Month: February 2022

Charlie isn't the only cat who gets to take advantage of my new flash unit. Hilbert is allowed outside where the light is good, but on a sunny day with lots of shadows even a cat can benefit from a bit of fill flash.

The American economy gained a whopping 467,000 jobs last month. We need 90,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth, which means that net job growth clocked in at 377,000 jobs. The headline unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.0%.

This report incorporated the usual annual correction for the beginning of a new year. The revised employment numbers gained about 700,000 jobs in November and December as a result.

Nearly everything is good news this month. In addition to the million new jobs reported (counting both January and the revisions for last year), about 1.4 million people entered the labor force; the number of employed people went up by 1.2 million; and the participation rate went up from 61.9% to 62.2%. The gains were almost entirely in the service sector.

However, earnings were down sharply. Adjusted for inflation, overall wages declined at an annualized rate of about 4% and blue-collar wages declined about 5%. This is good news for inflation hawks, but not for anyone else.

Amazon announced today that they are raising the price of Amazon Prime to $139 per year. But if I've taught you anything, your first question when you heard this was I wonder what that looks like adjusted for inflation?

Here it is:

$139 is about 10% of the US median weekly income. Only you can decide if that's worth it.

Isn't this gorgeous? It was taken near sunset at a bluff on the Palos Verdes peninsula. This is why people pay several million dollars for homes nearby.

Conventional wisdom last week: Facebook is a world-spanning monopoly that spreads disinformation, hurts our children, and is answerable to no one but the messianic Mark Zuckerberg. The only answer is for the government to break it up.

Conventional wisdom as of 4 pm yesterday: Facebook is hemorrhaging its most lucrative users, Apple has destroyed its ad business, and its VR business will continue to lose huge amounts of money for at least a decade. It's all but dead.

Things sure do change fast in the metaverse! Sometimes all it takes is one earnings call.

According to the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, the global price of food has increased more than 40% since the middle of 2020:

The biggest gainer by far has been the 108% increase in the cost of vegetable oils:

This is partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but it's also due to the effects of climate change as well some plain old bad luck.

The national debt topped $30 trillion this week, "an ominous fiscal milestone that underscores the fragile nature of the country’s long-term economic health," according to the New York Times. However, a more important measure is the amount of interest we pay on that debt:

Interest on the national debt soared under Ronald Reagan and then returned to normal under Bill Clinton. For the past two decades it's been pretty flat at just under 1.5% of GDP. In 2021 it clocked in at 1.53%.

Of course, interest payments could increase if interest rates go up significantly. That doesn't seem likely right now, but the Fed has certainly signaled a modest increase in interest rates later this year. Combined with increased spending, this could add up to higher interest payments in 2022.

Behold, the most clutch powerpoint slide I've ever seen in my entire defense reporting career. My colleague @maeday22 was lucky enough to witness it in person and send my way. @giantcat9 pic.twitter.com/IDfG4VF9Yr

— Jen Judson (@JenJudson) February 2, 2022

This chart shows net medical care inflation. That is, the amount of medical care inflation above the overall inflation rate:

Adjusted for overall inflation, the price level of medical care dropped 3.5% last year. Since 1995, the cost of medical care has exceeded the inflation rate by an average of only about 1% per year. The era of skyrocketing medical costs has been over for decades.

This is the column of Marcus Aurelius, the last of the "five good emperors." He spent his last decade fighting Germanic tribes on the frontier, and as we all know, was responsible for the epic downfall of Russell Crowe in Gladiator thanks to his shit poor opsec. But Crowe worked his way back to the top, wreaked revenge against Joaquin Phoenix, and got an Oscar out of the deal. All in all, not so bad.