Kevin Drum

What are the signs that democracy is failing in the United States. Here's a comprehensive list:

1. In 2020 Donald Trump tried to forcibly steal an election he lost.

This is true, and a substantial chunk of the Republican Party and Fox News eagerly helped him. That's about as anti-democratic as it gets. But also keep in mind that (a) they failed, (b) every court case went against them, and (c) all the folks involved have been indicted in state and federal courts, some of them multiple times.

Am I missing anything? I don't think so, but let me take on a few common arguments that are sure to come up:

The Electoral College is anti-democratic. It's not, really, but in any case it's been around since the beginning of the Republic. A liberal Democrat won the Electoral College in the most recent election.

The Senate is anti-democratic. Again, not really, but it's also been around since the beginning of the Republic. Democrats currently control it.

The Supreme Court is very conservative. True, but not because of any failure of democracy. It's partly due to happenstance and partly due to hardball politics.

The Dobbs decision rolled back abortion rights. This is bad, but not anti-democratic. Hell, even a lot of liberal legal experts thought Roe v. Wade was bad law.

A small rump of Republican extremists has gummed up Congress. They've tried to gum up Congress. For various reasons, they've mostly failed.

That same rump is trying to impeach Joe Biden for no particular reason. Yes, and it's nauseating. But they failed and mostly made laughingstocks of themselves in the process.

After the 2020 elections Republicans tried to undermine the voting process. This has a kernel of truth in some of the voting laws passed in red states, but it's been going on for decades. Most of it is fairly ordinary politics, and it's never succeeded.

Donald Trump will weaponize the Justice Department, the federal bureaucracy, and the military if he wins the White House in November. Maybe, maybe not, but corruption is different from anti-democratic. Anyway, he'll need help from Congress for most of this. And he has to win a democratically held election first.

Conservatives are very loud and annoying. Yes they are, and I'd add that they're unprincipled, paranoid, racist, and meanspirited. But that's a whole different kettle of fish than being anti-democratic.

Conservatives keep winning elections. Indeed they do, but in entirely democratic ways. This is more a failure of liberalism than anything else.

I know, I know: I'm being Pollyanna. Maybe so. But Republicans have had anti-democratic impulses for decades and it's never amounted to much. Mostly they're just infuriated at the fact that they keep losing. Women, minorities, atheists, gays, poor people, and the disabled have all made steady progress despite the best efforts of conservatives to stop them. Conservatives have little to show for their efforts of the past half century except tax cuts for the rich.¹ That's small solace for most of them.

Anyway, look around. Look at the country compared to ten or twenty or thirty years ago. Does it seem less democratic? More authoritarian? I'd say just the opposite. Daily life has become so democratic it almost hurts, and the heavy hand of the police state has been slowly but steadily reined in. That's why cops are so mad these days. It's true that we're more polarized and angry than usual, but that's got nothing to do with the amount of freedom or liberty we enjoy.² We are freer, richer, and, yes, more liberal than we've ever been.

¹And, more recently, abortion. But that's turning into a Pyrrhic victory which they don't seem to be taking much satisfaction in. Public opinion hasn't changed; the number of abortions hasn't changed; and politically the whole thing has been a disaster.

²It's largely because of Fox News, but that's a topic for another day.

The Wall Street Journal editorial page continues its endless tedious jihad about Joe Biden being old and infirm:

When the New York Post asked why Mr. Biden has taken to wearing tennis shoes with his suits, this was the comment from deputy press secretary Andrew Bates: “I know y’all aren’t partial to presidents who exercise, but don’t worry—you’ll get used to it.” More likely they’re afraid the President will fall.

Does anyone even remember that Biden broke his foot in 2020 right after the election? It's healed, but it's been painful ever since. He also suffers from neuropathy in his feet—and as a fellow victim I can tell you this is no joke. I don't wear dress shoes anymore either.

As best as I can tell, Biden has several physical impairments: pain and neuropathy in his feet, arthritis in his spine, and a lack of dexterity in his larynx. But he doesn't seem to have any mental issues at all, which is more than I can say for Donald Trump these days.

Joe Biden has passed a lot of significant legislation, but he's also developed a reputation for "small ball" initiatives: minor rules that attack everyday annoyances. Here's a non-exhaustive sampling:

1. Hearing aids. Allows low-cost hearing aids to be purchased without a prescription.
2. Insulin. Limits the cost of insulin to $35 per month for people on Medicare and for most people with private insurance.
3. Junk fees. Widespread efforts to rein in the hidden fees charged by banks, airlines, hotels and hundreds of other industries.
4. Overtime. Makes overtime pay mandatory for salaried workers earning up to $58,000. Affects about 4 million workers.
5. Robocalls. New rule cuts down on illegal overseas robocalls.
6. Surprise health care billing. Bans hospitals from charging huge fees for out-of-network specialists.
7. Late fees. Cuts the typical credit card late payment fee from $32 to $8.
8. Airline refunds. Requires airlines to automatically make refunds if flights are delayed or canceled.
9. Noncompetes. Bans employers from requiring noncompete agreements when they hire workers.
10. "Click to cancel." Proposed rule that makes it as easy to cancel an online service as it is to sign up.
11. Ticket fees up front. Requires ticket sellers to disclose all fees up front, not late in the purchase process.

Question: has any of this done Biden any good politically? It seems like it should, at least a little bit, but I doubt it. Too many of these things are invisible (who notices when you don't get a surprise bill from your hospital or you don't get a spam call?) and the others don't get enough promotion for anyone to credit Biden. The hearing aid thing, for example, ought to be a pretty big deal for a lot of people, but who even remembers it? If you buy a great hearing aid for $500 at Costco, does anyone think about Biden when they pay the bill?

The feds have decided that Tesla's Autopilot technology needs to get better:

The issue here isn't how good Tesla's unassisted driving is. The issue is that Tesla is supposed to make sure drivers are paying attention regardless, typically by beeping and alerting when they take their hands off the wheel or their eyes wander. The NHTSA has concluded that Tesla needs to update their software to do better on this score.

That said, it's worth a note that Teslas aren't especially dangerous. Just the opposite. The NHTSA estimates that in a single year there are about 139 fatal crashes per million cars in the US. Among Teslas the number is only 64.

There's no telling why this is. Maybe Tesla drivers use Autopilot a lot and this cuts down on fatal crashes. Maybe Tesla drivers just tend to be safer than average. Or maybe Teslas log fewer miles per car than most models. The available data just doesn't let us know.

Nor do we know anything about the rate of Tesla fatalities with and without Autopilot engaged. That data should be available, I think, but Tesla has never produced it. However, they do make this claim:

In the 4th quarter of 2022, we recorded one crash for every 4.85 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, we recorded one crash for every 1.40 million miles driven. By comparison, the most recent data available from NHTSA and FHWA (from 2021) shows that in the United States there was an automobile crash approximately every 652,000 miles.

I would naturally prefer data produced independently, not by Tesla itself. For one thing, it's not entirely clear how they measure "using Autopilot technology." Still, if I had to guess, I'd say that their numbers are close to right. Teslas with autopilot engaged are probably safer than Teslas without autopilot and a lot safer than the average human-driven car.

This is from a government record I randomly ran across today:

“Document(s)” is used in the broadest sense of the word and shall mean all original written, printed, typed, recorded, or graphic matter whatsoever, however produced or reproduced, of every kind, nature, and description, and all non-identical copies of both sides thereof, including, but not limited to, papers, letters, memoranda, correspondence, communications, electronic mail (e-mail) messages (existing in hard copy and/or in electronic storage), faxes, mailgrams, telegrams, cables, telex messages, notes, annotations, working papers, drafts, minutes, records, audio and video recordings, data, databases, other information bases, summaries, charts, tables, graphics, other visual displays, photographs, statements, interviews, opinions, reports, newspaper articles, studies, analyses, evaluations, interpretations, contracts, agreements, jottings, agendas, bulletins, notices, announcements, instructions, blueprints, drawings, as-builts, changes, manuals, publications, work schedules, journals, statistical data, desk, portable and computer calendars, appointment books, diaries, travel reports, lists, tabulations, computer printouts, data processing program libraries, data processing inputs and outputs, microfilms, microfiches, statements for services, resolutions, financial statements, governmental records, business records, personnel records, work orders, pleadings, discovery in any form, affidavits, motions, responses to discovery, all transcripts, administrative filings and all mechanical, magnetic, photographic and electronic records or recordings of any kind, including any storage media associated with computers, including, but not limited to, information on hard drives, floppy disks, backup tapes, and zip drives, electronic communications, including but not limited to, the Internet and shall include any drafts or revisions pertaining to any of the foregoing.

I guess that should cover things. It's from a public record, so feel free to appropriate it if you happen to need an expansive definition of document.

Here is Hilbert surveying his vast domains, like Alexander after he had conquered the known world. Known to him, that is.

The Guardian today has a piece about Allan Lichtman's famous "13 keys" to winning the White House, which have a strong record of predicting the eventual winner. The party in the White House has to lose six of them to get voted out, so let's play along. Here are the 13 keys along with my judgment for each of them:

1. NO (22 seats less). Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the US House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. YES. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. YES. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. YES. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. YES. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. YES (2.4% vs. 1.6%). Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. YES. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. YES. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. YES. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. ???. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. NO. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. NO. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. NO. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

As Lichtman points out, many of his keys are judgment calls. For example, do the Gaza protests count as "sustained social unrest"? I'd say no. Nor do I think RFK Jr. is a "major" third-party candidate. And I can't make a call at all on "foreign/military failure." I don't think the Afghanistan withdrawal was a failure, but lots of people disagree.

Anyway, by my count Biden loses only four of the keys—five at most. So he should be a winner in November. Lichtman himself will make his own prediction in the summer.

David Brooks has a remarkable column in the New York Times today dedicated to one thing: our rising national debt. The reason it's remarkable has nothing to do with the subject matter. I'm not a big deficit hawk, but the long and steady rise in the national debt is at least concerning:

Even after removing the pandemic spike, the trendline is pretty clear: the national debt is now growing $2 trillion per year and shows no particular sign of slowing down.

This is not sustainable forever, so it's hardly remarkable that Brooks is worried about it. What's remarkable is that in the entire column he mentions tax increases only once and in passing. Then there's this:

Ultimately responsibility lies with the voters. In the 1990s, Americans saw how high government debt was raising their interest rates. Voters put tremendous pressure on politicians to get the fiscal house in order. Along came Ross Perot and deficit reduction plans under Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton. Voters today have not yet made that connection. When they do, I suspect the political landscape will shift massively.

Again, no mention that these "deficit reduction plans" both involved higher taxes. But everyone who's not merely shilling for Republicans knows this is the only way to rein in the deficit. You could completely eliminate Medicaid and the entire domestic budget and half the defense budget.......and you still wouldn't cut the annual deficit to zero.

Everyone knows this. Federal spending isn't rising because Congress is out of control. It's rising because we have to spend more money on old people, something we've known forever. There's nothing anyone can do about this.

So if you're worried about the mounting national debt—and you should be, at least a little bit—there's only one way to reduce it: tax hikes. Not huge ones, but not tiny ones either. That's just the way it is. No one serious can avoid it.

March was another good-news-bad-news month for PCE inflation:

Headline PCE inflation dropped a bit to 3.9%, but core PCE increased to 3.9%. The inflation level is proving to be a little more stubborn than anyone hoped for.

On a conventional year-over-year basis, headline PCE came in at 2.7% and core PCE was 2.8%.

Due mostly to laziness, I suppose, I've been laboring under the impression that last year the International Court of Justice ruled there was a "plausible" case to be made for genocide in Gaza. But Joan Donoghue, who was president of the court at the time, says this isn't so:

The court decided that the Palestinians had a plausible right to be protected from genocide.... But it didn't decide that the claim of genocide is plausible.... The shorthand that often appears, which is that there's a plausible case of genocide, isn't what the court decided.

Here's her full answer during an interview with the BBC: