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Who's responsible for the mess in the Middle East? You can go back as far as you want, of course, if you want to blame Theodor Herzl or Arthur Balfour or the United Nations or the Ottoman Empire. But if we stick to relatively recent history, the answer lies with one reckless man and a now-forgotten controversy.

In the same way that Quemoy and Matsu were famous for a while in the early '60s, the Strait of Tiran was famous for a decade or so between 1956 and 1967. Here's the situation in Israel starting with independence in 1948:

Shipments to and from Israel were blocked by Egypt from transiting the Suez Canal. Since the surrounding Arab countries had all implemented a comprehensive blockade on trade with Israel, this left them with no trade avenues outside the Mediterranean.

There was only one other option: the original UN partition of Israel had included a few miles of coastline around the town of Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba. For Israel's first few years this didn't matter much: Eilat was in the far south of the country and there was no port there and no good rail or road connections from the Gulf to the rest of the country. So in 1952 Israel started building a port at Eilat.

In 1956 the port opened, and this brings us to the reckless man: Gamal Abdel Nasser, who had assumed control of Egypt a few years earlier as a saber-rattling pan-Arab nationalist. In July he blockaded the Strait of Tiran, which prevented cargo getting to or from Eilat—including oil from Iran. Israel launched a retaliatory strike against Egypt, with assistance from Britain and France, who were angry about Nasser's concurrent nationalization of the Suez Canal. This was the Suez Crisis.

The crisis ended when all three countries withdrew from Egypt and the Tiran Strait was reopened with UN troops overseeing things from Sharm El-Sheikh. Over the next few years Israel tried to negotiate some kind of agreement to allow Israeli goods to transit the Suez Canal, but eventually gave up. This left the Strait of Tiran as their only outlet to India, Iran, and the Far East.

Within a decade 90% of Israeli oil was coming through the Strait and Israel had made it clear that it considered a blockade of the Strait to be an act of war. But Nasser was mercurial, seeking peace and planning war depending on his mood. In 1964 he created the PLO, and by 1967 he had been itching for some time for a war that would destroy Israel once and for all. In May he ejected UN troops from Sharm El-Sheikh and blockaded the strait in full knowledge that it would trigger a war.

It did, and by the time it ended Israel controlled both Gaza and the West Bank (and the Sinai peninsula, which provided control of the Strait of Tiran). In 1973 Egypt launched another war against Israel, and it was after that war that Israel began building settlements in earnest on its occupied territory.

The 1973 war was launched after Nasser's death, but it was the 1967 war that shaped the next half century. Israel eventually returned the Sinai to Egypt and signed a peace treaty, but Nasser's lasting legacy was permanent Israeli control of Gaza and the West Bank.

It's fair to say that Israel and the Arab world had plenty of hostility before 1967, but it's Israeli control of the West Bank and Gaza that has truly made the Middle East what it is today. And that's all thanks to Nasser and the Strait of Tiran.

Here's an odd thing:

Trump's 40 Wall Street property has been on watchlist for a while thanks to high costs and vacancy rates, but as near as I can tell they're up to date on their loan payments. It's not unheard of for a CMBS loan to be transferred from its master servicer to a special servicer due to trouble short of default, but it's unusual. I wonder what's going on here?

Louisiana's latest redistricting map is so unfair to Black voters that even the hyper-conservative Fifth Circuit Court has agreed it's illegal:

The Louisiana state legislature has until the middle of January to enact a new congressional map after a federal court ruled that the state’s current map illegally disfranchises Black voters in the state.... According to the order, if the state legislature doesn’t pass a new map by the deadline, then a lower district court should conduct a trial and develop a plan for the 2024 elections.

I expect a detailed and sorrowful editorial from the Wall Street Journal shortly that explains how the normally sensible Fifth Circuit nonetheless got this wrong. It will probably have something to do with one of the judges on the panel being a Jimmy Carter appointee.

Here is the quarterly rate of core PCE inflation over the past couple of decades:

Excluding the unusual deflation during the start of the Great Recession, average core PCE inflation averaged 2.1% through 2019. In the third quarter of this year it was at 2.4%.

Over at New York, Kevin Dugan notes that BlackRock, a huge investment company, is close to getting SEC approval for a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). An ETF is a fund that invests in related securities—the S&P 500, for example, or maybe a collection of health care companies—but is traded like an ordinary stock.

By itself this isn't too unexpected. What cracks me up is Dugan's explanation of what it all means:

At its core, a crypto ETF would make it easier for financial institutions (your pensions, mutual funds, hedge funds, and the like), and the average 401(k) holder, to easily trade and profit from the digital currencies without having to worry about encryption keys, or getting hacked, or anything like that.

In other words, a boring old ETF is great because it's fundamentally safer than a supposedly bulletproof, blockchain-based cryptocurrency. How the worm has turned!

It's all true, of course. The foundational blockchain itself might be technically impregnable, but in practice you still have to store your encryption keys somewhere. You still have to keep your crypto in a wallet somewhere. You still have to rely on your broker staying solvent. You still have to rely on all of these middlemen not to be outright crooks.

Sadly, these are all very real vulnerabilities, as we've learned over the past decade. Crypto is harder to buy and sell than ordinary securities and less safe than ordinary banks. BlackRock, by contrast, is easy to do business with and has a long history of being reliable and properly regulated.

Crypto continues to have no real use case outside of criminal activity. Money is safer in an ordinary bank. Dollars are far more widely accepted than Bitcoin. Money transfers are quicker and cheaper with PayPal or Western Union. Stocks and bonds are a better inflation hedge. There are niche cases where crypto is a good option, but they remain tiny and scattered. After more than a decade, crypto is still a solution in search of a problem.

This is Charlie in our front yard garden. The picture looks a little different than usual because I was playing with my flash unit. It wasn't night, it was midday, and I was hoping to get a flash photo of one of our hummingbirds. The hummingbirds didn't cooperate, but I killed time by taking fill-flash pictures of the cats as they roamed around wondering what I was up to.

I have no special reason for posting this. It's a Google Maps picture of a small piece of Gaza City:

Roughly speaking, this is about 1% of Gaza City, which itself is only about a tenth of the Gaza Strip. Multiply this by about a thousand and it's what "house-to-house" fighting looks like.

Hey, look what's happening in the auto industry:

Honda Motor is giving many U.S. factory workers an 11% pay bump and making other improvements for these employees, a move that follows major gains secured by the United Auto Workers union in Detroit last month.

The base wage increase is effective in January, according to a memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal. The Japanese automaker is also cutting the time it takes to reach the top wage in half to three from six years, a change that is similar to one won by the UAW in its negotiations with General Motors, Ford Motor and Chrysler-parent Stellantis.

Unions have long been important not just because of the gains they win for their members, but because even non-union shops are forced to keep pace. Toyota raised its payscales a week ago, and even Tesla is going to have to raise pay if they want to stay competitive for assembly line workers.

Now all we have to do is revive unions throughout the country. Sigh.

Daoud Kuttab is a Palestinian journalist and a former professor of journalism at Princeton University. Here's how he thinks Gaza should be governed after the war is over:

The answer for the question of what happens next should be clear. The Palestine Liberation Organization, which doesn’t include Hamas, needs to forge an agreement with Hamas and other Palestinian factions in Gaza.

The PLO’s executive committee, of which Abbas is the current chair, should be expanded to include individuals close to or nominated by Hamas. Similarly, the Palestinian Authority, which rules in the West Bank, should be reconstituted as an expanded emergency national unity government in which all Palestinian factions are part of a collective power-sharing arrangement.

This is insane. Hamas is openly and explicitly dedicated to the destruction of Israel. You don't have to approve of Israel's scorched-earth campaign in Gaza to recognize that recommending a power sharing agreement with Hamas is about like recommending a power sharing agreement with al-Qaeda. But Kuttab not only thinks it's reasonable, it "ought to be demanded by the international community and even by Israel."

It's true that no one can tell the Palestinians in Gaza who they're allowed to vote for. But if they vote for and support a terrorist group that's not only dedicated to Israel's destruction, but willing to prove it periodically, they can hardly expect anyone else to approve of it.

Tesla workers in Sweden are on strike because Tesla refuses to recognize their union. That's bad for Tesla, but things can get worse:

If Tesla is still balking on a deal by November 20, postal workers will stop delivering letters and packages addressed to the company.

Seriously? If the Swedish postal service disapproves of you they can stop delivering your mail? Damn.