals.
Other than oil and murder, I don't see what the House of Saud has contributed to the world at large. Iran, OTOH, is Persia. A most agreeable and cultured civilization. And Zororastrianism has got the Abrahamic Big Three beat every which way in terms of enlightenment. Plus, Freddy Mercury.
I know whose side I'm on.
Like +20!
Maybe time for China to fuck around and find out. Sort of like the EU having to start taking the weight off Annie. Back to a multilateral world.